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Bring a sweatshirt to the fair

I know – it’s a little cool for late August. I won’t have to recite the windchill reading; suffice to say you may want to grab a light jacket or sweatshirt before heading out the door this weekend. A crisp, Canadian breeze will make it a bit harder to find the mercury in your backyard thermometer, daytime highs stuck in the 60s across much of Minnesota – computer models hinting at some 50-degree highs over far eastern MN and Wisconsin later today.

Sunday still appears to be the nicer day of the weekend, less wind (as high pressure drifts directly over our heads) and more sunshine – fewer instability cumulus clouds puffing up during the PM hours, afternoon highs well up into the 60s. Given a choice in the matter I would plan my State Fair Adventure for Sunday.

WRF/NMM Temperatures for 7 pm this evening. It gets milder the farther west you travel across Minnesota – check out the big swirl of 50-degree readings over Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.

Frost Update. Try not to panic. Just seeing the F-word in August is enough to send a small percentage of Minnesotans into convulsive, screaming fits. “Frost in late August – what does that mean for October?” I guess I’m not shocked, we’ve had a tentative summer, July and August running cooler than average – fewer 90 degree days, not nearly as many sweaty, sticky, 70-degree dew point days (which I’m just fine with, btw). The WRF/NMM model is still hinting at some 30-degree lows Sunday morning, mainly north, toward Sandstone and Hinckley, and just south/east, toward Hastings, Cannon Falls and Northfield. I’m a little more inclined to believe that some of the coldest nooks and crannies of northeastern MN, near Embarrass, Tower and Ely, could wake up to an isolated frost. Right now this does NOT look like a widespread frost (or killing freeze of 3-5+ hours below 28, capable of killing off all annuals). I think we’ll have a bit too much of a breeze and residual cloud cover for that.

Forecast temperatures for 7 am Sunday morning. The epicenter of the cold air appears to be just south/east of the Twin Cities.

Danny, where are you? This morning’s satellite image shows a very disorganized tropical storm Danny being swept northward, absorbed into an area of low pressure which will soak much of the mid Atlantic states and New England. But Danny proved to be something of a tropical disappointment. The computer models were (all) wrong. They predicted Danny would strengthen into a hurricane and remain just offshore. It never happened, the result of too much wind shear aloft or ocean water temperatures not as warm as predicted? Again, it’s worth repeating: NHC, the National Hurricane Center, does a MUCH better job predicting the track of tropical storms and hurricanes than they do with intensity, by an order of magnitude it’s easier to predict where a specific storm will go, then whether it will be a tropical storm, a category 1 or a category 4 storm.

Enough distractions, back to Minnesota weather. Dry weather prevails next week, in fact I don’t see much of any chance of showers or T-storms until the Labor Day weekend (of course!) Could have predicted that 6 months ago, right? Temperatures will remain close to average for late August/early September, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, although the GFS model is hinting at 80+ by next weekend, maybe well into the 80s for Labor Day Monday (with a few rough T-storms around). Stay tuned.

Paul’s Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Morning sun, PM clouds, a cool wind. Winds: N/NW 10-20. High: 66

Tonight: Clearing, chilly for late August. Isolated, patchy frost possible from near Mille Lacs and Sandstone northward to Embarrass and Tower. Low: 42 (probably no frost within 75 miles of the cities)

Sunday: Bright sun, lighter winds. High: 69

Monday: Sunny and beautiful. High: 75

Tuesday: Warm sunshine, still dry. High: 77

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, showers probably pass south/west. High: 78

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sunshine. High: 7

Friday: Promising start to the holiday weekend. Plenty of sun. High: 79

Saturday: Partly sunny, more humid. Slight chance of thunder. High: 81

Sunday: Sticky with intervals of sun, warmer. T-storms most likely far north. High: 83

Monday (Labor Day): Still warm for early September. Hazy sun, humid with a few strong T-storms nearby. High: 86

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