I’m back and counting superdelegates

I’ve been away for more than a week. Back now. My mom says hi and predicts big things for the Internet.

In case you took your eye off the race for superdelegates in my absence, here’s the update:

The pace of new superdelegate commitments, while still slow, has picked up and continues to favor Barack Obama. Since Sen. Amy Klobuchar endorsed Obama on March 31, he has picked up eight additional superdelegates, including one governor (Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming). Hillary Clinton has picked up two but lost three who had previously come out for her. (All of this, once again, is per the very helpful and superdelegate-obsessed demconwatch superdelegate tracker.

The net of all this is that Clinton’s lead of 24 among superdelegates (245-221, this doesn’t count Michigan or Florida) has reached another new low. It peaked in early February at just under 100 and has declined steadily since. 

Here are the other relevant statistics:

Obama pledged delegates (not counting supers): 1,415

Clinton pledged delegates: 1,254

Obama lead among pledged delegates: 161

Obama total delegates: 1,636

Clinton total delegates:  1,499

Obama lead among total delegates: 137

Needed to nominate: 2023.5

Delegates pledged to John Edwards: 18

Un-superdelegates yet to be chosen: 566

Superdelegates still uncommitted: 327

Total delegates still gettable (including those now pledged to Edwards): 911

Portion of those Obama needs to clinch: 42.5 percent

Portion Clinton needs to clinch: 57.5 percent

(All of the above math assumes that Michigan and Florida delegations are not seated.)

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Comments (1)

  1. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 04/09/2008 - 11:41 am.

    In other words, mathematically it’s still very much a race — a 161 delegate lead out of a total n umber of delegates of 4000+ is hardly commanding.
    The fact that Obama has not yet accumulated enough votes to win shows that the race is very much undecided — if he were really that much ahead of Clinton he would have in fact (as opposed to in media) clinched the nomination.

    The numbers show that Clinton needs to get less than 60% of the available delegates.
    This is a challenge (no question that she’s behind) but far from impossible.

    The real question is whether whichever candidate loses will be able to convince their die hards to support the erstwhile rival against McClain.

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