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Latest guv poll results good for Dayton in primary and general election

As MinnPoster Doug Grow mentioned in his Margaret Anderson Keilliher piece this a.m., there’s a new poll out on the guv race. Here are a few more details on the poll’s findings:

It was done for KSTP by their regular pollster, SurveyUSA. SurveyUSA is a robodialer, generally the most highly regarded of that category. It covered both the DFL primary and the possible general matchups. The results were all good for Mark Dayton, since it shows him leading by a significant margin ion the primary and the only DFL nominee running ahead of Emmer. They are mixed but mostly bad for Tom Emmer since his numbers against all potential rivals are down since the previous poll. Matt Entenza, while he still polls third in the primary field, can point to progress over other polls that showed him a much more distant third. It’s hard to see anything favorable in the results for MAK.

Dayton and Entenza are both advertising aggressively. MAK hasn’t hit the airwaves, doesn’t have the funds for a major blitz and is relying on the ground game, phone list, volunteer support and other advantages that come with the DFL endorsement. Horner draws an identical 12 percent in all trial heats, which is not good news for him, since he has been touting a recent poll that showed him closer to 20 percent. That poll has triggered a controversy because the pollster is a friend and supporter of Horner’s.

In announcing the results last night on the air, KSTP’s Tom Hauser said that in all of the general electioni matchups, Horner takes more votes from DFLers than from Repubs, although he didn’t give details.

The survey was taken Monday through Wednesday of this week. SurveyUSA says it interview 500 Minnesotans who are likely to vote in the Aug. 10 DFL primary (giving a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points for that question) and 1,617 likely to vote in the November general election.

For the DFL primary, the poll came out:

  • 39% Dayton
  • 26% Kelliher
  • 22% Entenza
  • 3% Idusogie
  • 11% Undecided

Peter Idusogie, in case you haven’t seen the name before, is a little-known candidate for the Dem nomination. His website is here.

Dayton’s lead is outside the margin of sampling error. His strength is among seniors and outside the Twin Cities. Kelliher ties Dayton in the Twin Cities metro area. Entenza ties Dayton among Independents who plan to vote in the primary.

SurveyUSA ran the general election matchups with each of the DFLers against Republican endorsee Tom Emmer and Independence Party endorsee Tom Horner. They found Dayton edging Emmer with Emmer edging MAK and Entenza. All of the leads were within the margins for error and therefore can be called statistically insignificant. The trial heats look like this (with this larger sample, SurveyUSA claims an error margin of plus/minus 2.5 percentage points).

With Dayton as the DFL nominee:

  • Dayton 38%
  • Emmer 35%
  • Horner 12%
  • Undecided 15%

With Kelliher as the DFL nominee:

  • Emmer 35%
  • Kelliher 33%
  • Horner 12%
  • Undecided 21%

With Entenza: 

  • Emmer: 37%
  • Entenza: 33%
  • Horner: 12%
  • Undecided: 18%

Comparing those trial heats with an identical SurveyUSA poll of six weeks ago:

Dayton is up 4 points; Emmer is down 7 in that matchup.
Kelliher is flat; Emmer is down 6 points in that matchup.
Entenza is up 2 points; Emmer is down 5.

Oh, and I forgot to mention. Polls are crack for political junkies.

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Comments (2)

  1. Submitted by John E Iacono on 06/19/2010 - 12:14 pm.

    39% Dayton
    26% Kelliher
    22% Entenza
    3% Idusogie
    11% Undecided

    Looks like the dems pretty much agree with my previous post about “most preferred” to “least preferred” for repubs to run against.

    But it’s a long time from June to November.

  2. Submitted by Bernice Vetsch on 06/21/2010 - 12:24 pm.

    After the August primary, whichever Dem wins has time to go on the attack against Emmer (with the help of all Dem voters and previous candidates) and close that gap handily.

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