Campaigns are gearing up for the stretch run, and local TV stations are prearing to get rich off the last month of political ads but, with the election still five weeks (minus one day) away, politics guru Stu Rothenberg argues in a piece today that “most campaigns have only another week or two to change the likely outcome of their contests.”
Many political scientists question whether campaigns really have much to do with the outcomes at all, compared with factors like the economy that create the psychological and emotional architecture of campaign years. But Rothenberg is making a closer to the ground argument. One factor is early voting, which is allowed in more and more states and puts a significant number of voters beyond the reach of persuasion for the simple reason that they’ve already voted.
And a politics-weary public will appreciate Rothenberg’s argument that:
“The sheer number of TV spots, direct-mail pieces and automated telephone calls received by voters in the last month before an election can cause voters to ‘turn off’ completely, ignoring political campaign messages as if they were some sort of unwanted media spam that is immediately destined to be deleted.”