Post/ABC Poll: Romney leads, Perry sinks, Cain rises

As measured by polls, the potential Repub primary electorate continues to gyrate pretty wildly in the race for the party’s presidential nomination.

In a new Wash Post/ABC poll out this morning, Mitt Romney is back on top among Republicans and Repub leaners polled. The double big surprise in these numbers is how fast Rick Perry is falling (down 13 percentage points from the same poll a month earlier) and how fast Herman Cain is rising (up from four percent a month ago to 16 now).

The pollsters tried the race with and without Chris Christy in the mix. When Christy is included, he receives just 11 percent support, which is a blow to the current hype that he will rock the race if he enters.

Minnesota’s own Michele Bachmann continues to struggle for relevance. In this poll, she attracts seven percent support, which ties her with Newt Gingrich for fifth place.

My advice is to take this poll and all such with plenty of salt. That said, without Christy or Sarah Palin in the race, the Post/ABC pollsters say this is how the race stands:

  • Romney: 25 percent.
  • Cain and Perry tied: 16.
  • Ron Paul: 11.
  • Gingrich/Bachmann: 7.

Trial heat matchups between Pres. Obama and some of the Repub frontrunners show the race too close to call, although Obama’s approval rating hit a new low (54/42 disapproval/approval) for this poll and, when asked whether they expect the president or his eventual Republican opponent to win, the overall sample, by 55-37, say they expect Obama to lose. Obama has begun referring to himself as an “underdog” in the race.

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Comments (13)

  1. Submitted by Thomas Swift on 10/04/2011 - 10:18 am.

    Eric, I’m taking this election more seriously than I have for awhile, because I know that whomever we (the GOP) nominate is going to be the next President, and that man or woman is going to have to be capable of actually leading this country.

    I think that I speak for a lot of conservatives when I say I could live with Romney, Cain or Perry, but when one looks at the backgrounds it is Cain that has the stuff.

    I just pray that he’s not another Fred Thompson.

  2. Submitted by Ray Schoch on 10/04/2011 - 11:01 am.

    Re: Republican candidates, it’s all about the money. Big donors don’t want to appear to be fools for writing checks to the wrong people. Mrs. Bachmann continues to be an embarrassment, Mr. Gingrich is a serial adulterer campaigning on “morality,” Mr. Christy has said quite plainly that he’s not going to run, and Sarah Palin has (fortunately) made herself irrelevant. Cain’s rise is interesting, and Ron Paul is hanging in there, as well. Romney has been a corporate darling, and offhand, I don’t see a reason for that to change, barring some major gaffe on his part.

    More than a grain of salt seems appropriate for reading the results, but in any case, we’ll know a lot more in 6 months.

    Obama’s “underdog” label seems accurate to me. Some of it is self-inflicted, much of it the result of self-serving political maneuvering by Republicans.

  3. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 10/04/2011 - 11:33 am.

    Christy’s a tough-talking liberal which makes some people think he’s a conservative.

  4. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 10/04/2011 - 11:50 am.

    Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter when during a televised debate he asked the American people, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Carter was finished.

    Obama saved the republicans the trouble when yesterday he told ABC News that, “No, people are NOT better off than they were four years ago.”

    Thanks, man.

  5. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/04/2011 - 02:39 pm.

    In other words, honesty is the worst policy.

  6. Submitted by Neal Rovick on 10/04/2011 - 04:02 pm.

    Cain–a non-Mormon with very little recorded history that seems somewhat sane and practical and actually has a concrete proposal or two.

    Sounds like a powerhouse of a candidate in the current field.

  7. Submitted by Thomas Swift on 10/04/2011 - 04:46 pm.

    “…very little recorded history that seems somewhat sane and practical and actually has a concrete proposal or two.”

    “Sounds like a powerhouse of a candidate in the current field.” Said Neal, whistfully….

    “If only”, eh, Neal?

  8. Submitted by Richard Schulze on 10/04/2011 - 06:08 pm.

    Its great luck for Obama that he is up against Perry and Romney. With Perry you get a smoother Bush but a Bush all the same, and with Mitt? well we’ve seen it all before, why should this time be any different.

  9. Submitted by rolf westgard on 10/05/2011 - 08:11 am.

    It’s still Obama and the Seven Dwarfs. Mr Swift may be disappointed in 2012, regardless of which Dwarf is chosen by the Repubs. It will take more than four years to clean up the Bush mess.

  10. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/05/2011 - 09:43 am.

    Right, Rolf–
    Obama still polls better than Congress, and the Demo Congress slightly better than the Repub.

  11. Submitted by Bill Gleason on 10/05/2011 - 11:56 am.

    When Obama wins the election, Swiftee, it will be a reflection on the pitiful quality of the current GOP candidates. Can you say RomneyCare?

    And of course upon close reflection Perry will go the way of your old friend Michelle Bachmann.

    Perhaps you should change your focus and go into political cartooning?

  12. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 10/05/2011 - 12:32 pm.

    Unfortunately for Obama, he isn’t running against the “republican congress.” So while the comparison may be comforting to some, it’s meaningless.

  13. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/05/2011 - 08:18 pm.

    So far the Republican congress is ALL he has to run against.

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