Polls suggest Gingrich imploding in Iowa

In case you took your eye off the bouncing ball for a moment, several polls show that Newt Gingrich has not only fallen out of first place among likely Iowa caucsus goers, he’s fallen to third or even fourth.

Several polls now have Ron Paul leading the field, generally followed by Mitt Romney. Several of the polls show Rick Perry and/or Rick Santorum moving up fairly sharply. Minnesota’s own Michele Bachmann isn’t getting much of a bump in the most recent polls but is flirting with double digits.

The political number crunchers still don’t consider Paul to have much chance of being the nominee, but it seems quite possible he will win Iowa, which is in many ways uniquely suited to his strengths.

The two most recent polls that are causing everyone to reevaluate the race are summarized here. Political numerologist Nate Silver has developed some formula for blending the numbers together and showing the likely vote range of each of the contenders and forecasting the likelihood that each will win Iowa. It currently shows that likelihood of winning as:

Paul with a 52 percent chance of winning Iowa, followed by Romney at 28 percent and everyone else in single-digits.

In 2004, when the Dems were the party with the big Iowa field, a month before the caucuses it seemed impossible for anyone other than Howard Dean to win there. Two weeks out, it was a two-man race between Dean and Dick Gephardt. They ended finishing third and fourth behind John Kerry and John Edwards. Keep your shirts on, folks.

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Comments (6)

  1. Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 12/20/2011 - 09:25 am.

    Gingrich has steadfastly maintained a candidates right to disregard the actual results of the Iowa poll, much as the executive can disregard the Supreme Court. 🙂

  2. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 12/20/2011 - 09:49 am.

    The Supreme Court is supreme amongst the courts. It is not supreme amongst the branches of government. Only a lawyer would have a reason to disagree with that and that’s because he was brainwashed in law school.

    Gingrich has been beaten down in the Iowan polls with millions of dollars in negative TV ads from Dr. Paul.

  3. Submitted by Ray Schoch on 12/20/2011 - 01:46 pm.

    “…Gingrich has been beaten down in the Iowan polls with millions of dollars in negative TV ads from Dr. Paul.”

    Since Mr. Gingrich is right up there with Mrs. Bachmann as a danger to both the nation and the world if either of them should acquire regular access to the Oval Office, if Mr. Tester is correct, I find myself in the very rare position of cheering for Mr. Paul.

  4. Submitted by Bernice Vetsch on 12/20/2011 - 04:30 pm.

    Gingrich is possessed of what is sometimes called right-wing Christian Zionist Fundamentalism, a Zionism more extreme than that of any 999 out of 1,000 Jewish people, most of whom want to see justice for both parties in the Middle East rather than the destruction or banishment of the Palestinian people.

    In one debate speech for instance, Gingrich said outrageous things about Palestinians — describing, for instance, textbooks (cooked up by his or someone’s hate-filled imagination), used by Palestinian schools that supposedly ask children math questions like this one: “If there are 13 Jews and you kill five, how many are left?”

    This is a highly educated “historian” who thinks he should be our president?

  5. Submitted by Richard Schulze on 12/20/2011 - 07:58 pm.

    Didn’t Herman Cain “refudiate” Newt when he said, “We need a leader, not a reader”?

  6. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 12/21/2011 - 07:38 am.

    Herman’s attempt at humor was referring to Obama being attached at the hip with his teleprompter. It’s too bad most people on the left didn’t get the joke (or pretended not to.)

    And Ray, most thinking people in this country would pay cash money to see the Gingrich-Obama debates, because you would see a sharp and clear contrast between an American capitalist and traditionalist versus a European secular socialist.

    The school children would learn more about American exceptionalism than they’ll ever learn in the government schools and their parents would be offered a real choice about the direction of the country.

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