Republican race so far in one easy graphic

The excellent poll-watcher Charles Franklin of UW-Madison and now also of Polls and Votes, captures the action to date wordlessly. The graphic is based on his practice of averaging all of the credible national Repub preference polls and creating a trend line.

The previous sharp rise and fall of Bachmann, then Perry, then Cain seems almost humorous in retrospect. You’ll note that Bachmann’s spike didn’t get as high as the others (although hers was the first and the field was more crowded then). You should note that Gingrich’s rise is the steepest of all, has risen to the highest heights and, at least so far, hasn’t turned around.

Romney’s curve is the most complicated. It never goes above 25 percent (although Cain and Perry both broke through that level momentarily and now Gingrich has left 25 in the dust. Note that Romney’s curve twice tried to establish upward momentum but couldn’t sustain it. And — perhaps the biggest current worry for Team Romney — note that the current decline (he seems to be getting no benefit from Cain’s demise) is the steepest fall he has suffered. Until now, it seemed his challenge was to break through the ceiling of about 25 percent. But at the moment, his challenge is to avoid falling through the floor of 15.

Check out the full graphic on

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Comments (6)

  1. Submitted by Michael Ernst on 12/06/2011 - 01:23 pm.

    While his methodology may be sound, his presentation leaves something to be desired. Try this:

  2. Submitted by Joe Musich on 12/06/2011 - 09:47 pm.

    The newt Nixon.

  3. Submitted by William Pappas on 12/07/2011 - 06:24 am.

    These candidates have so many flaws that even republicans find them easily rejectable. Once in the lead it simply takes a broad light shining on their record, personality or personal life and poof, support gone. When the entire presidential field of a single political party rejects reason, logic, history, science and fact bubbles of popularity result due to the pesky presence of the truth.

  4. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 12/07/2011 - 07:22 am.

    Compared to the fraud in the white house, anyone will do. The contest is simply one of personal preference of social conservative, libertarian and someone in between. It’s been a fun contest of competing ideas and personalities that the left-wing press has tried to derail but without much success.

    I’ve been a Gingrich supporter since 1994 and I see no reason to change now. I can’t wait for the debates between Newt and the teleprompter.

  5. Submitted by Lora Jones on 12/07/2011 - 08:42 am.

    “I’ve been a Gingrich supporter since 1994 . . .” Amazing how much that explains.

  6. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 12/07/2011 - 09:49 am.

    “I can’t wait for the debates between Newt and the teleprompter.”

    Yeah, the newt often has problems focusing on his topic. I suspect that the teleprompter would win.

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