Obama, 49; Romney, 45, according to new Pew Poll

First of all, I promise not to write a poll story every day (as one easily could). But after yesterday’s post on the Gallup tracking poll (showing Romney leading by a statistically insignificant 47-45), the new poll just out by Pew (Obama by 49-45, which is on the edge of statistical significance) seems worth mentioning. I’ll confess that Gallup and Pew are the two polling organizations for which I have developed the most respect over the years, so I generally give their polls more notice.

A month ago, Pew found Obama with an 11-point lead, so the new numbers certainly show a tightening of the race. There are still relatively fresh polls (like this one by CNN) that show Obama with a big lead.

Pews says: “Obama continues to owe his lead to support from women, college graduates, blacks, Latinos and lower income voters – all of whom support him over Romney by double-digits.”

On the issue front, Pew finds that Obama holds double-digit advantages among voters who rate highly the issues of the environment (Obama leads among this group by 39 points), education (Obama +22), birth control (+19) and health care (+15). Romney has large leads among those highly rate the importance of the budget deficit (+19) and Iran (+14).

Obama leads among women by 13 percentage points; Romney leads among men by 6.

One impressive gap between Dems and Repubs is how much they say they care about environmental issues. Among Dems, 74 percent say considerations of the environment will be very important in their voting preference. Among Repubs, just 26 percent say that. This dwarfs the comparable gaps on all other issues in the poll.

Comments (3)

  1. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 04/17/2012 - 03:36 pm.

    An interesting number in the Pew poll

    The size of the swing vote has shrunk in four years from 33% to 23%.

    Among registered voters:

    _____________Jun 2008___Apr 2012
    certain dem______38%______39%
    certain repub_____29%______37%
    swing voter______33%______23%

    figures may not total 100% due to rounding

  2. Submitted by Richard Schulze on 04/17/2012 - 09:17 pm.

    It’ll come down to voter turn-out

    Nate Silver wrote an interesting piece on what to look for in polling data.

    “Notes on Poll-Watching, as Shift Toward General Election Season Begins”

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/notes-on-poll-watching-as-shift-toward-general-election-season-begins/

  3. Submitted by Jon Kingstad on 04/18/2012 - 08:45 am.

    Glad to hear

    Eric, that you’re not going to write a poll column every day. IMHO, you’ve already written two too many so far. Americans seem to have an unhealthy obsession with meaningless numbers and statistics. By”unhealthy” I mean far too many people will base their decision to vote on how they think other people will be voting. I particularly deplore the many “low information voters” who follow the crowd rather than inform themselves. I personally know people who have just come to the realization that “OMG,Romney is a Mormon!” or think Obama is a Muslim because he has a “Muslim name”.

    So rather than writing any more columns about polls, maybe you should write alternating columns until the election about “Romney is a Mormon!” and “Obama is not a Muslim” and is a native born U.S. citizen. Who knows, by November, maybe everyone will at least know two things which are true.

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