SurveyUSA poll: In Minnesota, Obama 52; Romney 38

I hadn’t seen a public poll on the state of the presidential race in Minnesota in several months, but SurveyUSA is out with a new one, conducted for KSTP-TV, based on robo-dialed interviews with 516 registered voters.

The sample is small and no likely voter screen was used and I’m old-fashioned enough to always mention when it’s a robodialer. But most of the margins in this poll are so big that it’s hard to ignore.

If the election was held today whom would you support?

Obama: 52%

Romney 38%.

noteworthy: Obama even leads 50-41 among men.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing?

Approve: 56%

Disapprove: 33%.

Noteworthy: Among Repubs, it’s 31/59.

Do you approve or disapprove of the Legislature?

Approve: 21%

Disapprove: 67%

Noteworthy: Even Repub voters disapprove by a whopping 28/60.

Do you agree or disagree with Pres. Obama on same-sex marriage?

Agree: 52%

Disagree: 42%.

Noteworthy: Among Repubs, disagree wins by 28/66.

The questions above are paraphrased by me. There are a bunch of Vikings stadium questions in there too, although they seem to have been designed before the final vote. To see those or the exact question working, here’s the SurveyUSA results page. And here’s the Real Clear Politics history of Obama/Romney polling in Minnesota.

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Comments (5)

  1. Submitted by Ray Schoch on 05/14/2012 - 09:38 pm.

    There are still…

    …nearly 6 months to go before election day, and we don’t even know who the VP candidate will be for the Republicans, so quite a bit of salt needs to be applied here. Still, I think it’s Obama’s election to lose, even though there are big issues – the economy being #1 – that are largely out of his control, and he won’t get any help at all between now and election day on anything else from the folks across the aisle.

    Frankly, I’m surprised on two counts. First, that there’s anyone in Minnesota who’s not a multimillionaire and who’d still be willing to vote for the “Candidate of the 1 percent,” and second, that, with all the negative statements from the right about Obama and government in general, Obama nonetheless has a double-digit lead over Romney in ANY sort of poll in the state.

    Not at all surprising are the numbers regarding the legislature and/or Mark Dayton. Moderates on both sides – I’m guessing there are still a few, hiding in dark places until nightfall – probably recognize that Dayton really is trying to serve the state as a whole. He’s certainly far less partisan than I anticipated. Not so the Republicans, who may well reap in the fall what they’ve sown in the winter and spring.

  2. Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 05/15/2012 - 09:12 am.

    Who’s listening to the Republicans?

    I think the Republicans are serious trouble, especially in MN. First you have to realize that they’ve been running on the exact same issues for 50 years now. They make claims now and then to focus on something else like jobs, but when they elected it always turns out to be a bait-n-switch. I don’t think anyone at this point thinks the Republicans had any intent or capacity to focus any laser attention on jobs.

    On top of that, the Tea Party takeover is now tearing the party apart and rendering it unelectable. People are always inclined to be critical of congress and legislators, but the Republicans have delivered nothing but stalemate and divisiveness since getting into power. The recent drift towards even more extreme and uncompromising candidates has rendered them even more irrelevant.

    Worse than being irrelevant, Republicans have become useless. Look, the business boys (most of them) put their money and support where they think it will benefit them the most, and Gay marriage and voter ID do nothing for business, yet that’s all they got out this legislature. Transportation and development funding business wanted died at the hands of anti-choo choo ideologues.

    Meanwhile for whatever reason the population is drifting away. A marriage amendment that would have easily passed five years ago is now in serious jeopardy, faith in magic plans revolving around free markets and tax cuts has waned in a big way. And the devotion to SUVs and more lanes to drive them on is giving way to nice-ride bikes and rails.

    Anything the Republicans say about Obama is predictable and usually kinda crazy at this point so who’s listening? They’re still going on about his birth certificate.

  3. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 05/15/2012 - 09:25 am.

    Base

    Usually 90% of voters vote for a party, not for a candidate. The remainder usually make up their minds at the last minute.
    If there’s a message here (and I agree with Ray), it’s that the Republicans are having trouble holding onto their base in states where the social conservative issues are not dominant.

  4. Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 05/15/2012 - 11:37 am.

    90%?

    They’ll need 100% to beat Obama. And what party? Republicans got in last time with Tea Party and Libertarian votes. That demographic is notoriously fickle and prone to throw their vote on ideological grounds. I don’t see them getting behind Romney in a big way.

  5. Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 05/16/2012 - 07:28 am.

    Obama’s luck

    Once again, I have to say that the Democrats (and all of us) have lucked out. Obama isn’t going to win because of his strengths, he’s seriously undermined his own credibility in many ways, and screwed up massively for no good reason. He’s looking strong because the Republicans are collapsing. This is how Clinton won, not so much because of his strengths but because Bush and Dole were duds and the Republicans were in disarray at the time.

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