Pew Poll: Obama 50; Romney 43

Please don’t overreact on a poll-by-poll basis. It will make you crazy.

Personally, I tend to put extra stock in Pew and Gallup polls. Gallup is doing a daily tracking poll, which as of this morning had Obama up by just 47-44. And both of these polls were of registered voters and didn’t employ a likely voter screen. You can see a comparison of many recent Obama-Romney polls here. If you study that table, you will note that Pew has generally found Obama to be further ahead than others polling at the same time. With all those caveats…

Pew had a large sample and therefore a smaller-than-average margin of error of 2.3 which makes Obama’s seven-point lead well above statistical significance. Compared with Pew’s previous poll shows Obama’s lead has grown to seven percentage points from four points in Mid-June, although the difference is not that Obama’s support has risen but that Romney’s has fallen. That is consistent with a common analysis point over recent news cycles that Romney has been hurt by the recent pounding over his business and financial practices.

Perhaps most alarming for Team Romney, Pew found that of 12 specific issues on which respondents were asked whether Obama or Romney would a better job, Obama won on 10 while Romney won only on reducing the deficit and improving the job situation. (Of course, those are two pretty big, salient issues. On the other hand, Romney doesn’t really have a coherent deficit reduction program and the public seems to always assume that Republicans will do better on that issue.)

Anyway, here’s the table of the 12 issues, lifted directly from the summary of the poll on Pew’s website:

As you might expect, the standing of the Supreme Court took a huge hit among Republicans in the aftermath of the big health care ruling. From the report:

“About half of Americans (51%) express a favorable opinion of the court, while 37% have an unfavorable view, up eight points since April and the highest percentage expressing an unfavorable opinion in a trend dating to 1985. The more negative view of the court is largely being driven by Republicans: Three months ago, Republicans viewed the Supreme Court favorably by a 56% to 25% margin. Today, they view the court unfavorably by a 51% to 38% margin.”

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Comments (7)

  1. Submitted by Neal Rovick on 07/12/2012 - 04:47 pm.

    From a purely political perspective

    This provides some insight into the current initiative of labeling Romney as “job outsourcer”. It takes one more issue away from Romney. Then he’s down to one issue that he is in the lead on.

    And then, a summer of riots throughout Europe protesting “austerity” has a good chance of making apparent what real “deficit reduction” is. Being associated strongly with “reducing the federal budget deficit” winds up being a less than desirable characteristic.

  2. Submitted by Ray Schoch on 07/12/2012 - 04:47 pm.

    Those darn activist judges…

    The really important poll is still months away, but this is interesting, and I concur that it doesn’t necessarily indicate that voters are growing more enthused about Obama, more that they’re growing less enthused about Romney. Actually, I’m mildly astounded that even 30 percent think Mr. Romney would somehow be better at dealing with the problems of the poor than Mr. Obama, but polls are often full of surprises, and this is certainly one of them.

    I must say I find the Republican flip-flop on the SCOTUS amusing. Suddenly, the “activist judge” is one of their own. Right wingers should relax. I expect Mr. Roberts to have quite a few more opinions to write over the next few years that will be more in line with right wing orthodoxy. Whether they’ll be majority opinions, however, I don’t know.

    • Submitted by Neal Rovick on 07/12/2012 - 05:04 pm.

      The 30% heard:….I’m not concerned about the very poor; we have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I’ll fix it……

      “If” is the point of judgement, and they trust him to make the “right” judgement.

  3. Submitted by Pete Barrett on 07/12/2012 - 05:39 pm.

    Repaeting the Past

    If the public thinks that Republicans are identified with deficit reduction they haven’t been paying attention.

  4. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 07/12/2012 - 09:04 pm.

    All you need to know about polling

    is that if the incumbant is polling at less than 50%, he will most likely lose. Virtually ALL of the undecideds, for example, 9% in the Gallup poll, will end up voting for the challenger.

  5. Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 07/19/2012 - 08:30 pm.

    We must have two suckers born every minute.

    I don’t think a republican has reduced a deficit since Eisenhower, and Romney is offering absolutely nothing new, it’s Bush all over again. Republicans also have the worse job creation record of the century.

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