Nonprofit, nonpartisan journalism. Supported by readers.


Poll update: Obama is ahead

I’ve been trying not to obsess day-to-day on polls, but I check the Gallup tracking poll every morning. For most of the past month or more, Pres. Obama and Mitt Romney have been separated by two points or less, which amounts to a statistical dead heat. This morning, Obama is up 49-44, which is still a small, technically insignificant lead but looks big because of where things have been. Rasmussen, a poll that many liberals accuse of a pro-Repub bias, also has Obama up by five points.

Obviously, this is the immediate aftermath of the two conventions. They call it a “bump” or a “bounce” in part because it tends to be temporary. But Romney seemed to get no appreciable bump from his convention and Obama did from his.

Of course, given our system, the most important polls are in the swing states. For at least two months, analysts have said that Obama’s position in Electoral College terms was stronger than h is position on the national popular vote and that appears to be the case more than ever. Below, I’ll take the ten states that Real Clear Politics lists as the toss-ups, and then take the RCP average of the last several polls in each of those states, in descending order of electoral votes:

Florida: (29 electoral votes): RCP average:  Obama +1.7 percentage points.

Ohio: (18): Obama +2.2.

Michigan (16): Obama +4.0

North Carolina (15): Romney +1.8.

Virginia (13): Obama +0.6.

Wisconsin (10): Obama +1.4.

Colorado: (9): Obama +3.4.

Iowa (6): Obama +0.2.

Nevada (6): Obama +3.3.

New Hampshire (4): Obama +3.5.

In addition, among the states that are not considered toss-ups, Obama leads in states with 221 electoral votes; Romney leads in states with 191.



Comments (2)

  1. Submitted by Frank Phelan on 09/10/2012 - 07:06 pm.

    Check The Clock

    It’s getting late in the game for Romney to shake things up, which he needs to do since he has not been able to move in his numbers in any appreciable way.

    If the campaign plays out without any shake ups (not guaranteed) Obama simply needs to run out the clock. The debates will be closely watched but they often don’t change things much.

    Voters may have realized that no one President will get the economy moving faster any time soon, negating Romney’s biggest advantage.

  2. Submitted by Neal Rovick on 09/11/2012 - 07:57 am.

    The election has moved on from the “Obama-scare” phase of the goat-rodeo primary.

    Mitt, the incredible pander bear, is in the spotlight now. It now about “Romney-don’t-care”. Or maybe he does. Maybe tomorrow he won’t. Or perhaps so…

    With a proposed set of policies that are as solid as a wet paper bag, it’s no wonder the bottom is falling out….

Leave a Reply