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Pew and Gallup say Obama's lead has vanished

It's no surprise, given the immediate reaction to the debate last week, but the two most prestigious poll operations, Gallup and Pew, both show that the race is back to a dead heat nationally. In fact, the Pew poll shows the candidates tied among registered voters but Romney leading 49-45 percent among likely voters.

It will take a while to assess the key swing states for an update Electoral College outlook.

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Comments (7)

I still have the question,

I still have the question, "Why would Obama be enthusiastic about another 4 years?" I think an whiff of this was broadcast during the debate.

Real "undecideds" were low information, low involvement people. Enthusiasm in a job applicant matters to those trying to make up their minds.

Pew Poll

The Pew poll has a five point lead amongst Republicans. If that lead holds up four weeks from now (and I'm very doubtful) then Romney wins big.

In fact

If Romney is only ahead by five percentage points among registered Republicans (I assume that's what you're referring to) then he's toast.


I meant that if five percent more Republicans turn out than Dems, then Obama loses big. Romney has had consistent leads among independents throughout the year. Obama needs pretty big turnout on the Dem side to win.

Highly unlikely

since there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.
It would mean that ten or fifteen percent more registered Republicans than registered Democrats would have to vote, and that's unlikely.
Romney is doing his best to increase the Democratic turnout.

Where is

Public Policy Polling when ya need 'em??

It looks like Mitt's hard

It looks like Mitt's hard tack to the center is paying dividends, at least temporarily. There is still a whole month to go until the election. That is a long time to keep the right flank happy and the independent voters reassured simultaneously.

Things are a long way from over.