Pew and Gallup say Obama’s lead has vanished

It’s no surprise, given the immediate reaction to the debate last week, but the two most prestigious poll operations, Gallup and Pew, both show that the race is back to a dead heat nationally. In fact, the Pew poll shows the candidates tied among registered voters but Romney leading 49-45 percent among likely voters.

It will take a while to assess the key swing states for an update Electoral College outlook.

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Comments (7)

  1. Submitted by Neal Rovick on 10/08/2012 - 03:42 pm.

    I still have the question, “Why would Obama be enthusiastic about another 4 years?” I think an whiff of this was broadcast during the debate.

    Real “undecideds” were low information, low involvement people. Enthusiasm in a job applicant matters to those trying to make up their minds.

  2. Submitted by Peder DeFor on 10/08/2012 - 04:05 pm.

    Pew Poll

    The Pew poll has a five point lead amongst Republicans. If that lead holds up four weeks from now (and I’m very doubtful) then Romney wins big.

    • Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/08/2012 - 06:40 pm.

      In fact

      If Romney is only ahead by five percentage points among registered Republicans (I assume that’s what you’re referring to) then he’s toast.

      • Submitted by Peder DeFor on 10/09/2012 - 08:17 am.


        I meant that if five percent more Republicans turn out than Dems, then Obama loses big. Romney has had consistent leads among independents throughout the year. Obama needs pretty big turnout on the Dem side to win.

        • Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/09/2012 - 11:17 am.

          Highly unlikely

          since there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.
          It would mean that ten or fifteen percent more registered Republicans than registered Democrats would have to vote, and that’s unlikely.
          Romney is doing his best to increase the Democratic turnout.

  3. Submitted by Thomas Swift on 10/09/2012 - 06:43 am.

    Where is

    Public Policy Polling when ya need ’em??

  4. Submitted by Nathan Roisen on 10/09/2012 - 10:59 am.

    It looks like Mitt’s hard tack to the center is paying dividends, at least temporarily. There is still a whole month to go until the election. That is a long time to keep the right flank happy and the independent voters reassured simultaneously.

    Things are a long way from over.

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