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Rothenberg rates Minnesota’s U.S. House delegation likely to remain status quo

Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report has updated his ratings of the 435 races for the 2014 election to to the U.S. House. Like everyone who maintains such ratings, the needle has moved toward Democrats having better chances for more pick-ups in 2014, but still needing to practically run the table in order to take control.

Heading into election year 2014, Democrats would need a net gain of 17 seats to take control. According to Rothenberg, just 24 seats currently held by Republicans are even slightly in play, and of those 24, just one is rated as leaning toward a Dem win next year and two more are rated as pure toss-ups. That means that the other 21 seats that Rothenberg believes are slightly in play are in the categories of toss-up/tilt Republican, lean Republican or Republican favored.

(And, just to nail down the math, if the Dems won 17 of those 24 races, they would also have to hold all of the current Dem-held seats, including 26 that he rates as somewhat in play.)

As for Minnesota, Rothenberg rates none of the eight seats as toss-ups or tilters. Three are mentioned. Of the eight incumbents, he rates the northeastern Minnesota 8th District seat currently held by Democrat Rick Nolan as “lean Democrat,” and he rates the 7th District seat held by Democrat Collin Peterson as “Democrat favored” and the 2nd District seat held by Republican John Kline as “Republican favored.”

Comments (8)

  1. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/21/2013 - 05:23 pm.


    Was this before or after the latest CNN poll?

    “Washington (CNN) — In a sign of the political hangover congressional Republicans are suffering in the wake of the government shutdown, three-quarters of Americans in a new national poll say that most GOP members of Congress don’t deserve to be re-elected.”

    • Submitted by Harris Goldstein on 10/22/2013 - 07:30 am.

      Yes, but…

      polls have consistently shown that displeasure of congress in general doesn’t always translate to displeasure with “your” congressman.

      Further, with the impact of gerrymandering, it’s not enough to have simply more votes. There were more votes for Democratic candidates to this congress than for Republican candidates.

      • Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/22/2013 - 09:37 am.

        Good points and true

        but, the poll results seem to indicate that it is the Republicans in Congress that are taking the brunt of the blame, not Congress in general. If I were the RNCC I’d be nervous, very nervous.

  2. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 10/22/2013 - 08:35 am.

    Once the fiasco

    of Obamacare is hung around the necks of the democrats, the republicans will gain seats next year in both the house and senate, as they will be seen as the party that reflects the views of the people.

    • Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/22/2013 - 12:48 pm.

      It says something

      that you view millions of people getting health care coverage for the first time as a fiasco.
      Once the initial growing pains are past (as they will be) and more people experience the advantages for themselves, it will be as hard to kill as social security and medicare.
      That’s why the reactionaries are trying to desperately to kill it now — they know that the more people know about it the more they’ll value it.

    • Submitted by Lora Jones on 10/22/2013 - 03:19 pm.

      And you know this just like you knew that

      Romney was going to win in a tsunami. Then, as now, I’d advise you not to bet too heavily on your preferred outcome materializing.

      • Submitted by Paul Brandon on 10/22/2013 - 07:29 pm.

        Didn’t you know?

        Romney DID win.
        He’s actually running the government from a secret White House in the Utah mountains. Obama is just a fraud perpetuated by the lamestream media.
        He doesn’t really exist.

  3. Submitted by Neal Rovick on 10/22/2013 - 01:57 pm.

    Let’s see, what is the strategy of the Republican party?

    Replay the non-negotiable budget negotiations in which they cannot come up with a budget in their own caucus. How could that not add to their reputation for competence?

    Replay the shut-down/default process over and over. How could that not underpin their reputation of running government like a business?

    Vote against Obamacare a few dozen more times. In essence, repeatedly vote to remove insurance coverage from hundreds of thousands by the 2014 election and millions by the 3016 elections. Remain firm on their platform of denying coverage for pre-existing conditions and the coverage of adult dependants. Definitely a more winning strategy for the hearts and minds of the voters, eh?

    Whip up a few more “scandals” and spend countless hours in testimony, essentially asking the Park Service why the parks were closed when the government was shut down. How else to convince all of the soundness of their reasoning?

    Perhaps fire up the immigration enforcement issue again–bigger fences, bigger INS, more deportations, right in time for the election. After all, your 30% only needs to be properly motivated to come out and vote and magically win the majority.

    Continue on with the winning strategy, winners!!

    No need to change strategy when it is all working so well.

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