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Rothenberg rates Minnesota’s U.S. House delegation likely to remain status quo

Rep. Rick Nolan is favored, but is rated the least safe of the incumbents.

Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report has updated his ratings of the 435 races for the 2014 election to to the U.S. House. Like everyone who maintains such ratings, the needle has moved toward Democrats having better chances for more pick-ups in 2014, but still needing to practically run the table in order to take control.

Heading into election year 2014, Democrats would need a net gain of 17 seats to take control. According to Rothenberg, just 24 seats currently held by Republicans are even slightly in play, and of those 24, just one is rated as leaning toward a Dem win next year and two more are rated as pure toss-ups. That means that the other 21 seats that Rothenberg believes are slightly in play are in the categories of toss-up/tilt Republican, lean Republican or Republican favored.

(And, just to nail down the math, if the Dems won 17 of those 24 races, they would also have to hold all of the current Dem-held seats, including 26 that he rates as somewhat in play.)

As for Minnesota, Rothenberg rates none of the eight seats as toss-ups or tilters. Three are mentioned. Of the eight incumbents, he rates the northeastern Minnesota 8th District seat currently held by Democrat Rick Nolan as “lean Democrat,” and he rates the 7th District seat held by Democrat Collin Peterson as “Democrat favored” and the 2nd District seat held by Republican John Kline as “Republican favored.”