Trump’s Muslim-banning idea going over well, and not just with his fanbase

Following up on a Tuesday post (which speculated that Donald Trump’s idea of barring Muslims would not hurt him with those attracted to his candidacy) here comes the first snap polling on the subject, via Philip Bump of the Washington Post’s The Fix blog.

The poll (which has issues that could allow you to disbelieve it) was taken online in a few California cities. It found majorities expressing support for Trump’s idea and expressing various other views unfriendly to Islam. Bump acknowledges the shortcomings of the poll, but also notes that it was taken in areas that President Obama carried in his 2012 reelection and that many Democrats in the survey were among those expressing support for Trump’s idea and a lot of them said they “strongly agreed” with Trump on the topic.

Writes Bump:

“In fact, more than a third of adults in both cities strongly agreed with the idea that Muslim should be barred from entering the country. In both places, more people strongly agreed with the idea than strongly disagreed. There was a partisan split, but even among Democrats, more than a quarter of those answering the poll strongly agreed with Trump’s idea.”

Late Wednesday addendum: I see that Bloomberg ran a poll with a national sample of “likely Republican primary voters.”

Bloomberg’s summary lede:

“Almost two-thirds of likely 2016 Republican primary voters favor Donald Trump’s call to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the U.S., while more than a third say it makes them more likely to vote for him.”

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Comments (19)

  1. Submitted by Ray Schoch on 12/09/2015 - 06:35 pm.

    Slight correction

    I’d have more faith in Mr. Bump’s poll if there was one minor correction: “In fact, more than a third of adults in both cities strongly agreed with the idea that Muslim should be barred from entering the country…” Unless Mr. Bump interviewed every single adult in whatever cities in California constitute the basis for his conclusion, there’s no reason to pay attention to his poll at all.

    What he *should* have said was: “In fact, more than a third of adults [who were polled] in both cities strongly agreed with the idea that Muslim should be barred from entering the country.” That alone would make both his statement and his poll more accurate. Since we know *how* they were polled, but not *how many* were polled, by whatever means, his conclusion seems likely to be meaningless.

  2. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 12/09/2015 - 06:44 pm.

    Brilliant primary strategy

    In retrospect, this was a brilliant strategy. The reaction from his republican rivals and other beta males in the GOP have put them in alliance with Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and the other liberals, leaving the conservative field to himself.

    Trump’s playing chess while the others are playing checkers. Except for Ted Cruz, who hasn’t fallen for it. Look for him (and maybe Rubio) to use the “good cop-bad cop” tactic when appealing to primary voters, whereas they look like the voice of moderation when compared to the Donald.


    • Submitted by Neal Rovick on 12/10/2015 - 07:54 am.

      Works great until he gets the nomination, or fails to get the nomination and pisses off his fans, or starts his 3rd party run.

      So many ways to go wrong for the dear old GOP.

      • Submitted by Dennis Tester on 12/10/2015 - 09:22 am.


        we get hit again by another Jihadist attack, and I think we will between now and election day, then he’ll look like the only one who knew what he was talking about and everyone else will look like fools or worse.

        • Submitted by Neal Rovick on 12/10/2015 - 10:31 am.

          You might recall that the San Bernadino attacks were conducted by US citizens. So is the next step to drive out all Muslims from the US? Internment camps? Special badges that they must wear? No guns for Muslims?

          And you might consider that the terror of a terrorist attack is muted because the current probability is that many more people will be shot in America between here and the election with mass shootings by any old crazy who believes that a non-Islamic god or devil or the voice in their head tells them to do it.

          I’ll ask you the question–what makes a shooting by a radical Islamic terrorist so much more worse than a shooting by the run-of-the-mill crazy? Do people grieve more, hurt more. Are there special Islamic bullets that send the dead to infidel hell?

          • Submitted by joe smith on 12/10/2015 - 07:40 pm.

            The shooters in California were husband & wife. Husband was an American, wife was here on a fiancé visa from the Mid East. She was supposedly vetted by our crackerjack immigration services and got in with a made up city of origin on her papers. Same crackerjack immigration system promising to vet Syrian refugees for 2 yrs. Wonder why folks are ready for anyone with a plan to keep them safe.

            • Submitted by Neal Rovick on 12/11/2015 - 05:42 pm.

              Yes and their next door neighbor, another US citizen, bought the guns years ago and planned a previous attack in 2012.

              Closing the border doesn’t stop crazy or stupid or evil–it happens everywhere.

              Perhaps you may be able to explain how much worse the San Bernadino shooting was than the Sandy Hook shooting and how it is important to stop one but not talk about the other.

            • Submitted by RB Holbrook on 12/13/2015 - 12:54 pm.

              California Shooters

              The husband was radicalized before he met his wife. A lot of good keeping her out would have done.

              • Submitted by Russ Hilbert on 12/16/2015 - 04:13 pm.


                Are two shooters better than one? I would think not. Also if you had a bowl of candy and 5 pieces were poison would you let your daughter eat a handful of pieces or throw the whole bowl out? Are all gun owners as bad as people who use guns to commit crimes/violence? Difficult questions.

    • Submitted by RB Holbrook on 12/10/2015 - 09:44 am.

      Yeah, Brilliant

      Jeb Bush says that Trump is just helping the Clinton candidacy. For once, he’s right: if Trump were to get the nomination, independents and the few remaining moderate Republicans would either stay home on election day, or vote Democratic.

      No-nothingism may play well with Republican primary voters, but it won’t sell with the rest of America. Sure, nominate the man. The question will not be how badly he loses the election, but how many congressional seats flip because of the damage he does to the Republican brand.

    • Submitted by Ken Bearman on 12/10/2015 - 01:31 pm.


      D. Tester wrote, “leaving the conservative field to himself [Trump]”. Two questions (at this point):

      (1) Are you claiming that Trump’s current and future supporters are conservatives?
      (2) Are you implying that Trump is conservative and whatever actual policies he’s espoused are conservative?

  3. Submitted by Neal Rovick on 12/09/2015 - 06:50 pm.

    (quote)”I’m doing good for


    “I’m doing good for the Muslims,” Trump told Don Lemon in an interview for “CNN Tonight.” “Many Muslim friends of mine are in agreement with me. They say, ‘Donald, you brought something up to the fore that is so brilliant and so fantastic.'”

    Among those reaching out to thank him, the Republican front-runner said, was “one of the most important people in Middle East” — Trump didn’t reveal the name — who called on Wednesday to say, “Donald, you’re doing a great service.”

    “I have many friends who are Muslims,” Trump told Lemon. “They’re phenomenal people. They are so happy at what I’m doing.”

    The feeling, he said, is mutual.

    “I love the Middle East,” Trump declared. “I love the people of the Middle East.

    (end quote)

  4. Submitted by Neal Rovick on 12/10/2015 - 09:10 am.

    Bloomberg pollFavor or

    Bloomberg poll

    Favor or oppose Trump’s proposal banning Muslims from entering the US

    All likely voters: favor 37%, oppose 50%, don’t know 13%

    Likely GOP primary voters: favor 65%, oppose 22%, don’t know 13%

    Likely Dem primary voters: favor 18%, oppose 75%, don’t know 7%

    Margin of error +/- 4%

    Not such a universal winner.

  5. Submitted by RB Holbrook on 12/10/2015 - 09:39 am.

    The Bump “Survey”

    Why was this reported in a national news outlet? The sample was of adults near San Bernardino, and the poll was taken shortly after the terrorist attack there. The results are not unexpected but shouldn’t be read as any bellwether of broad support for Der Donald’s exclusion plans.

  6. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 12/10/2015 - 01:24 pm.

    The latest New York Times/CBS News nationwide poll

    shows that two thirds of American voters are scared by the possibility that Trump could become president:

  7. Submitted by Connie Sullivan on 12/10/2015 - 03:12 pm.

    One of the other GOP presidential candidates referred to Mr. Trump as “unhinged.” That pretty much says it all. Did anyone see the reports of how he came unhinged in a campaign appearance several weeks ago, when he suddenly was behind Dr. Carson in the polls: Trump ranted on and on and on, wildly, eventually boring his supportive audience into total silence while he seemed oblivious to the effect he was having. He wasn’t psychologically “there” with them, and his campaign staff was unable or unwilling to do anything to get him to stop. They were mortified at his public meltdown. This guy, for president? Really?

    Trump needs to believe that he’s exceptional, a winner rather than a loser, a name-caller rather than someone who gets called names or labelled with epithets. He comes “unhinged” under pressure, or when even he sees that he is beginning to lose whatever competition he’s in. People have to notice things like that: he can’t be president, because he can’t stand the heat when it’s on HIM, rather than on some apprentice he’s hired.

    What an embarrassment for the U.S. he is, and for the GOP that ca’t rein him in.

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