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Trump’s poll ratings: As usual, no significant change

The president’s approval numbers are still “under water” (more disapprovers than approvers), but showing no durable or statistically significant movement since the early days of Trump‘s term.

I haven’t updated for a couple of months the trends in approval ratings of President Donald Trump. I won’t waste any more pixels than it takes to say, as usual: No significant change, up or down; still “under water” (more disapprovers than approvers), but showing no durable or statistically significant movement since the early days of Trump‘s term. Here’s the full track as compiled by fivethirtyeight.com.

But there’s another, possibly biased, take on the question that separates out the views according to the patriotism of the respondents.

As I have mentioned occasionally in the past, a friend of mine is on the email list for the “Trump-Pence/ Trump Make America Great Again Committee.” He doesn’t know how or why he got on it, but he does kindly pass along for my edification some from the steady stream of the communications he receives. The latest example illustrates how seriously the team at the TP/TMAGA Committee takes the science of public opinion sampling.

A recent email to committee members claims to be intended to give recipients a chance to take a poll on how well Trump is doing in his endeavor to Make America Great Again.

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I’m not an expert on the social science of opinion polling. I’m somewhat addicted to consuming poll numbers, which is only one reason I wish there were less of them. But I’m pretty sure that if you wanted to measure the president’s approval rating, and you did so by sending questionnaires to a committee of the incumbent’s strongest supporters, you might have a problem that the professionals call “biased sample.” 

In fact, as you’ll see below, the TP/TMAGA Committee argues that the only way to get an unbiased poll is to limit the sample to one’s supporters. Here’s that snippet, from the email my friend received from the MAGA Committee:

The days of accurate polling from the media are over and instead of listening to what they think, the President wants to know what YOU think. That’s why he asked us to launch an Official Weekly President Trump Tracking Poll so that we can show the President updated, accurate and UNBIASED results every week. …

The results of the last many months of such polling are displayed in the original email. While a fever chart of what are labeled “FAKE NEWS POLLS” show Trump’s approval ranging from the low to the high 30s, the same graphic displays a line labeled as representing the views of “American Patriots,” and showing the POTUS with approval ratings ranging from the low to the high 90s!!!. The email concludes:

EVERY WEEK we’re going to show the Democrats just how WRONG the Fake News polls are. We’ll have them reeling as they head into the 2020 Election.

Because this poll is only going to real American Patriots, your vote will have a HUGE impact on the results.

The President wants to know what you think, … and you don’t want to miss this chance to have your voice heard.

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Tell the President what you think by casting your vote IMMEDIATELY to have your submission counted in our official results.

Thank you,

signed/Official Trump Polling Team