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Trump’s approval rating: As always, bad but stable

The national approval rating of President Donald Trump continues unchanged. (Yawn.) Again. Still. The latest tiny movement: Fivethirtyeight.com’s average of many polls shows an insignificant rise in his approval, but well within any margin for error. The current numbers as of this afternoon: Approval: 41.6 percent; disapproval: 53.4 percent. As always, bad but stable.

Just to spice up my zillionth update, I’ll pass along some state-by-state updates of Trump’s approval ratings by Morning Consult. The results are very bad for Himself, but there’s double reason to view such results with caution.

Reason one: Morning Consult is an online pollster, which enables it to do this kind of state-by-state polling less expensively, but which causes traditionalists to view MC’s results with skepticism. So there’s that.

Reason two: It is not safe to take Trump’s approval ratings as a direct measure of his likelihood of carrying a state in 2020. One of his great “gifts” is his knack for disparaging/demonizing/ridiculing his opponents, with such tactics as assigning them nicknames suggesting that they are crazy, stupid or liars (unlike the self-described “stable genius.”) And, as I have recently written, he demonstrated an ability in 2016 to get the votes of people who don’t like him, but dislike his opponent even more.

But if you look past all those super-responsible cautionary notes, it’s quite impressive how many swing states, including many that he barely carried in 2016, are currently inhabited by more disapprovers than approvers of Himself.

Let’s start with the three famed “Blue Wall” states that Trump carried by less than 1 percent of the popular vote in 2016 and without which he would not have won his Electoral College victory. According to the latest Morning Consult polling, Trump’s current approval/disapproval numbers were:

In Wisconsin: approval 42%/ disapproval 55%, net minus 13 percentage points.

In Michigan: 42/54, net minus 12.

In Pennsylvania 45/52, net minus 7.

Morning Consult found four other states that Trump carried, fairly narrowly, in 2016, in which his approval rating is currently under water. They were:

  • Arizona:  Trump 2016 carried by 4.1 percentage  points. Current MC net approval rating: minus 6.
  • Iowa: Trump carried by 9.6 percentage points. Current MC net: minus 12.
  • Ohio: one of the two top swing states over recent cycles, which Trump carried by 8.6 points. MC net: minus 4.
  • Florida: other top swing state, which Trump carried by 1.3 percentage points. MC net: dead even.
  • North Carolina: Another state that Trump carried, by 3.8: MC net: minus 4.

And, if you’re wondering about our own dear Minnesota, where Trump came closer than anyone expected in 2016, losing by just 1.5 percent of the popular vote, Morning Consult finds his approval rating is currently under water by 16 percentage points. That was 16 points. 16.

But, of course, it’s a just a poll, and an online one at that.

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Comments (13)

  1. Submitted by Ray Schoch on 06/05/2019 - 04:18 pm.

    Yes, they’re only polls, and the election is many months into the future, but speaking as a former moderate Republican, I continue to be dismayed by the fact that Mr. Trump has ANY significant approval numbers in any state, north, south, east or west.

  2. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 06/05/2019 - 05:12 pm.

    I’m sure he’ll pull some rabbits out of his mouth at the last minute.
    What scares me the most is the possibility that he’ll declare a national emergency, instate martial law and cancel elections and declare Congress inactive for the duration.
    The second scariest thing is that he believes that he is popular and all evidence to the contrary is ‘fake’.

  3. Submitted by joe smith on 06/06/2019 - 06:14 am.

    Basically same approval rating as Obama in his first term after 2 1/2 years. That is with 90% of media coverage negative towards Trump when Obama had 80% positive coverage by MSM. Interesting.

    • Submitted by RB Holbrook on 06/06/2019 - 10:19 am.

      Did it ever occur to you that the “negative” coverage about Trump is entirely accurate? That there might, in all fairness, be very little positive to say about the man, or his presidency?

  4. Submitted by Theo Kozel on 06/06/2019 - 09:26 am.

    “Consistently bad”

    Pretty much sums him up.

    Check out how his popularity compares to Obama’s on the Five Thirty Eight website – very illuminating!

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    • Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 06/06/2019 - 11:06 am.

      Theo, that IS interesting, but compare Trump to Reagan… THAT’S even more interesting.

    • Submitted by Brian Simon on 06/06/2019 - 12:05 pm.

      I find the comparisons to Carter & Ford interesting. Carter being the only one with a lower approval at this point; and even he had quite a bit of time above water.

      The real question is whether there’s a path for Trump to boost his numbers. I don’t see one; am I missing something?

      • Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 06/06/2019 - 03:39 pm.

        My big worry is that Trump thinks a war will boost his popularity, it won’t, but he’s not a smart guy and he has a history of making bad decisions based on his own hubris and stupidity. Problem is, no war will serious affect him in any way.

        • Submitted by RB Holbrook on 06/06/2019 - 04:50 pm.

          I’m not so sure. If the Goniff-in-Chief has any redeeming feature, it’s his stated reluctance to get the US involved in another foreign war. Yes, he talks big and tough, but so far, he hasn’t done anything more than make noise. For all his provocative gestures towards Iran, he has stopped short of doing anything that could be expected to lead to war .

          I’m not sure where his reluctance comes from, but I’ll take it. The question is whether the hawks in his administration can be sufficiently restrained. That Bolton fellow, for one, is dangerous.

  5. Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 06/06/2019 - 10:59 am.

    I wouldn’t expect this change very much. It is possible that by this time next year 5% or 10% of Trump’s current supporters may start bailing on him as his policies start to collapse different sectors of the economy. Trump will always lie, he’ll tell farmers that they’re “winning”, but they can see how much money they have in their bank accounts. Trump IS already starting to lose various chambers of commerce. It looks to me that there’s a “core” of Trumpsters- those 25%-30% who still tend to believe most of what he tells them, that may never turn on him.

  6. Submitted by Jim Lit on 06/06/2019 - 01:31 pm.

    Although you may not believe this, but if he in fact actually puts his Mexico tariff on, this will drive the U.S. into a recession by the start of 2020. Certain indicators based on our previous recessions are similar such as an inverse in Treasury Bonds where as of today market a 2 month is paying more than a 2 yr bond.
    The big problem with Trump’s tariff is that is not based any economic reasons, but more on his ego and that may make it an illegal move by the executive branch & challenged by Congress.

    • Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 06/06/2019 - 03:45 pm.

      Preaching to the choir here. Between the tariff’s, deficits, and complete lack of any rational governance, we will certainly be in another recession by this time next year. And we’ll have a cabinet full of imbeciles who won’t have a clue and won’t listen to anyone who does have a clue.

  7. Submitted by Hiram Foster on 06/11/2019 - 06:14 am.

    The key for Trump is to split the opposition and to depress turnout. That’s why he is looking for a new Jill Stein and inserting citizenship questions in the census.

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