The national approval rating of President Donald Trump continues unchanged. (Yawn.) Again. Still. The latest tiny movement: Fivethirtyeight.com’s average of many polls shows an insignificant rise in his approval, but well within any margin for error. The current numbers as of this afternoon: Approval: 41.6 percent; disapproval: 53.4 percent. As always, bad but stable.
Just to spice up my zillionth update, I’ll pass along some state-by-state updates of Trump’s approval ratings by Morning Consult. The results are very bad for Himself, but there’s double reason to view such results with caution.
Reason one: Morning Consult is an online pollster, which enables it to do this kind of state-by-state polling less expensively, but which causes traditionalists to view MC’s results with skepticism. So there’s that.
Reason two: It is not safe to take Trump’s approval ratings as a direct measure of his likelihood of carrying a state in 2020. One of his great “gifts” is his knack for disparaging/demonizing/ridiculing his opponents, with such tactics as assigning them nicknames suggesting that they are crazy, stupid or liars (unlike the self-described “stable genius.”) And, as I have recently written, he demonstrated an ability in 2016 to get the votes of people who don’t like him, but dislike his opponent even more.
But if you look past all those super-responsible cautionary notes, it’s quite impressive how many swing states, including many that he barely carried in 2016, are currently inhabited by more disapprovers than approvers of Himself.
Let’s start with the three famed “Blue Wall” states that Trump carried by less than 1 percent of the popular vote in 2016 and without which he would not have won his Electoral College victory. According to the latest Morning Consult polling, Trump’s current approval/disapproval numbers were:
In Wisconsin: approval 42%/ disapproval 55%, net minus 13 percentage points.
In Michigan: 42/54, net minus 12.
In Pennsylvania 45/52, net minus 7.
Morning Consult found four other states that Trump carried, fairly narrowly, in 2016, in which his approval rating is currently under water. They were:
- Arizona: Trump 2016 carried by 4.1 percentage points. Current MC net approval rating: minus 6.
- Iowa: Trump carried by 9.6 percentage points. Current MC net: minus 12.
- Ohio: one of the two top swing states over recent cycles, which Trump carried by 8.6 points. MC net: minus 4.
- Florida: other top swing state, which Trump carried by 1.3 percentage points. MC net: dead even.
- North Carolina: Another state that Trump carried, by 3.8: MC net: minus 4.
And, if you’re wondering about our own dear Minnesota, where Trump came closer than anyone expected in 2016, losing by just 1.5 percent of the popular vote, Morning Consult finds his approval rating is currently under water by 16 percentage points. That was 16 points. 16.
But, of course, it’s a just a poll, and an online one at that.