I’ll be very brief. In my previous piece, urging you not to obsesses too much on polls this far ahead of Election Day (even though I can’t help myself from doing so), and encouraging you to focus (if you must, even though you shouldn’t) on swing state polls, I also mentioned that there were no recent poll results of President Donald Trump versus former Vice President Joe Biden in our own dear Minnesota, which I can’t quite stand to let myself view as a real swing state even though it was very close in 2016.
So, sure enough, there’s a new Minnesota Poll (viewable here) of Trump vs. Biden and it showed Biden leading Trump by 49-44 percent. 7 percent are undecided. The poll was conducted by a combine of the Star Tribune, MPR and KARE-11.
So there’s that. Not a big gap. Not a teensy gap.
I’ll mention one other polling-related matter, which is to update my occasional series on Trump’s national approval ratings, which I still check every day even though the numbers never move around much, which I at least used to find amazing, given the general volatility of this presidency. As usual, I rely on an average of many recent approval polls, as maintained by FiveThirtyEight.com.
The update is bad but not terrible for the current incumbent. It shows Trump (as always) under water (meaning he has more disapprovers than approvers). But this weekend was the first time in more than two months that the negative gap was in double digits, meaning the percentage of disapprovers was 10+ percentage points higher than approvers.
The actual numbers, as of Tuesday morning, are 43 percent approval, versus 53.3 percent disapproval, a gap of 10.3 percentage points.
The most amazing thing, to me at least, has always been how stable Trump’s approval rating is. But the trend over the past few days is fairly steep.