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NYT/Siena College poll of registered voters has Biden up by 14 percentage points

Too much poll watching this far ahead of an election is of questionable value. And I generally rely on an average of many polls when I do write about them. But I’ll deviate from both those practices to pass along a fresh poll out today because it was done by the New York Times, which has earned an above-average level of credibility in my estimation, and because it shows a very surprising result.

According to the just-published poll, by the Times “Upshot” operation in conjunction with Siena College, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the race for president by 14 percentage points.

Fourteen points. That’s a big number. If you want it hedge it, note that 50 percent for Biden to 36 percent for Trump with 14 percent in the “other” category, which includes those who said they would vote for another candidate, or did not know for whom they would vote, or would not vote. The sample also included registered voters, without a screen for “likely voters.”

So there’s that. But that’s a big honking lead, bigger than most polls show. But with all those caveats, it’s a huge Biden lead and it’s the New York Times.

A few details:

Biden leads by 22 points among women, but just three among men.

Trump leads by one point among whites, and by 19 among white without a college degree (the base of his base).

Trump gets support from 85 percent of self-identified Republicans, and Biden gets support from 85 percent of Democrats, but Biden leads Trump by 21 points – that’s a big number – among those who call themselves “independents.”

Of course, Biden crushes Trump among those who consider themselves “liberal,” and Trump crushes Biden among those who describe themselves as “conservatives” (although Biden’s margins among liberals is a fair bit larger than Trump’s among conservatives). But, more impressively, Biden crushes Trump 33 percentage points among those who describe themselves as moderates.

The summary paragraph in the Times write-up of the poll says:

Among a striking cross-section of voters, the distaste for Mr. Trump has deepened as his administration failed to stop a deadly disease that crippled the economy and then as he responded to a wave of racial-justice protests with angry bluster and militaristic threats. The dominant picture that emerges from the poll is of a country ready to reject a president whom a strong majority of voters regard as failing the greatest tests confronting his administration.

It’s just one poll. It doesn’t have a “likely voter” screen. It’s only June. It doesn’t focus on the swing states that will actually decide the election (although if the overall lead is really that big, it might change the swing-state list a bit).

Again, it’s only June. But you wouldn’t want to be Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale when he has to explain the situation to the boss.

The full Times piece on the poll is viewable here.

Comments (13)

  1. Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 06/24/2020 - 02:06 pm.

    This is encouraging, anyone running against Trump should be double digits ahead by now. The only thing that worries me is Biden’s incredibly low “very favorable” rating, Biden is actually one point lower than Trump there, and he’s still above 50%. That worries me because lack of enthusiasm combined with what will certainly be a messed up election system might hand Trump another narrow victory.

    Biden’s strategy is to stay in his barracks and let Trump self destruct. I’m worried that’s a dangerous strategy, Biden needs to get out there and energize his voters somehow. Granted, that’s a tall order, but he’s has to at least try.

    • Submitted by Paul Brandon on 06/24/2020 - 07:10 pm.

      Biden will not win by trying to beat Trump at his own game.
      He and his people are smart enough to know that.

      • Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 06/27/2020 - 02:49 pm.

        Dude we’re not talking about beating Trump at his own game, we’re taking about running a campaign… a candidate still has to have a campaign.

  2. Submitted by BK Anderson on 06/24/2020 - 02:12 pm.

    You’re going to give yourself a heart attack following polls to this degree.

    The concerning aspect here is that even after the endless incompetence and open corruption by an impeached lawbreaking president, Biden seemingly cannot get above 50% support.

    Ideally, anyone in that huge block of those supporting “other” (14%) would agree to throw their vote away or refuse to vote for Trump come Nov. But the reality is that, for almost every Repub and (phony) independent that voted for Trump in 2016, they will find themselves supposedly “forced” (in their own mind) to vote for him again, because “I had no choice but vote for Trump, whom I claim to strongly disagree with!” In point of fact, they disagree with Trump’s malfeasance about 20% of the time.

    For such folks (46% of the voters in 2016), government by Dem is simply unthinkable, unlike government by a corrupt scoundrel, which can be endured no matter what it does to the country. The critical mass of completely failed voters has been reached: “Because Comrade Pelosi and Socialist Lieutenant AOC are far worse! or um, whatever…”

  3. Submitted by cory johnson on 06/25/2020 - 07:12 am.

    A paper that has lost its credibility released a poorly executed poll designed to push a narrative. That’s not exactly a surprise.

    • Submitted by Pat Terry on 06/25/2020 - 08:58 am.

      Its actually its most of the most accurate pollsters.

      14 seems like a big margin – most polls have Biden up 8 to 10 points. But people may be finally figuring out that having a president who was a complete failure in the business world is also a complete failure as a president.

  4. Submitted by cory johnson on 06/25/2020 - 07:16 am.

    This insignificant poll will be pushed by every news outlet because it helps the leftist narrative. Much more significant, but much harder to find in the leftist media, is the poll by Robert Cahaly showing Michigan as a dead heat.

    • Submitted by Pat Terry on 06/25/2020 - 09:11 am.

      Actually, you have it backwards.

      Sienna is one of the most accurate polls there is. News outlets will be using it because it is very reliable.

      Cahaly (Trafalgar) is one of the worst polling outfits. Their numbers are way off even Fox News polling. Its not found much in the media, leftist or otherwise, because its not credible. Only people pushing a false narrative would rely on that poll, while ignoring many other far more reputable ones.

      • Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 06/27/2020 - 02:51 pm.

        Pat, you clearly don’t understand… these can’t be “good” pollsters because they’re finding the wrong results… obviously. Clearly these are nasty pollsters.

  5. Submitted by Brian Simon on 06/25/2020 - 11:03 am.

    In the summer of 1988 Dukakis was ahead by 17.

    Biden’s best move at this point is to keep his head down & let Trump keep digging. POTUS still thinks masks are for losers while coronavirus is rapidly spreading in FL, TX, AZ, the White House and campaign staff.

  6. Submitted by Joe Smith on 06/25/2020 - 02:00 pm.

    The night of the 2016 election the New York Times had Hillary as a 86% favorite to win election………

    • Submitted by Pat Terry on 06/25/2020 - 03:55 pm.

      Right. And Trump won by razor-thin margins in three states. But the final national polling – which showed Clinton leading by 2-3 points, was exactly right.

    • Submitted by Paul Udstrand on 06/27/2020 - 02:53 pm.

      Joe, yeah you go ahead and count on 2016 happening all over again. Anyone with any sense knows that Trump is the new normal eh?

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