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State results in NYT-Siena College poll: Biden leads in 6 key states

A brief follow-up to my previous post, in which I passed along the top line national results of a New York Times/Siena College poll of the recent landscape in the 2016 race for president. When I wrote Wednesday, I had access only to the top line national numbers, which showed Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 14 points, which I would have to call a big honking lead, with the usual caveats of it being early and to take into account the margin of error.

But, of course, it’s the swing states that determine the outcome of a presidential election, and today we have the states-by-state results, which are even more promising for Biden and alarming for Trump.

Here’s the Times’ follow-up piece with the state-by-state poll results, focusing on swing states.

But if you want the overview here (with the same cautious caveats), it shows Biden with very large leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, the three states that Trump carried by tiny margins in 2016 that enabled his Electoral College victory — plus Florida, which Trump carried by 1 percentage points in 2016, Arizona (Trump by four points in 2016) and North Carolina (also Trump by four in 2016).

According to the Times/Siena poll taken this month, Trump trails, and substantially, in all six. Thus:

Michigan: Biden leads by 11 percentage points.

Wisconsin: Biden also by 11.

Pennsylvania: Biden by 10.

Florida: Biden by six points.

Arizona: Biden by 7.

North Carolina: Biden by 9.

Comments (19)

  1. Submitted by BK Anderson on 06/25/2020 - 11:49 am.

    As the Russian juggernaut rolled across eastern Germany and the Allies crossed the Rhine, the Fuhrer decided that the German people had failed such a Once-in-a-Thousand-Year Leader like him, and ordered the destruction of all infrastructure across the Reich, since the Germans didn’t “deserve” to benefit from it, and to pave the way for those nations more fitted in the “struggle for survival”. Interior minister Speer acted as though he were carrying out all these directives, and then, in his last interview with Hitler in the doomed fuhrer-bunker, bravely informed the dictator he had refused to comply with the directives. Hitler feebly took the news, and Speer walked out.

    Trump, as a Hitlerian wannabe, cannot destroy the nation’s infrastructure as the polls get worse and worse and it looks more and more like lightning would need to strike to save him. So he will destroy the democratic fabric of the nation by declaring that the election was rigged and that he really “won” (the electoral college, of course).

  2. Submitted by Bob Barnes on 06/25/2020 - 01:47 pm.

    In late July 2016, basically every poll had Hillary winning by 5 to 10%. These polls are meaningless except to give the media something to write/talk about. Wait till the debates happen and Biden forgets where he’s at.

    • Submitted by Mike Chrun on 06/25/2020 - 04:24 pm.

      I’d guess Tim Apple might doubt that the great leader will demonstrate that much more mental acumen. You know; Tim Apple, the computer guy.

    • Submitted by Frank Phelan on 06/25/2020 - 05:10 pm.

      I’d guess the Don Trump campaign will make sure there are no slippery ramps at the debates.

      Not sure what Don Trump, who might have sent another more patriotic American to his death when he avoided the draft by claiming he had bone spurs, will do if he gets thirsty for a drink of water.

    • Submitted by Brian Simon on 06/25/2020 - 08:37 pm.

      Sure it’s early & things will change. It’s not 2016 though. Biden is not Hillary & DJT now has a record to run on. In 2016 he ran on “drain the swamp.” Now he is the swamp.

      Anyway, more interesting than the actual numbers are the trends. Trump is losing ground, and trying to revert to campaign rally, stoke-the-resentment mode in the midst of a pandemic. His tough-guy, no-mask act is looking more & more ridiculous as his campaign staff get sick & states critical to his reelection are showing dramatic increases in Covid cases.

    • Submitted by BK Anderson on 06/26/2020 - 09:06 am.

      Actually, I think you’re overstating Clinton’s lead, Bob, especially in these six states that (incredibly) all ended up going for the unqualified ignoramus Trump. Biden’s lead appears significantly larger than Clinton’s in this poll (and others). But you will always have the 2016 Surprise to fall back on.

      And sure, the incompetent Trump will argue that Biden doesn’t know where he’s at, and it’s far better to have a sadistic, lawbreaking, wannabe autocrat in the WH. It’s about the only argument the monstrous Trump has left at this point, given the timidity of the Dem primary voters.

      • Submitted by Frank Phelan on 06/26/2020 - 02:45 pm.

        For Pete’s sake, if they want to think it’s still 2016 let them.

        Let them run against Obama and Clinton all day long.

    • Submitted by Edward Blaise on 06/26/2020 - 09:35 am.

      Let’s not forget in 2016 we had 2 candidates with historical dislike-ability and one representing the status quo and the other radical change.

      Folks went for change.

      The change record is not looking so hot right now as evidenced by a 2:1 margin of folks who think we are on the wrong track as a nation rather than the right track.

      https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

      And on the likability front, let’s just following the wisdom of Republican Southern Gentleman Lindsey Graham:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLMYW8jFPHg

    • Submitted by Hugh Gitlin on 06/30/2020 - 06:29 pm.

      Clinton’s biggest lead according to the RCP average was 7.1% a week prior to Comey reopening the email investigation.

      She never had a double digit lead.

  3. Submitted by Brian Simon on 06/26/2020 - 12:07 pm.

    In other news, Trump has set a new record, for disapproval. Nobody has ever reached 49% Strong Disapproval. The big question, though, can he reach an even 50? I bet he can set a new high water mark that no subsequent president can even get close to!

    https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/06/26/npr-poll-trump-disapproval-hits-all-time-high-and-he-trails-biden-by-8

  4. Submitted by Ray Schoch on 06/26/2020 - 12:59 pm.

    A friend in Colorado sent me a link to a Bill Moyers interview that’s… um… concerning. The same friend says, mildly, that he doesn’t see much to differentiate this year from 2016 in terms of presidential politics. Lots of people (including many pundits outside the right wing universe) saying Trump will never be elected, etc.

    Meanwhile, the Trump organization and every Republican Party organization in the country – specifically including Minnesota – is doing everything it can to limit the vote, raise trainloads of money, along with every other technique they can think of, in order to see to it that Trump wins a 2nd term. I’m not sure we’ll survive a 2nd term in a form most people would recognize.

    Joe can be as genial as he wants, but I personally want his campaign organization to be just as ruthless as the Trump campaign. Trump, Gazelka, Daudt – none of them are going to be “polite” to Dem and DFL candidates, and I see no reason for Dems nationally, or the DFL in Minnesota, to disarm unilaterally. Serious damage has already been done to the country, and Jennifer Carnahan’s state GOP is working hard to bring Minnesota into line with a malevolent national Republican party that’s not much interested in “good government,” or even in “governing” at all. What it wants to do is RULE. By fiat if possible. When you’re in the minority, as Republicans are, democracy is a hindrance to be dismissed.

  5. Submitted by Harris Goldstein on 06/26/2020 - 06:35 pm.

    As far as I know, none of the polls take voter suppression into account. As things start looking worse and worse for Republicans, attempts to discourage voting by traditionally Democratic constituencies will grow.

  6. Submitted by Ron Quido on 06/29/2020 - 07:31 pm.

    Let’s see what happens to Biden’s poll numbers after he selects his VP candidate.

    • Submitted by Paul Brandon on 06/30/2020 - 02:48 pm.

      Won’t change much; he’s still running against ‘he who shall not be named’.
      And all of the discussed VP possibilities have their pluses and minuses; the end result will be a small media bounce when he does name a name, then settle back to where it was.

    • Submitted by RB Holbrook on 07/01/2020 - 06:25 pm.

      The VP pick has only a marginal effect, if that, on a presidential race. Did anyone really vote for Bush Senior because of Dan Quayle?

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