A brief follow-up to my previous post, in which I passed along the top line national results of a New York Times/Siena College poll of the recent landscape in the 2016 race for president. When I wrote Wednesday, I had access only to the top line national numbers, which showed Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 14 points, which I would have to call a big honking lead, with the usual caveats of it being early and to take into account the margin of error.
But, of course, it’s the swing states that determine the outcome of a presidential election, and today we have the states-by-state results, which are even more promising for Biden and alarming for Trump.
But if you want the overview here (with the same cautious caveats), it shows Biden with very large leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, the three states that Trump carried by tiny margins in 2016 that enabled his Electoral College victory — plus Florida, which Trump carried by 1 percentage points in 2016, Arizona (Trump by four points in 2016) and North Carolina (also Trump by four in 2016).
According to the Times/Siena poll taken this month, Trump trails, and substantially, in all six. Thus:
Michigan: Biden leads by 11 percentage points.
Wisconsin: Biden also by 11.
Pennsylvania: Biden by 10.
Florida: Biden by six points.
Arizona: Biden by 7.
North Carolina: Biden by 9.