Nonprofit, nonpartisan journalism. Supported by readers.

Donate
Topics

Trump approval falls to 40.6% in 538 group’s average of polls

This leads me to believe that most of Joe Biden’s gains in recent months have less to do with a rising confidence in Biden than in a declining confidence in Donald Trump.

President Donald Trump’s poll ratings continue to tank.

I recently updated some of his state-by-state polls numbers, versus Joe Biden, which continue to show Joe Biden ahead in a growing number of swing states, including quite a few that didn’t used to be considered swing states.

It seems likely that this has less to do with anything much that Biden is doing or saying, and more to do with a serious hemorrhage of confidence in Trump, reflected in a slow but impressively steady decline in his approval ratings — which, as of this morning, are his worst in more than a year and seemingly getting worse every day, slowly but steadily.

Relying, as I usually do, on the FiveThirtyEight.com average of many approval polls, the negative gap between those who say they approve of Trump’s performance as president and those who say they disapprove is the highest it’s been for a year and a half.

Article continues after advertisement

Bear in mind, this is not the same as whether respondents favor Trump or Biden. But it’s not too far off from that, and leads me to believe that most of Biden’s gains in recent months have less to do with a rising confidence in Biden than in a declining confidence in Trump.

As of this morning, based on the 538.com average, Trump’s disapproval number hit 56.0 percent, and the trend line, which you can easily see by clicking here, is slowly but steadily worse and has risen, slowly but steadily, almost every day for two months.

His approval number, as of this morning, was 40.6. That’s a gap of 15.4 percentage points on the downside.

I’m impressed (or should I say horrified) by the loyalty of Trump’s base. But there is a slow, fairly steady, decline. I’ll try not to write about this again unless or until his approval rate falls below 40, where it hasn’t been in a year and a half. But that could be any day now. 

Or never. It’s hard to win an election with 40 percent. But the loyalty of that base has been impressive, which requires me to remind you that Trump bragged back in 2016, about the loyalty of his base, that “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s like incredible.”

Yes, it’s like incredible. But shrinking.