The most recent presidential poll out of Minnesota shows Joe Biden and Donald Trump in a virtual tie, with Biden clinging to a scant, statistically insignificant lead of 46.9 to 46.5 percent. (Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgenson also got 3.7 percent in the poll.)
I don’t buy it, in part because I don’t want to, but also because I’ve seen recent polls that show Biden’s lead in Minnesota anywhere from 2 to 18 points. I don’t believe either of those numbers either. And Trump’s stopover in the Mankato the other day suggests he believes Minnesota is in play.
I pass along the recent poll result because I don’t want to be that guy who chooses to notice only such news as he finds agreeable. And, as you know, Trump came surprisingly close in Minnesota in 2016, although Minnesota hasn’t given its electoral votes to a Republican since Nixon in 1972, giving us the longest blue streak of any state.
If you want to look at the poll, by the Trafalgar Group, it’s viewable here.
The Nate Silver-led site FiveThirtyEight.com, which assigns ratings to pollsters, gives Trafalgar a C minus.