I’ll pass along a huge dump of fresh state-by-state polling results from Morning Consult (as adjusted by FiveThirtyEight.com, on which I regularly rely). 538 grades Morning Consult as B/C, perhaps because it’s an online pollster. Their 2016 final state-by-state polls were closer to the actual results than many other pollsters, although they didn’t predict that Trump would win.
Overall, if you were foolish enough to assume that Joe Biden will win every state in which Morning Consult currently shows him ahead, he would garner an electoral landslide. But, of course, his lead in several states is within the margin for error.
Starting with Minnesota because we live here, where polls in general seem to vary from a tiny Biden lead to a solid one, Morning Consult shows Biden up 50 to 43 percent.
In the three big swing states that Trump swept in 2016, which determined the final outcome, Morning Consult via 538 shows:
Michigan: Biden 52/ Trump 42.
Pennsylvania: Biden 49/ Trump 45.
Wisconsin: Biden 52/ Trump 43.
In other states considered reasonably “in play,” starting with states that Trump won in 2016, Morning Consult shows:
Ohio: Trump 50/ Biden 45.
Florida: Biden 49/ Trump 47.
North Carolina: Biden 49/ Trump 47.
Arizona (the one state that showed the biggest change from before the conventions, when Trump was leading by two points): Biden 52/ Trump 42. (That big a shift is hard to believe.)
Georgia: Biden 49/ Trump 46.
Texas: Trump/48/Biden 47.
And in states that Hillary Clinton won, which Trump has been hoping to flip (there’s only one other than Minnesota, which I listed above):
Colorado: Biden 51/ Trump 41.
On a national level, where Morning Consult had shown Hillary Clinton leading Trump in 2016 coming out of the convention season by 43-40 with 17 percent undecided, they now show Biden leading by 51-43, which is no change from what it found just before the two-week convention season.
And, of course, another reminder that any such polling should be viewed as an out-of-focus snapshot of a moment in time, which is why I should pay less attention to it, but I can’t help myself.