One more thing for Team Trump to worry about: Voters who voted for minor parties in 2016 were polled, and they prefer Biden over Trump by a 2-1 margin, according to an NBC News analysis.
It’s hard to anticipate the impact of this, even if it holds up, but it can’t be good for Trump.
Donald Trump managed to win the 2016 election while finishing second in the popular vote by 48.2 for Hillary Clinton to 46.1 for Trump. Our system, for reasons that we’ll perhaps discuss another day, makes it possible for the popular vote loser to win. And that system is still in effect. The last time anyone won the presidency while losing the popular vote by more than 2 percent was 1876, and that election was decided in favor of Republican Rutherford B. Hayes.
The ‘corrupt bargain’ of 1876
In exchange for the deal that has gone down in history as the “corrupt bargain,” one of two such acts of corruption in U.S. history, Republicans got to keep the White House but had to withdraw the federal troops that were protecting the rights of the newly freed African Americans. In what whites called “the Redemption” of the South, Jim Crow laws returned the freed slaves to second-class citizenship for almost another century of what was sometimes called “slavery by another name.” We might all want to study up on how that went down.
But back to the present and the recent past.
If you add up those 2016 Clinton-Trump percentages, you get only 94.3 percent of the vote, which means about 5.7 percent of votes went to minor party nominees. There will be minor party candidates on the ballot again this year. And every citizen has the right to vote for a ticket that has no chance of winning.
(An aside: Ranked-choice voting, which I support, would give those voters the opportunity to express their support for the their most preferred candidate, and then express their second-choice preference from one of the major party candidates and still not have what is sometimes called a “wasted” vote. But only Maine allows ranked-choice voting in presidential elections.)
The recent norm: Fewer choose minor candidates
In the three elections previous to 2016, the percentage of general election voters who voted for the two major party nominees combined was, 99.0 in 2004, 98.6 in 2008 and 98.3 in 2012. We’ll call that the norm, except when there’s an especially strong third-party or independent candidate, like Ross Perot a few cycles back. But we haven’t had one of those in the last several races, nor the current one.
The rest of this analysis is slightly conjectural on my part, but see if you agree. A lot of voters were unhappy with the two major-party nominees in 2016, and (the most conjectural piece of my thesis but I feel confident asserting it) did not think there was a serious chance of Donald Trump winning, didn’t “like” Hillary Clinton, and decided to protest by casting a “curse on both houses” vote for, in order:
The Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who got 3.3 percent, Green candidate Jill Stein (1.1) or an independent, anti-Trump Republican named Evan McMullin, (0.54). (The Constitution Party ticket also got 0.15.) That’s why the top two finishers declined from 99 to 94.
If you buy my conjecture, a lot of those combined voters hated Trump, disliked Clinton and decided to express their mood by voting for neither and then, like most of the country, were surprised — and not pleasantly — when Trump won. Since then, many of them have moved from surprised to regretful as Trump has underperformed their lowest expectations.
Trump’s in charge; election is about him
Heading into Election Day 2020, my belief is that – however much Trump tries to turn it into a referendum on “Sleepy Joe,” — the election is fundamentally about how many voters want four more years of Donald Trump.
Trump cannot appeal to the vaguely dissatisfied low-information voter by asking, as he did in 2016, “What the hell do you have to lose?” Trump cannot now represent a vaguely better imaginary future based on your current level of dissatisfaction with the way things are going in the country. He now owns the present, including the pandemic. He can’t encourage voters to think about their grievances and take a chance on something new. He’s not new. We know what he is. He’s the only president ever to have more disapprovers than approvers since such polling was invented.
Trump would like to offer them another view, that things are better than they know they are, or that however bad he is, Joe Biden will be worse because Hunter Biden, because socialism, because Democrats hate white people, because Trump alone can fix it, because, because, because …
We’ve seen his pitch, most recently through four nights of primetime convention coverage, although I doubt very many persuadable voters sat through it and were impressed. His efforts to change the subject from who he is, what he has done, and his handling of the COVID pandemic are wearing thin.
And, my one new contribution of today is (and I can’t prove it) that many of those voters who decided in 2016 there was no important difference between the major party nominees so they might as well register a protest vote for a minor party will be significantly fewer than the 5.7 percent who did so in 2016, and that’s why the story about the two-out-of-three 2016 third-party voters who prefer Biden over Trump in 2020 might be significant.
Or not. Anyway: Here’s another link to the poll indicating that two thirds of recent third party voters prefer Biden to Trump.
The area northeast of the metro has seen a noticable increase of Trump/Pence signs; American flags popping up on mailboxes; and signs stating “Stand for the Flag, Kneel for the Cross.” That does worry me since I was assuming the same thing is happening all over outstate Minnesota. On top of that, I’ve just read articles in “Politico” and “Five ThirtyEight” on the the possibility of Minnesota going for Trump. As someone who has no problem being accused of TDS, all of this is making me nervous.
So thanks for this, Eric. Another part to put into my house of hope. A bigger addition might be an obsrvation I’ve made during two recent trips into the suburbs and one short loop southwest of the metro. There were virtually no Trump/Pence signs to be seen marring the view. The contrast was absolutely striking between Scott County and Isanti/Chisago Counties. Regardless, it’s going to be a wild and ugly two months.
Sad. A second straight presidential election where the choice is “the lesser of two evils” (i.e. unworthy candidates).
That’s what the Republicans would like you to think.
On the other hand, Biden has a forty year record of public service which Trump lacks.
And Trump clearly does not dare run on his record as president.
There is a difference.
Driving from Mpls. to Northfield and Rochester over the past two weeks, I saw several Trump signs, but NO signs for Biden in the country. In the towns, there were many Biden signs, but none for Trump. I’m not too sure that it means too much, since, according to the lawn signs, Northfield is solidly in Angie Craig’s column. However, Northfield, with its two colleges and high level of educational attainment, is likely a blue island in a sea of red.
Thinking of colleges, it will be interesting to see where, and whether, college kids vote in 2020. If they are attending remotely, living at home with their folks, perhaps Mom or Dad will make sure they register and vote — or perhaps not.
Anecdotally, I know a suburban 18 yr old very much looking forward to voting this year, for Biden / against Trump. His extended family lives more in the ex-urbs, and are seemingly more Trumpian.
We’re back to the fundamental question: where can Trump go to grow his support / where does Biden find the votes Clinton didn’t get? I’m expecting the latter has more potential for growth than the former, but who knows?
In other news, apparently MN is an unusual state where the white voters without college degrees may be a growing segment of the voting population. I.e. Trump may very well have a chance of flipping this state.
Trump doesn’t need to grow support. He merely needs to maintain the support that won the election 4 years ago. All the polls I’ve read say that is the case.
That’s the Big Question.
Depending on who you believe, part of Trump’s path to victory in 2016 were a slew of left leaning voters who did not vote. As I understand it, both candidates underperformed relative to 2012, but Clinton underperformed relative to Obama worse than Trump underperformed vs Romney.
So looking forward to 2020, the data we have is that Trump’s approval ratings have been unusually flat. They’ve moved, but within a way smaller range than we’ve seen for prior Presidents. The implication is that he’s neither gained nor lost many supporters. Given that, it seems that it’s Biden who has more room to win or lose voters. Looking back at 2016 again, the question is can Biden get some of those voters who supported Obama, but not Clinton, to come back out for Biden. Joe needs to outperform HRC by a point or less in 3 states to win the election. Given Trump’s disapproval rates, it seems that Biden has a pretty good path forward.
Logically, I agree with you. Emotionally, I’m scared to death that you might be wrong.
If the Republicans are successful in suppressing voters, and Trump is successful in scaring suburban whites, then, it seems to me, all bets are off. If middle-aged white guys are happy enough with their stock portfolios, they may well hold their noses and vote for Trump, too.
“all the polls I’ve read…”
Um, what? Unless I’ve been misled, the reports on polling in the Blue Wall states (MI, PA, WI) Trump won in 2016 have Biden consistently with significantly larger leads than Clinton had. And Trump is in worse positions now in many states he won handily in 2016, such as AZ, NC and even GA!. Hell, he’s in trouble in FL and TX[!] according to polls I’ve seen.
I’m not saying he’s a goner, unfortunately (the failed constitution will see to that); but for you to imagine he’s obviously “maintaining his support” seems wishful thinking based on the actual polling to date. Plus, his three Blue State margin of victory was around 80,000 votes, combined. And you’re certain he’s holding his support on such a razor’s edge, eh?
Seems dubious, given that there have never been so many people telling pollsters they would “never consider” voting for Trump, and his historic disapproval numbers.
An encouraging sign for Trump, however, is that the minor-party voters who cast ballots in 2016 went heavily for the conservative Libertarian Gary Johnson-Republican Bill Weld ticket as well as the former Republican Evan McMullen running as an independent. They received a combined 3.82 percent of the total vote. The liberal alternative Jill Stein of the Green Party received only 1.07 percent. While minor-party voters may have told NBC they would cast their vote for Biden, what actually happened in 2016 was clearly the opposite. Another overlooked factor is that Hilary Clinton was able to outspend Donald Trump $639 million to $302 million four years ago, an advantage Biden will not come close to matching.
You do understand that those (right-leaning) Johnson voters previously rejected the unqualified fool and mentally unbalanced, amoral conman Trump in 2016? Yet you think there is now a greater chance they will vote for him in 2020 after watching the 4 year cavalcade of Trumpian lawbreaking and rising fascism? That they are in reality enthusiastic about the past 4 years of chaos and calamity, despite their statements to the contrary?
Seems unlikely. But I guess anything’s possible in today’s failed state…
In 2016, Trump really was not vetted by the media, that considered him to be an amusing joke, while Clinton was lambasted for her emails and her husband. Neither candidate was liked, but Trump represented something new. Except to his most loyal followers, his indifference, incompetence and insufferability make him a known commodity with no idea how to solve the nation’s problems and solutions that create new ones. We need infrastructure, not a trade war. We need to start increasing our life expectancy again, not shorten it through an out of control pandewmic. We need to stop rising global temperatures, not do things we know will increase them. There are solid performance based reasons for rejecting Trump. Are there reasons to reject Biden? Lots of fake issues invented by Trump and his intellectual lightweights. Cannot wait for the debates – so people can see Trump lying through his teeth and Biden behaving like a decent American patriot.
As for the debates, I’m with Speaker Pelosi on this:
You cannot debate a lying reality TV huckster and expect thoughtful results for undecided voters.
Given the propensity to lie and bully from one candidate and a propensity to produce humiliating “gaffs” from another, I would encourage the Dem candidate to produce a regular schedule format of his own– maybe like this:
Trump has said and done X
We will fix this and this to repair the damage
Trump has eliminated X
We will restore that this way…
Topics should include the faults and flaws in pandemic response
-in environmental damages
-in damage to our farmers
-in damage to our healthcare workers
-in damage to our agricultural workers (2% of hired workers feed us all)
-in damage to our schools
-in damage to our allies abroad
-in damage to our economy and trade
(there’s only 61 days left, plenty of material)
Don’t give long speeches without punch.
I think a regular and unrelenting, clear and concise factual statements both written and spoken by the candidates and surrogates is waaaaaay better than mounting a stage with this LIAR. Voters need reassurance.
Most of these 3rd Partiers in 2016 likely were sensible Repubs/independents who couldn’t see voting for the totally unqualified ignoramus and obvious conman Donald Trump. Now that he has shown his true anti-American fascist colors, I doubt that these voters will be any more likely to vote for him in 2020. But it’s a hard sell to get a Repub leaner to vote for a Dem for president. So I doubt Biden gains much here. But Trump certainly isn’t going to be gaining much here, either. His 3rd party stratagem in 2020 is the ridiculous fool and Trumpite stooge, Kanye West. We’ll see how that goes for him.
The question is going to come down to whether Trump holds his 2016 support level after demonstrating his criminality, lawbreaking and constitution-violating behavior. After failing to protect the country from Covid-19, failing to suppress it and watching 250,000+ Americans die. After destroying the economy in 10 different ways. After having mismanaged the Treasury to unprecedented deficits. After having so divided the country against itself. I’ll stop here (and of course Repub suppression of voting by Dem demographics is a big part of the picture, too.)
But the bigger question is just how debased have the American people become? (Minnesotans included, unfortunately). As never before, we will be testing Franklin’s Dictum: “A republic, if you can keep it”. There is certainly a betting chance that we won’t, and will go the way of Weimar….
Thanks for putting in a good word for Ranked Choice Voting! I think it will truly transform politics. Even wrote a song about it. There’s a rough demo at https://soundcloud.com/tom-johnson-522198218/the-ranked-choice-voting-song. Here are the lyrics:
Your vote’s an awful thing to waste, my friend
But it ain’t right that your conscience has to bend
There’s a better way to weigh the people’s will
One day we’ll see the promise of democracy fulfilled
We’re gonna rank our choices
‘Cause there’s more than two
Electoral mandates should be strong and true
It’s like havin’ a runoff on the same day
With Ranked Choice Voting the majority has their say
You can’t tell me a vote for her’s a vote for him
I wanna back my favorite even when the odds look slim
All this talk of spoilers keeps competition down
To choose a prince, you shouldn’t have to risk a clown
We’re gonna rank our choices
‘Cause there’s more than two
Electoral mandates will be strong and true
It’s like havin’ a runoff on the same day
With Ranked Choice Voting the majority has their say
With Ranked Choice Voting the majority . . . wins the day
On ranked choice voting: I was a long-time supporter, but I have been educated by experience. The 2017 Mpls mayor and council elections were an unfocused mess, and the resulting group of officeholders can be described with the same words. So here is the tweak: I support an open, ranked choice primary; but the general election should be a focused contest between two candidates.
And on those zany exurban highway billboards: Think of a drive out to the country to see them as like a drive around the city to see the Halloween displays or Christmas lights. The target calendar day will come, and then the weird and bizarre will give way to more useful pursuits.
Why would you expect its use in primaries to produce less of an unfocused mess?
Fascists are game changers. For decades the function of third party votes one way or another was to peel off votes for the two party duopoly to the point where one of the Parties would take note and try to lure those votes back with policy changes. Of course another motive behind third party votes was a basic morality, the refusal to vote for candidates you didn’t believe in or believed were actually bad for the nation.
When Fascists walk into the room the dynamic changes. The third party effect of drawing votes away from Biden in an election where Trump would be the next president is a moral and political catastrophe we cannot afford to promote. I don’t begrudge anyone who votes their conscience, and I’m not voting for Biden with any enthusiasm, although Harris on the ticket makes it easier, but drawing votes from Biden is almost suicidal in this scenario.