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Civiqs poll shows Biden leading in Minnesota by 53-43 percent

The fact that President Trump is canceling ad spots that he had reserved in Minnesota is pretty good evidence that his team has lost its confidence that he can flip the state red this year.

Former Vice President Joe Biden delivering remarks at a voter mobilization event at Riverside High School in Durham, North Carolina, last Sunday.
Former Vice President Joe Biden delivering remarks at a voter mobilization event at Riverside High School in Durham, North Carolina, last Sunday.
REUTERS/Tom Brenner

I look at way too many polls, even though I like to quote the line that fresh poll numbers are like “crack cocaine for political junkies.”

In 12 days this will all be over (although the argument about who won the election may go on for quite a bit longer, but at least then we’ll be arguing over actual ballots cast by actual citizens).

So, with the usual warning about margins of error, etc., and …

  • knowing that we have spent most of the past four years trying to figure out how Minnesota came so close to giving its electoral votes to Donald Trump in 2016 and …
  • despite the offsetting fact that Trump has canceled many of his advertising buys from Minnesota, very likely a signal that Team Trump no longer likes its chances of flipping our state, which has gone blue in every presidential election since 1972 (the longest blue streak of any state) and …
  • despite the occasional appearance of an outlier poll showing Joe Biden with only a “margin of error” lead in our fair state …

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I’m passing along the latest Minnesota poll I’ve seen (if you’re reading this on Thursday it’s just two days out of the field and was just published Wednesday. It shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in Minnesota by a more-than-margin-of-error 10 percentage points, specifically by 53-43 percent (the poll’s margin for error is +/- 3.6 points).

And, yes, the last Star Tribune Minnesota Poll of the 2016 election did show Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 47-39, and she ended up beating him by just 1.5 percent of the vote, but she did beat him in our fair state, and Biden’s lead in this most recent poll is even larger than hers was. And, yes, to repeat one point from above, the fact that Trump is canceling ad spots that he had reserved in Minnesota is pretty good evidence that his team has lost its confidence that Trump can flip Minnesota red in 2020.

The poll referenced above was taken by Civiqs, which polls online.

FiveThirtyEight.com, which rates pollsters, scores Civiqs as B/C, a mediocre rating. So there’s that. But if you believe in the wisdom of considering the findings of multiple polls, the political number crunchers at 538, as of Thursday morning, rated Minnesota as most likely to be carried by Biden by a margin of 50.1 to 42.1, which is quite close to what Civiqs found.

To read the Civiqs writeup of its poll in Minnesota, go here.