When the Minnesota Twins hold their home opener April 8, the team will have 10,000 people in the stands at Target Field in Minneapolis, making it the largest, or surely one of the largest, state-sanctioned gatherings since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Other large outdoor venues, such as Minnesota United’s Allianz Field, will also be able to have big crowds starting April 1. Gov. Tim Walz has cited the state’s low rate of infection and the steadily increasing number of vaccinations as the reasons for allowing such events. But another factor is also key: They’re outdoors.
Which raises the question: As the weather gets warmer and more Minnesotans head outdoors, what does the science say about how safe it is to be outside?
Why outdoors is better
Early on in the pandemic, outdoor events were treated with extreme caution by health officials around the country.
Professional and collegiate sports games were quickly canceled, returning later without fans. Health officials in Italy worried that a soccer match sparked the country’s spike in COVID-19 cases and a March 2020 game in Seattle drew criticism as a dangerous large gathering.
In Minnesota, Walz kept parks open but initially closed campgrounds and golf courses. Attorney General Keith Ellison sued operators of a rodeo in Itasca County that allowed more than 250 people (many of whom eschewed masks and social distancing) to attend an event in July.
[image_credit]REUTERS/Lucas Jackson[/image_credit][image_caption]Gov. Tim Walz[/image_caption]
Dr. Jill Foster, an infectious disease doctor and professor working for the University of Minnesota Medical School and M Health Fairview, said light aerosol droplets from a contagious person can float around indoors and infect people. But outdoors, they’re blown away, diluted and broken up by the rush of ever-moving air. “The air is constantly being exchanged with new air, there’s air currents all over the place,” Foster said.
Foster compared the virus particles to perfume. When someone sprays it indoors, people can smell it for a while — even if they leave the room. Outdoors, that smell gets dispersed far more quickly.
Potential examples of outdoor spread
Even if rare, transmission in outdoor settings or superpreader events is not impossible, health officials say.
When MinnPost asked the Minnesota Department of Health if it had evidence of disease spread outdoors, agency officials said they found 31 COVID-19 cases tied to a July 4 concert at Stoney Point Recreation and Campground in Lincoln County, and confirmed 10 cases were from the same source.
Agency spokesman John Schadl said there were 16 cases tied to a campaign rally for then-President Donald Trump in Bemidji last year, and four cases among protesters. Rally-goers were in a packed crowd for the Trump event.
While those events were held outside, Schadl said the state can’t be absolutely certain the actual transmission happened outside, rather than in indoor settings such as transit to the gathering.
State data show five outbreaks connected to concerts and three to festivals and fairs, activities that may have been outside. MDH says 167 people were potentially exposed to COVID-19 at block parties during the pandemic. When contact tracers investigate COVID-19 cases, they ask people about places they were potentially exposed 14 days before symptoms began.
[image_credit]MinnPost photo by Peter Callaghan[/image_credit][image_caption]Director Kris Ehresmann[/image_caption]
In Cook County, health officials traced a surge in COVID-19 cases back to a snowmobiling event on the Gunflint Trail held in late February. Cook County has reported 18 new COVID-19 cases in the last two weeks, and WTIP Radio reported Monday that health officials say there is more COVID-19 in the region than at any other point during the pandemic.
While the snowmobiling was, of course, outdoors, Grace Grinager, the public health supervisor for Cook County, said the event included stops “at a number of bars and restaurants.” (Though she wasn’t sure whether each location offered indoor or outdoor seating.)
“While it is impossible to know for certain where transmission occurred, we do know from a public health perspective that transmission from indoor gatherings at bars, restaurants, or in personal homes is more likely than transmission in an outdoor setting because of airflow,” Grinager said in an email.
When it comes to safety, not all outdoor gatherings are equal
Foster said not outdoor activities are the same. Outdoor activities where people are moving are generally safer. For instance, when people are going for a walk, “those aerosols don’t have a chance,” she said.
But things get a little riskier when people are stationary, especially for long periods of time. The more people involved, and the closer together people are, the more potential there is for spread.
At a baseball game, for instance, Foster said rows of people seated around each other for several hours who periodically scream and cheer isn’t great — even if it’s better than holding a party in your living room. (The Twins are generally trying to space people out throughout the stadium and closing off seats between groups.)
Foster also said people may travel to big events from other parts of the country with higher COVID-19 rates, also increasing risk.
Plus, in many cases, there are indoor gatherings tied to outdoor events. If you’re safe at your seat during a sports game, you still might spend time near others inside a bathroom or in transit on the way to the game.
Still, state data show hundreds of outbreaks since the pandemic began that were likely tied to indoor gatherings, such as restaurants, weddings, gyms and sports games, compared to the relatively small number of outdoor-related outbreaks MDH identified. Schadl said the state doesn’t get data to distinguish if an outbreak included outdoor seating such as a restaurant patio, though gatherings at those places in January and February were likely to be indoors.
“Being outdoors is absolutely better than being indoors when it comes to potential for transmission with COVID,” Ehresmann said.
So in other words, it’s simply not known how much “less” risky outdoors is, and I’m surprised Orenstein would write this entire article without mentioning the presence and emergence of the new variants, which are far more contagious. The point is, in or out, gatherings are riskier than not gathering, you pay your money your take your chances. Just because Walz is “allowing” these gatherings doesn’t mean they’re a good idea or “safe”. In any gathering inside or out the recommendation is double mask (or KN95 mask), and keep your distance. The longer the “gathering lasts”, the more likely your exposure. IMHO, wait a couple months until we’re within striking distance of herd immunity.
It’s always important to assess behavioral components when you try to factor your own risk. One troubling characteristic of public gatherings is that you have no idea and no control over total strangers and their behavior. You have no idea whether or not anyone is “gathering” despite positive COVID test results, or feeling ill. Clearly someone with active infection is more likely to transmit, even outdoors. You also have no control over anyone else’s COVID compliance. For all you know you end up at a sporting event 2-10 feet away from someone who rips their mask off and screams every time they get excited.
The Studies that have been done on outdoor events don’t and can’t calculate comparative risk in general with specific risks that arise given riskier behavior. You can find that it’s generally less risky to attend an outdoor event, but specifically extremely dangerous if you end up standing next to an infected person for two hours.
Paul, simple solution, don’t go to the event. Going anywhere in today’s world includes risk. Driving to the arena, walking to the event, getting carjacked, you take risks. If you are not comfortable being by strangers don’t go. For the millions of Minnesotans that are not afraid, let them attend. It used to be called free will, not sure what is called now.
Free Will? Now that is a scary concept!
The problem that the original lockdown was trying to solve was to keep the hospitals from being overloaded as well as protect those workers who don’t really have a choice about being there. That’s where your free will and the right of the people working the event come into conflict. It’s really no different than driving drunk, except Covid killed way, way more people in a year than drunk driving. You don’t get the right to drive drunk because “freedom”. If Covid only affected the people too selfish to wear a mask or stay at home when sick, it wouldn’t matter but unfortunately that’s not how it works.
Exactly. But the posters on this page, and our Gov seem all to know what’s better for me and my family. And want to make sure they are in my face telling me that.
Those millions of Minnesotans that are not afraid are probably the ones that don’t want to wear face masks, don’t social distance or are afraid of the Covid-19 vaccination.
I am shocked and saddened to learn of so many health care workers that I have spoke with that have refused to get vaccinated when it was available to them.
I feel it is the responsibility of every American citizen to help fight the COVID-19 virus and get vaccinated in an attempt at ending the war on this pandemic and getting back to normal. Not taking the vaccination when it is available to you is unacceptable and irresponsible.
I understand that some have concerns with side effects after receiving the vaccine. While some experience side effects they normally go away in a few days and many people don’t experience any side effects at all after the shots. Many of our veterans that actively took part in various wars and conflicts, especially those that saw combat, had serious concerns about dying, being wounded or becoming disabled. However, so many stood up bravely and faced our enemy even with those concerns. Today our enemy is a virus and I ask all Americans to standup bravely and do your part in fighting this virus by getting vaccinated.
A lot of COVID rage out there – not generated by the virus, but by thinking and getting very frustrated about the disease. A half million Americans have already died from this. It is really a lot bigger than you or me.
The message here is simple. Being outdoors in quiet surroundings with air and people movement without large crowds is much safer than being indoors for long periods, packed together, with people not wearing masks or staying home when they are sick. It is pretty clear what we can do to improve our chances of not catching this or passing it on.
This is about risk reduction. There is no such thing as risk avoidance. As soon as you are vaccinated and have passed the waiting period, your risks are much lower. We are continuing to learn more about this pandemic every day, so if you are working off of old ideas, you are more likely to have a lot of it wrong. Be thankful that scientists and healthcare providers are doing their best to take care of us. Please listen to their wisdom and direction.