Given factors that have decided previous elections, a Democrat should win in 2016

Even at this early stage, both major party presidential campaign lineups are a shambles. For the Republicans, the lineup looks like Donald Trump and the Fifteen Dwarfs. For the Democrats, front-runner Hillary Clinton is mired in an email swamp, with no strong second in the wings.

If we consider the factors that have decided past presidential elections, it appears that any rational Democrat candidate should win.

Our economy is one of the strongest in the world. Rising oil and gas production is creating thousands of new well-paying jobs. The availability of low-cost energy supplies is also boosting manufacturing employment. Major foreign companies, like Germany’s chemical giant BASF, are locating new plants in the U.S., helping to create nearly a quarter million new jobs per month, the best job growth since the Clinton administration.

The much maligned Affordable Care Act is adding more than a million uninsured every month to the roll of those with health insurance. It is not the job killer that Republicans have claimed.
Republicans and Democrats have opposing positions on the need to take action on carbon dioxide emissions to prevent global warming; polls show that most voters are with the Democrats on the need to limit CO2 emissions.

The multinational deal on the Iran nuclear program is drawing fire from many quarters — but no one has produced a better alternative short of war, and the agreement is likely to prevail.

There are still many problems confronting the nation, but the Obama administration has taken mostly effective action without producing any of the disasters its actionless critics have predicted. This has set the election stage for another Democrat in the White House.

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