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Mr. Dilettante: Minnesota election predictions

It’s a big night tonight in Minnesota politics. Who will come out on top? What do you think?

So, what are your predictions for how it’s going to come out? Here are my guesses:

Minnesota Governor: It’s going to go late into the night. If Chip Cravaack’s campaign is successful, and I think it will be, he’ll drag Tom Emmer across the finish line. Barely. Emmer wins in a real close one, by 1.5. For all the good will the Dayton name has in this state, enough people are worried about him that he won’t get there.

Minnesota Attorney General: Swanson wins, but not by more than 2-3. Barden hasn’t received much attention, but he’s done a very good job of laying out the issues.

Minnesota Sec. of State: Severson by 2. Although it’s been quiet, there are a lot of people who’ve been waiting to vote against Mark Ritchie. They’ll be heard from tomorrow.

Minnesota Auditor: Anderson by 5. Rebecca Otto was a fluke winner in a bad Republican year.

Congressional Races: As follows:

MN1: Walz by 2. Demmer ran a good campaign, but it won’t quite happen.
MN2: Kline by 30. No contest.
MN3: Paulsen by 12. No contest.
MN4: McCollum by 11. In a sane district, Teresa Collett would win by 30. And without her protector Nancy Pelosi, McCollum is going to have a very difficult time in the next two years. Don’t be surprised if she gets a credible primary challenger next time.
MN5: Ellison by 15. Ditto for Joel Demos. It amazes me that with all the ambitious DFL politicians who operate out of the Twin Cities, the two urban districts have such ridiculous incumbents.
MN6: Bachmann by 11. The best part is that Tarryl Clark spent millions for nothing.
MN7: Peterson by 8. Watch him closely — Peterson might cross the aisle after getting a scare from Lee Byberg, who has run a pretty good campaign.
MN8: Cravaack by 3. And Tom Emmer is going to owe him big time.

Wisconsin Governor: Walker wins by 5. He’s not the strongest candidate, but he’s strong enough to beat Barrett.

Wisconsin Senate: Ron Johnson wins by 6. It’s a tough year for Democrats in Wisconsin, but Ron Johnson would be a hell of a candidate in any year. Very impressive.

WI3: Kapanke by 1. Just a hunch on this one.
WI7: Duffy by 8. Strong campaign by a guy with a future.
WI8: Ribble by 7. And this one will be especially sweet. Steve Kagen is odious.

Overall number of House seats gained for the Republicans: 66
Overall number of Senate seats gained for the Republicans: 9. And again, watch for potential aisle-crossers — the R’s will approach Lieberman, but the ones to watch will be Jon Tester, Jim Webb and maybe even Kent Conrad. All see the writing on the wall.

Let’s hear your predictions in the comments section…

This post was written by Mark Huering and originally published on Mr. Dilettante’s Neighborhood.