Competitive seats in the Minnesota House: hPVI, 2013 edition

This post is part of a series of posts concerning hPVI. The first phase of this series involves the introduction of brand spanking new 2013 hPVIs. That phase, the first, is the one in which this post belongs.

This part of the first phase, the third part, concerns the actual hPVIs for the Minnesota House. The first part of the first phase dealt with some updates to the hPVI formula itself. The second part dealt with the hPVI’s for the Minnesota Senate. If you have no idea what hPVI is, you should probably start here.

In the graph below each bar represents a House district, the height of the bar representing the hPVI of the district, districts on the left side of the graph are Republican leaning and districts on the right side are Democratic leaning. The color of the bar represents the party that currently occupies the seat.

mnhouse hpvi graph

The first vertical bar acts as the demarcation between Republican and Democratic leaning seats. The location of the 67th and 68th seats, the number of seats needed for control of the House, is marked by the second vertical bar.

This graph looks very similar to the one for the Senate. That’s not really surprising, since house districts are nested within Senate districts you would expect them to be similar in the aggregate.

Like the Senate version, Democrats are heavily concentrated in a handful of districts while Republicans are spread out over a much larger number of districts. This is evidenced by the fact that the halfway point, the 67th and 68th seats, are in Republican leaning territory.

Unlike in the Senate, where the Republicans have Jeremy Miller occupying a slightly DFL leaning seat, in the House the GOP has no such thing. They have a couple people occupying Even districts but nothing with a DFL lean. Meanwhile, Democrats hold a few moderately Republican districts and a bunch of marginal Republican districts.

The graph below breaks down the districts into three buckets, roughly; GOP friendly, competitive and DFL friendly.

mnhouse hpvi seat distro

The Senate version of this graph had a larger amount of competitive districts, but the distributions are very similar.

The graph below is a further breakdown of that middle column, the theoretically competitive districts.

mnhouse hpvi seat distro

The differences in the House are not quite as stark as on the Senate side where the GOP had more than twice the number of these slightly advantageous districts. But while the advantage isn’t nearly as large, Republicans still have a bit of an advantage in these districts.

Here is the entire House hPVI list:

HDRepresentativePartyhPVI
1ADan FabianGOPR+3
1BDebra KielGOPR+1
2ARoger EricksonDFLR+1
2BSteve GreenGOPR+6
3ADavid DillDFLD+10
3BMary MurphyDFLD+13
4ABen LienDFLD+5
4BPaul MarquartDFLR+2
5AJohn PersellDFLD+3
5BTom AnzelcDFLD+2
6ACarly MelinDFLD+18
6BJason MetsaDFLD+16
7AThomas HuntleyDFLD+19
7BErik SimonsonDFLD+22
8ABud NornesGOPR+10
8BMary FransonGOPR+9
9AMark AndersonGOPR+11
9BRon KreshaGOPR+11
10AJohn WardDFLR+6
10BJoe RadinovichDFLR+4
11AMike SundinDFLD+14
11BTim FaustDFLR+3
12AJay McNamarDFLR+2
12BPaul AndersonGOPR+13
13AJeff HoweGOPR+9
13BTim O’DriscollGOPR+9
14ATama TheisGOPR+3
14BZachary DorholtDFLD+3
15ASondra EricksonGOPR+8
15BJim NewbergerGOPR+15
16AChris SwedzinskiGOPR+3
16BPaul TorkelsonGOPR+11
17AAndrew FalkDFLR+1
17BMary SawatzkyDFLR+3
18ADean UrdahlGOPR+10
18BGlenn GruenhagenGOPR+14
19AClark JohnsonDFLD+3
19BKathy BrynaertDFLD+6
20AKelby WoodardGOPR+11
20BDavid BlyDFLD+4
21ATim KellyGOPEVEN
21BSteve DrazkowskiGOPR+7
22AJoe SchomackerGOPR+8
22BRod HamiltonGOPR+5
23ABob GuntherGOPR+11
23BTony CornishGOPR+3
24AJohn PetersburgGOPR+5
24BPatti FritzDFLR+3
25ADuane QuamGOPR+7
25BKim NortonDFLD+1
26ATina LieblingDFLD+5
26BMike BensonGOPR+7
27AShannon SavickDFLD+6
27BJeanne PoppeDFLD+10
28AGene PelowskiDFLD+5
28BGreg DavidsGOPEVEN
29AJoe McDonaldGOPR+14
29BMarion O’NeillGOPR+11
30ANick ZerwasGOPR+12
30BDavid FitzsimmonsGOPR+16
31AKurt DaudtGOPR+15
31BTom HackbarthGOPR+13
32ABrian JohnsonGOPR+8
32BBob BarrettGOPR+8
33AJerry HertausGOPR+17
33BCindy PughGOPR+9
34AJoyce PeppinGOPR+12
34BKurt ZellersGOPR+6
35AJim AbelerGOPR+6
35BPeggy ScottGOPR+11
36AMark UglemGOPR+4
36BMelissa HortmanDFLD+1
37AJerry NewtonDFLD+3
37BTim SandersGOPR+3
38ALinda RunbeckGOPR+7
38BMatt DeanGOPR+5
39ABob DettmerGOPR+6
39BKathy LohmerGOPR+4
40AMichael NelsonDFLD+15
40BDebra HilstromDFLD+16
41AConnie BernardyDFLD+8
41BCarolyn LaineDFLD+12
42ABarb YarussoDFLEVEN
42BJason IsaacsonDFLD+5
43APeter FischerDFLD+5
43BLeon LillieDFLD+6
44ASarah AndersonGOPR+5
44BJohn BensonDFLD+2
45ALyndon CarlsonDFLD+7
45BMike FreibergDFLD+13
46ARyan WinklerDFLD+14
46BSteve SimonDFLD+15
47AErnie LeidigerGOPR+17
47BJoe HoppeGOPR+12
48AYvonne SelcerDFLR+1
48BJenifer LoonGOPR+7
49ARon ErhardtDFLEVEN
49BPaul RosenthalDFLEVEN
50ALinda SlocumDFLD+13
50BAnn LenczewskiDFLD+6
51ASandra MasinDFLD+3
51BLaurie HalversonDFLR+1
52ARick HansenDFLD+7
52BJoe AtkinsDFLEVEN
53AJoAnn WardDFLD+5
53BAndrea KiefferGOPR+6
54ADan SchoenDFLD+5
54BDenny McNamaraGOPR+2
55AMichael BeardGOPR+6
55BTony AlbrightGOPR+15
56APam MyhraGOPR+6
56BWill MorganDFLR+3
57ATara MackGOPR+1
57BAnna WillsGOPR+4
58AMary Liz HolbergGOPR+11
58BPat GarofaloGOPR+10
59AJoe MulleryDFLD+32
59BRaymond DehnDFLD+31
60ADiane LoefflerDFLD+30
60BPhyllis KahnDFLD+30
61AFrank HornsteinDFLD+31
61BPaul ThissenDFLD+29
62AKaren ClarkDFLD+40
62BSusan AllenDFLD+39
63AJim DavnieDFLD+35
63BJean WageniusDFLD+24
64AErin MurphyDFLD+29
64BMichael PaymarDFLD+21
65ARena MoranDFLD+35
65BCarlos MarianiDFLD+28
66AAlice HausmanDFLD+16
66BJohn LeschDFLD+27
67ATim MahoneyDFLD+24
67BSheldon JohnsonDFLD+23

This post was written by Tony Petrangelo and originally published on LeftMN. Follow Tony on Twitter: @TonyAngelo

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