Pennsylvania polls diverse, but most show Clinton leading

Based on the compilation of the excellent pollster.com, as of late Monday, the table below shows the results of the seven most recent Pennsylvania primary polls. It’s a mix of pollsters, methods, sample size and duration (one, two or three days, but all ending with Sunday interviews). You can look at it two ways.

Way 1: More evidence that the polls are all over the map and therefore don’t tell us much.

Way 2: Throw out the two outliers (Suffolk University, which shows Clinton up by 10 percentage points, and Public Policy Polling, which shows Obama up by 3), and you have a remarkable consensus that Clinton leads by between 5 and 7 percentage points.

One last caution: In these seven surveys, the portion of the sample described as undecided ranges from 2 to 10 percentage points. At the upper end of that range, there is plenty of room for a fudge factor.

Let’s see what Pennsylvania’s Dem voters say?

PollsterSurvey datesLikely voters surveyedLeader/margin
Rasmussen4/20722Clinton +5
Zogby/Newsmax4/19-20602Clinton +6
Suffolk4/19-20600Clinton +10
PPP4/19-202338Obama +3
Strategic Vision4/18-201200Clinton +7
Quinnipiac4/18-201027Clinton +7
SurveyUSA4/18-20710Clinton +6

 

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