Based on the compilation of the excellent pollster.com, as of late Monday, the table below shows the results of the seven most recent Pennsylvania primary polls. It’s a mix of pollsters, methods, sample size and duration (one, two or three days, but all ending with Sunday interviews). You can look at it two ways.
Way 1: More evidence that the polls are all over the map and therefore don’t tell us much.
Way 2: Throw out the two outliers (Suffolk University, which shows Clinton up by 10 percentage points, and Public Policy Polling, which shows Obama up by 3), and you have a remarkable consensus that Clinton leads by between 5 and 7 percentage points.
One last caution: In these seven surveys, the portion of the sample described as undecided ranges from 2 to 10 percentage points. At the upper end of that range, there is plenty of room for a fudge factor.
Let’s see what Pennsylvania’s Dem voters say?
|Pollster||Survey dates||Likely voters surveyed||Leader/margin|
|Strategic Vision||4/18-20||1200||Clinton +7|