National prediction for post-election Minnesota Legislature: DFL likely to retain control

A national publication that looks long and hard at these things predicts that the Minnesota Legislature will remain in DFL hands after the Nov. 2 election, probably.

Its prediction says the state Senate will “likely” remain DFL, while the House “leans” DFL.

This from Governing, a publication that says it provides “intelligence and analysis on management, policy and politics to help guide and inspire innovative leaders across state and local government.”  It’s a subsidiary of e.Republic, a media firm dedicated to state and local government.

Its national legislative preview suggests that the prospects for Democrats around the country is worsening,with the prospect of the Democrats on the verge of “losing a net of four to 12 Senate chambers and six to 15 House chambers.”

DFLers will lose seats, but not control, in Minnesota, says the prediction:

Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party will likely lose a number of seats in both chambers, but the Democrats are in a somewhat better position here than they are in other states. While the Democrats currently control both chambers, the burden of the state’s grim fiscal situation is shared with an outgoing Republican governor, Tim Pawlenty.

Thanks in part to mediocre approval ratings for Pawlenty, Democrat Mark Dayton — unlike Democratic nominees elsewhere — is doing pretty well, leading Republican Tom Emmer by a modest margin. (Independent Tom Horner is also in the race.)

The House has more seats in play, in part because the DFL currently occupies a number of seats that, by the numbers, ought to be held by the GOP. A takeover of the House is unlikely, but not out of the question. The Senate, meanwhile, has interesting matchups, but it is considered less likely to flip.

The site also predicts the DFL attorney general likely will be re-elected:

Though the gubernatorial race is wide open, incumbent Lori Swanson should be able to keep the AG’s office in Democratic hands, as it has been for decades. The GOP had to settle for Chris Barden, a little-known recruit, late in the process, and he only won the primary with 54 percent. A potential wild card is Independence Party candidate Bill Dahn, but for now, call it likely Democratic.

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Comments (4)

  1. Submitted by John Olson on 09/29/2010 - 02:10 pm.

    Minnesota has a fairly well-documented history of having an unpredictable electorate. See James George Janos as an example of this unpredictability.

  2. Submitted by Thomas Swift on 09/29/2010 - 02:41 pm.

    About Governing.

    “GOVERNING is a subsidiary of e.Republic, the nation’s leading media firm dedicated to state and local government. e.Republic is also home to Government Technology, Emergency Management and the Center for Digital Government.”


    Scientology Inc.
    Publishing executives in Folsom are spreading the word on technology in government. Some employees say it’s actually the words of L. Ron Hubbard that are being spread.

    “Brian McDonough reported directly to the editor of the magazine, Wayne Hanson, who reported to Pearson, who reported to McKenna….Once a rising star with e.Republic, McDonough says he quit when he was denied a promotion.”

    “Like others in the company, McDonough had reservations about the prevalence of Scientology in the day-to-day workings of e.Republic….But a more troubling sign to McDonough was the way that Scientology was creeping into the company’s editorial product.”

    “Around the time I left I began to see Scientology working its way into the editorial content in ways that were objectionable to me,” he says.”

    I understand you have to take the good news from where ever you can find it, Joe; I’m just sayin’…..

  3. Submitted by John Olson on 09/29/2010 - 05:36 pm.

    And Bush 43’s “Faith-Based Initiative” was?? I thought so.

  4. Submitted by Tom Anderson on 09/30/2010 - 08:52 pm.

    It takes an outside source to predict that the DFL will have a majority in the Legislature? Who doesn’t know this? From Governor on down it will be DFL all the way with the only thing different from past years being the Governor’s office.

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