A national publication that looks long and hard at these things predicts that the Minnesota Legislature will remain in DFL hands after the Nov. 2 election, probably.
Its prediction says the state Senate will “likely” remain DFL, while the House “leans” DFL.
This from Governing, a publication that says it provides “intelligence and analysis on management, policy and politics to help guide and inspire innovative leaders across state and local government.” It’s a subsidiary of e.Republic, a media firm dedicated to state and local government.
Its national legislative preview suggests that the prospects for Democrats around the country is worsening,with the prospect of the Democrats on the verge of “losing a net of four to 12 Senate chambers and six to 15 House chambers.”
DFLers will lose seats, but not control, in Minnesota, says the prediction:
Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party will likely lose a number of seats in both chambers, but the Democrats are in a somewhat better position here than they are in other states. While the Democrats currently control both chambers, the burden of the state’s grim fiscal situation is shared with an outgoing Republican governor, Tim Pawlenty.
Thanks in part to mediocre approval ratings for Pawlenty, Democrat Mark Dayton — unlike Democratic nominees elsewhere — is doing pretty well, leading Republican Tom Emmer by a modest margin. (Independent Tom Horner is also in the race.)
The House has more seats in play, in part because the DFL currently occupies a number of seats that, by the numbers, ought to be held by the GOP. A takeover of the House is unlikely, but not out of the question. The Senate, meanwhile, has interesting matchups, but it is considered less likely to flip.
The site also predicts the DFL attorney general likely will be re-elected:
Though the gubernatorial race is wide open, incumbent Lori Swanson should be able to keep the AG’s office in Democratic hands, as it has been for decades. The GOP had to settle for Chris Barden, a little-known recruit, late in the process, and he only won the primary with 54 percent. A potential wild card is Independence Party candidate Bill Dahn, but for now, call it likely Democratic.