Early Minnesota political poll shows tighter races for Dayton, Franken

A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released Friday indicates Republican competitors of Gov. Mark Dayton and Sen. Al Franken are within single digits of the incumbents, with five months remaining until the election.

The poll, taken last week, has Dayton and Franken up by 6 points over their nearest competitors.

Dayton’s closest challenger is GOP-endorsed Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, according to the poll; for Franken, it’s Republican endorsee Mike McFadden, a businessman.

Both of those Republicans will face challengers in the August primary.

The new KSTP poll, which questioned 2,200 Minnesotans and which says it has a sampling error of +/- 3.1 percent, showed in the U.S. Senate race:

  • Franken 48 percent; McFadden 42 percent
  • Franken 48 percent; state Rep. Jim Abeler 39 percent

And in the governor’s race:

  • Dayton 46 percent; Johnson 40 percent
  • Dayton 46 percent; Rep. Kurt Zellers 39 percent
  • Dayton 46 percent; Marty Seifert 38 percent
  • Dayton 47 percent; Scott Honour 37 percent

Suffolk University Political Research Center poll in April, before the Republican convention two weeks ago, the endorsements and more news coverage of the challengers, showed Dayton and Franken both with double-digit leads over their nearest competitors. 

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Comments (9)

  1. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 06/13/2014 - 12:02 pm.

    Rule of thumb

    is that any incumbent who has numbers in the 40s is in trouble. You need at least 50% to win.

    • Submitted by jason myron on 06/13/2014 - 03:09 pm.

      Says the master prognosticater

      who’s been wrong with virtually every political prediction ever put forth on this board. Not to mention that it’s a KSTP poll

  2. Submitted by Mike Worcester on 06/13/2014 - 03:43 pm.

    More Info Needed

    Those results are a mere summary; more details would have been nice.

    For example, is the remainder of the percentage strictly “undecided”? How many refused to give an answer? Were these registered voters or likely voters? What kind of screen was used to filter the respondents?

    Considering the last few election cycles in this state, 45% is what someone needs to win. Kloubachar’s performance in 2012 was atypical of how our major elections have gone.

  3. Submitted by Dennis Tester on 06/14/2014 - 07:24 am.

    The significance of this poll

    is that these races are no longer seen as safe for the democrats and are now tight enough that money from around the country may soon flow into the candidates’ coffers and more independent TV ads may start to appear locally where they wouldn’t have appeared in a race that wasn’t considered close.

    We may start seeing ads from independent groups tying Franken to Obamacare, for example.

  4. Submitted by Peter Boyum on 06/20/2014 - 09:52 am.

    Franken TV ad

    Al Franken, in his most recent ad claims “That’s why I passed a bill…….”. Really, Al? If you passed a bill by yourself it would be a first for Congress.

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