The San Francisco Fed’s portrait of recovery

Via Economist’s View, here’s a snapshot of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s projection for the arc of the economy. It’s a graphic illustration of what a “prolonged U-shaped recession”–which is now the consensus of most economic forecasters–looks like. As you can see, it makes the sluggish post-2001 recovery seem robust by comparison. And the FRBSF is assuming that the economy has already bottomed out, which remains to be seen.

Here’s the FedViews release.

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Comments (2)

  1. Submitted by Doug Moodie on 05/20/2009 - 03:17 pm.

    Welcome to Japan.

  2. Submitted by Richard Schulze on 05/21/2009 - 06:54 am.

    Employment is the problem, and not the unemployment rate which just does not reflect the damage that is being done but a turn to significant and continued job creation which judging from the last 2 recessions will take growth of about 3% difficult for months.

    How the FRBSF can miss the noses on their face (Japan had full employment >5% the entire time the FRBSF was talking about ) and make assumptions that are laughable ( 5% real increase in disposable income ) is inexcusable …

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