The key to DFL dominance in the U.S. House may come down to the governorship, according to Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics blog.
Ostermeier predicts that the DFL will be looking to pick up six Congressional districts, as Minnesota faces the loss of its eighth House seat after the 2012 reapportionment.
The most vulnerable GOP seats, however, happen to have the best early fundraisers.
Republican Reps. Michele Bachmann and Erik Paulsen from the 6th and 3rd congressional districts, respectively, have already raised more money than Minnesota’s other representatives.
But Ostermeier suggests that “one potential pathway” for the DFL to oust a GOP representative will be to win the 2010 gubernatorial contest.
“Since the DFL merger in 1944 there has been a change in partisan control of the Governor’s mansion 10 times,” Ostermeier writes. “In 70 percent of these elections, there has also been a swing of at least one U.S. House seat for the party winning the gubernatorial contest, according to a Smart Politics analysis.”
Despite an interesting historical analysis, however, Ostermeier acknowledges that given the current district map, it will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.