Money floods 6th District: Here’s the projected spending for each vote

Rep. Michele Bachmann
MinnPost/Raoul Benavides
Rep. Michele Bachmann

After raising nearly $700,000 more money than her previous quarterly high-water mark set in Q4 of 2008, Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann set a new milestone in her bid for a third consecutive term in D.C.

Representative Bachmann — buoyed by an April fundraiser with Sarah Palin — raised $1.7 million in the 2nd quarter of 2010 according to her campaign, far more than the $1,073,462 she raised during the home stretch of her previous reelection bid against DFLer Elwyn Tinklenberg during the 4th Quarter of 2008.

With $4.1 million raised for the 2010 election cycle to date, a Smart Politics analysis finds that the Congresswoman can spend $13.41 for each likely voter in her 6th Congressional District – with 4+ months remaining to add to that tally.

The Census Bureau’s 2008 American Community Survey estimates there are 743,130 residents in Bachmann’s 6th District, with 73.2 percent of those residents at or above the voting age of 18, according to rolling three-year averages from the 2006-2008 Surveys.

That leaves a population of at least 543,971 residents in the Congresswoman’s district who are of legal voting age.

However, not all of these residents are eligible to vote, let alone are registered or likely to do so.

Tarryl Clark
Tarryl Clark

During the last mid-term elections in 2006, a total of 302,188 residents voted in the 6th CD race between Michele Bachmann and DFLer Patty Wetterling, or approximately 56.1 percent of the number of residents in the district at that time who were at or above the age of 18.

While turnout could very well be higher in Representative Bachmann’s 2010 matchup against DFL endorsee Tarryl Clark, Smart Politics estimates from the 2008 ACS data and 2006 mid-term turnout find there will be at least 305,711 6th District residents voting this November in the Bachmann-Clark race that also includes independent candidates Bob Anderson (who is endorsed by the Independence Party) and Aubrey Immelman.

With $4.1 million raised, and a pool of nearly 306,000 likely voters, that means Bachmann — even if she didn’t raise another penny — could spend $13.41 for each likely voter in her district.

By contrast, with $2.01 million raised to date, Clark could spend approximately $6.60 per likely voter.

Of course, both Bachmann and Clark will add handsome sums to their respective campaign coffers over the months to come.

Bachmann will likely surpass the $5 million mark for the 2010 cycle to date this quarter and perhaps $6 million and beyond before Election Day.

All told, the Congresswoman could easily raise enough money to spend $20 for each 6th District resident who votes in the Congressional race this November.

After including the $800,000+ raised by Maureen Reed, Elwyn Tinklenberg, and other third party candidates in the 2010 cycle, the $6.1 million raised by Bachmann and Clark to date, and the millions yet to pour into the Bachmann and Clark campaigns over the next four months, the money raised in the 6th CD could balloon to $35 to $40 per voter — and that does not including non-candidate advertising.

Media outlets throughout the 6th District and metro area are grinning ear to ear.

This article appeared on Smart Politics, the blog of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs. Smart Politics provides non-partisan analysis of public policy and statewide and district elections for Upper Midwestern and national politics.

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Comments (3)

  1. Submitted by Michael Hunt on 07/08/2010 - 09:45 am.

    Tell Michelle if I’m gonna vote for her, she’s gonna have to move the decimal point about 8 places to the right.

  2. Submitted by Patrick Garin on 07/08/2010 - 11:31 am.

    Are there really that many stupid people in the 6th district? Come on people open up your minds!!!!

  3. Submitted by Aubrey Immelman on 07/09/2010 - 01:16 pm.

    “… the Bachmann-Clark race … also includes independent candidates Bob Anderson (who is endorsed by the Independence Party) and Aubrey Immelman.”

    To clarify, in addition to the Republican and Democratic candidates, the race also includes a third major-party candidate (Independence Party nominee Bob Anderson) and an unaffiliated, nonpartisan, independent candidate (Aubrey Immelman).

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