It’s always an interesting poll that is remembered for seeing some of the Jesse Ventura surge in 1998. It is good news for Mark Dayton. Here are some highlights of the SCSU Survey Fall 2010:
As a prelude to the gubernatorial horse race question, on a 0-100 feeling thermometer, we found President Obama running a 49 mean temperature compared to his 58 temperature last year. We again checked in on Governor Pawlenty and found his temperature this year a 46 whereas he had a 53 last year. Former Governor Palin’s temperature remained 38 as it was last year. Of the three leading Minnesota Governor candidates, Tom Horner did the best with a 50 mean but nearly one-quarter of the respondents either couldn’t judge or didn’t know who he is. Mark Dayton came in second with a 48 mean temperature and only seven percent of the respondent either couldn’t judge or didn’t know who he is. Tom Emmer was the lowest with a 45 mean temperature and approximately 16 percent of the respondent either couldn’t judge or didn’t know who he is.
From all respondents in the sample, in a straight-up match between Mark Dayton, Tom Emmer and Tom Horner, we found that Mark Dayton gathered 37 percent of support of all respondents and 40 percent of likely voters. Tom Emmer came in second place with 27 percent of all respondents and 30 percent of likely voters. Tom Horner came in third with 18 percent of all respondents and 19 percent of likely voters. Importantly, 15 percent of all respondents and 5 percent of likely voters are still not sure of which, if any, candidate is their preference.
In terms of who is supporting the candidates, we found that in almost every single demographic category Mark Dayton is leading Tom Emmer and Tom Horner. The only indicator that Dayton is not leading his opponents is party identification. Indeed, 8 of 10 Democrats are supporting Dayton, but only 7 of 10 Republicans are supporting Emmer and 23% of Republican identifiers are supporting Horner. Although most Independent Party identifiers support Horner, more than one-half are not and of those, more support Dayton than Emmer. This applies to all respondents and for likely voters. Specifically, Dayton is carrying other the Twin Cities metro area and outstate, he is leading among both men and women, he is ahead in every income category and that even included upper income strata, and in every age group except for likely voters he is behind Tom Emmer in the 45-54 age group.