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Twins hit bottom — well, at least last place

• It might have been the low point of the Twins’ season had they been no-hit by Zach Stewart Monday night, but … well, I’ve lost count of low points by now. Instead, they merely lost both ends of a doubleheader to their biggest rival while scoring one total run, losing to Johan Santana trade castoff Phil Humber and a rookie with a 5.48 ERA. Not only are the Twins 8-27 in their last 35 games, they’ve now fallen into a tie with the Royals for last place in the AL Central.

Overall this season, the Twins have scored zero or one run in 26 percent of their games, tying the Mariners for worst in the league. And as bad as that sounds, they’ve been far worse recently, scoring zero or one run in 17 of 33 games since Aug. 1. To put that in some context, consider that the Yankees (13), Diamondbacks (15), Tigers (16), and Orioles (16) have all scored zero or one run fewer than 17 times all season. What a mess.

Jim Hoey, Kyle Waldrop and Brian Dinkelman were the first batch of reinforcements after Sept. 1 roster expansion, Liam Hendriks joins the team for his debut tonight against the White Sox, and the Twins have also promoted Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee to the majors. On my preseason list of the Twins’ top 40 prospects Benson ranked No. 6, and Parmelee was No. 19, and they’ve both improved their stock since then.

Benson in particular has emerged as arguably the team’s best prospect among players who’re close to MLB-ready, hitting .285/.387/.491 with 16 homers in 114 games at Double-A after the Twins had the 2006 second-round pick repeat the level despite batting .251/.336/.527 with 23 homers in 104 games there last year. He doesn’t project as a star, and high strikeout rates are a potential red flag, but Benson does a lot of things well and looks like a solid regular.

He’s played primarily center field at Double-A but figures to be a right fielder in the majors and should combine plus range with a strong arm. Offensively he’ll hopefully make up for mediocre batting averages with 20-homer power, solid plate discipline and good speed, although so far Benson hasn’t been an effective base-stealer. At age 23 and with zero Triple-A experience, he may not be quite ready for the majors, but Benson is close enough to take a long look.

Parmelee was the first-round pick in that same 2006 draft and initially looked like a rare Twins prospect with big-time pop and excellent plate discipline, but instead he’s worked to cut down on his strikeouts while trading power for a higher batting average. He hit just .250 with a .200 Isolated Power through four pro seasons, but has hit .286 with a .134 Isolated Power during the past two years. To put that in some context, Joe Mauer has a .148 career Isolated Power.

Whether that trade-off was smart for Parmelee’s chances of becoming an impact bat, a higher batting average and fewer strikeouts definitely makes him more likely to factor into the Twins’ plans. Parmelee, like Benson, spent two seasons at Double-A, hitting .282/.355/.415 with 21 homers in 262 games. Parmelee’s upside is tough to evaluate because he’s changed so much, but obviously slugging .415 at Double-A isn’t a great sign for a first baseman.

Matt Tolbert will also be rejoining the Twins as part of roster expansion despite hitting .145 during a 16-game demotion to Triple-A. Tolbert is 29 years old and will be out of minor-league options in 2012, so hopefully the Twins are willing to cut him loose after four seasons and 658 plate appearances of .232/.289/.323 hitting. Here’s a list of all the players in Twins history with more than 658 plate appearances and a lower OPS than Tolbert’s career .611 mark:

                      PA      OPS
Jerry Zimmerman      896     .514
Frank Quilici        768     .569
Matt Walbeck        1008     .571
Al Newman           1876     .581
Danny Thompson      2195     .605
Jerry Terrell       1561     .606

Considering he didn’t reach the majors until age 26 and was never even much good at Triple-A, it’s remarkable that Tolbert has hung around this long. He epitomizes “replacement level.”

• Arizona Fall League rosters have been announced, and the Twins are sending Aaron Hicks, Brian Dozier, Chris Herrmann, Cole DeVries, Scott Diamond, Dakota Watts, Brett Jacobson and Bruce Pugh. AFL participation isn’t necessarily meaningful in terms of where someone stands in the immediate plans. Last year, they sent seven players to Arizona and only Ben Revere has seen major time with the Twins, although the others included Benson, Parmelee, and Waldrop.

Hicks is the only top-10 prospect in the bunch, and he’s coming off a disappointing year, but it’s still an intriguing mix. Diamond is already in the majors after the Twins gave up hard-throwing reliever Billy Bullock to the keep the Rule 5 pick. Dozier has forced himself onto the prospect radar and is suddenly a Ron Gardenhire favorite. Jacobson was part of the J.J. Hardy trade. Herrmann led the organization in walks. DeVries, Pugh, and Watts are future bullpen options.

Trevor Plouffe is now 2-for-5 stealing bases for the Twins after going 12-for-25 in four years at Triple-A. He’s batted .264/.315/.431 with 15 extra-base hits in 156 plate appearances since returning from the minors in July and has even looked somewhat improved defensively when he doesn’t forget how many outs there are, but there’s no need for Plouffe to do any running. Only in Gardenhire’s fantasies is every middle infielder automatically an effective base-stealer.

Michael Cuddyer continues to receive seemingly endless praise for playing through injuries even though he’s missed 12 of the past 24 games and is hitting .171 with zero homers and 16 strikeouts in his last 20 games. Shocking as it may seem, sometimes even tough guys who’re beloved by the local media still have to sit out games, and sometimes playing through injuries just means playing poorly.

Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario did some historic mashing for rookie-level Elizabethton, with Sano homering 20 times in 66 games and Rosario homering 21 times in 67 games. That type of power is obviously extremely impressive no matter the context, but in this case it’s unheard of, as only two Appalachian League hitters had reached 20 homers in the past 20 years. Historic or not, rookie-ball numbers should be taken with huge grains of salt, but that’s pretty amazing.

• Back in August of 2008 the Twins sent Mark Hamburger to the Rangers for Eddie Guardado, who was a bust in his second go-around in Minnesota and appeared in just nine games. At the time, Hamburger was an undrafted reliever in rookie-ball, which is exactly the type of prospect teams part with for washed-up 37-year-olds, but in the three years since then, he’s developed into a reasonably promising low-leverage bullpen arm and Texas called him up last week.

Alex Wimmers walked the first six hitters he faced this year, was immediately removed from the rotation at high Single-A and spent three months trying to avoid going further down the scary Steve Blass/Rick Ankiel path. He rejoined Fort Myers as a reliever and then moved back into the rotation last month, pitching very well while avoiding any serious control issues. And on Saturday night, he threw a seven-inning no-hitter in his final outing of the season.

Perhaps more importantly than not allowing any hits, Wimmers issued just two walks and faced the minimum 21 batters in a 1-0 victory, with Aaron Hicks knocking in the lone run. Since his disastrous season debut and lengthy stay in extended spring training, Wimmers has thrown 41 innings with a 3.32 ERA and 39-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio while limiting opponents to a .189 batting average. He’s not out of the woods yet, but the 2010 first-round pick is back on track.

Liam Hendriks is also slated to come up from Triple-A and make his debut Tuesday against the White Sox. Hendriks ranked No. 8 on my preseason list of Twins prospects and has upped his stock since then by throwing 139 innings with a 3.36 ERA and 111-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio between Double-A and Triple-A. He projects as a mid-rotation starter, but with Gibson out and Wimmers a worry, the 22-year-old Australian is arguably the Twins’ top pitching prospect.

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Comments (5)

  1. Submitted by Ron Gotzman on 09/06/2011 - 12:26 pm.

    The twins should have been “sellers” at the trade deadline. The list of prospects would have been greatly enhanced if they would have made some trades instead of holding on to some of these veterans during a failed season.

  2. Submitted by Bill Schletzer on 09/06/2011 - 02:25 pm.

    I think we can look forward to years of mediocrity. They will continue to hold onto the M and M boys despite evidence of how unwise that is. Morneau will probably never have a healthy year again (I would love to eat those words). Mauer doomed the team when he held out for that fat contract. No other team in baseball would have valued him so highly and we only did because he’s a hometown boy. No small to medium market team is going to win with such a high percentage of the payroll going to one guy. Examples are Texas with A Rod and Garnett with the Wolves. These teams feel compelled to keep their big fan favorite at any price and then are doomed by their salary limits. 25 million for a singles hitter with a .290 average? Even in his best years Mauer was only worth that much off the field as a come on to the fans. No way is he worth that much on the field. Take the next two highest paid guys, maybe Morneau and Cuddyer. If all three players were healthy and you either had to subtract the two or the one (Mauer), which would you chose. Remember that Mauer can only play in the field 120-130 games or so in the field in a good year where the other two can play everyday when healthy. The future looks bleak.

  3. Submitted by david unowsky on 09/06/2011 - 03:10 pm.

    Wait until Vavra gets hold of those powerful minor leaguers. They’ll make contact and give up an out to move a runner from second to third. yahoo!

  4. Submitted by Arito Moerair on 09/06/2011 - 03:49 pm.

    The Mauer debacle was predicted by many pundits. The Twins were screwed no matter what they did. They’d have been booed endlessly had Mauer left. So they signed him for silly money and they’re paying the price, so to speak. The best they could’ve hoped for was superstar production from Mauer, which would have at least made it look like a decent investment. Obviously that has not materialized and probably never will.

    The Twins may be a mediocre team for years, but the owners won’t care too much. Females aged 15-45 will pay $50 to sit in Target Field and take a Facebook photo of themselves and friends whooping it up. What happens on the field is of little consequence to those people. Pohlad, Inc probably have at least a few more years of this little profit machine before people tire of the charade.

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