MinnPost is on its annual holiday break, which is my cue to pull back a bit and cite some of the more significant factors setting the course for the Timberwolves 2015-16 season thus far. With more than a third of schedule already in the books, there are no shortage of themes — most of them positive, for a change.
1. Rookie Karl-Anthony Towns is already playing like an All-Star
And has the maturity, work habits and environment to keep improving. Through the first 30 games of his NBA career, Towns is flashing a precociously broad-based skill set reminiscent of Tim Duncan as a rookie. This is remarkable because Duncan spent three more years at Wake Forest than Towns did at Kentucky honing those skills — and because Duncan has gone on to become one of the top three or four big men ever to play the game.
Towns’ only apparent flaws are borne of inexperience, as in leaving his man too soon to challenge a shooter. But the refinement of his game — his footwork in the low post, his ability to finish with either shooting hand, his dribbling, court vision, passing instincts, shooting range, timing on his shot blocking — already are rendered with such sophistication, it is difficult not to gush. Add to that: diligent work habits, a profound self-awareness about locker room dynamics and media relations, and the presence of the fiery Kevin Garnett as mentor, and it feels like Towns won’t fall victim to the psychological trap doors and mirror-ball myth-building that waylaid the last Timberwolves rookie who quicken the pulse and raised the hopes of the fan faithful this dramatically — Stephon Marbury.
Like Duncan, Towns seems like the kind of pillar around whom you can build a winning culture. Barring injury — the capricious grim reaper in the shadows of every athlete’s career — he seems poised to challenge Garnett’s sprawling dominance of the franchise record book. For now, he’s just fun to watch, because the more you pay attention, the more talent he reveals.
2. Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine have each taken a step forward this season
Aside from the near-nightly smorgasbord of delights Towns unveils each game, the most heartening thing about the Wolves season thus far has been Wiggins’ embracing the role of go-to guy in crunchtime. His coming-out party in that regard occurred in back-to-back road wins over the Bulls and the Hawks in early November, when he used his spin moves and leaping ability in both post-up and dribble penetration to get to the rim and elevate over bigger opponents, either scoring outright or drawing the foul.
Since then, defenses have geared up to stop him, but coach Sam Mitchell continues to feature the second-year swingman out of timeouts and in the clutch late in ballgames, feeding his confidence and stoking his competitive desire. Mitchell has also wisely deployed Wiggins primarily at shooting guard, where his lithe but long frame more often provides him with a matchup advantage. He remains the iron man of the rotation — the last starter subbed out of the game — which hurts his overall stat line but provides an important bridge for continuity of play and the resting of veterans in Mitchell’s substitution schemes. Given his quiet nature, it is perhaps fitting that, while a remarkably accomplished player yet to hit his 21st birthday, he is overshadowed somewhat by the emergence of Towns.
Zach LaVine is not nearly as accomplished, but he is no longer as much of a train wreck this season, sabotaging his teammates less often while playing out of position as the backup point guard. The biggest improvement is on defense. Last season, opponents scored an absurd 115.1 points per 100 possessions when LaVine was on the court. This season it is 106.8 points — hardly stellar, but proof that LaVine has honed his stance and other fundamentals while using his lateral quickness for better on-ball defense.
On the other side of the ball, LaVine has significantly cut down on his turnovers, mostly by wisely deciding to call his own number more often and by learning not to force passes or dribble penetration when the defense is set against it. He remains a phenomenal athlete who frankly has surprised me with his level of improvement thus far, as he once again is denied the opportunity to play his natural shooting guard spot due to ongoing presence of veteran Kevin Martin (who needs to be traded) and the recognition that Wiggins is also a “natural” two-guard right now.
3. The Wolves continue to be deficient in a crucial element of the modern NBA game
The shooting distance charts on the stats page at nba.com make for depressing reading, especially when you consider that the three-point shot is accomplished from a minimum distance that ranges from 22 feet away from the basket in the corners out to 23 feet, 9 inches at the top of the arc.
Relative to other NBA teams, the Wolves shoot most frequently from 15-19 feet out (third in the NBA) yet convert those midrange jumpers at a middling 16th best accuracy of 39.8 percent. From 20-24 feet out, the Wolves are 25th in frequency and yet 6th in accuracy, and from 25-29 feet out they are 23rd in frequency and next-to-last, or 29th, in accuracy. The numbers point to a mixture of bad philosophy and inept marksmanship. There is a sweet spot in that 20-24 foot range that needs to translate into more tight three-pointers and fewer long two-pointers.
This is obvious because the Wolves shoot the second-fewest three-pointers in the NBA and rank 26th in accuracy. Yet they aren’t forsaking threes for “better shots.” They rank 20th in the frequency of higher-percentage shots within 5 feet of the basket. They draw a lot of fouls — they lead the NBA in points per game from free throws — but, especially in crunchtime, are thus at the mercy of referees. Besides, more accurate three-point shooting will better space the floor and open up the painted area for even more layups and foul-drawing opportunities.
Sam Mitchell has acknowledged that a fair bit of his offensive philosophy is cribbed from the late Flip Saunders, who, despite all his many brilliant stratagems on offense, never properly utilized the three-pointer. To Mitchell’s credit, the Wolves are shooting 10 percent more threes than they were under Saunders at this time a year ago. But the 32.4 percent accuracy is down a titch.
Mitchell properly notes that there aren’t a lot of great long-range shooters on the roster. European rookie Nemanja Bjelica has been a disappointment from beyond the arc (33.8 percent) as well as on defense and adjusting to the NBA rigor, and three-point specialist Damjan Rudez lacks the defensive quickness to justify regular rotation minutes, despite making 47.4 percent of his attempted treys.
But Mitchell isn’t entirely off the hook here. Smart teams incorporate and prioritize the three-pointer into their set schemes as a growth opportunity for improvement, the same way Mitchell concentrates on and tolerates the growing pains of defense or ball movement. LaVine, Wiggins and Bazzy Muhammad are all players who are either exceptionally strong or quick at getting to the basket, compelling opponents to play off them on the perimeter. Developing a reliable three-pointer in their arsenal would be a huge benefit. Yet just 28.7 percent of LaVine’s shots are threes, and for Muhammad and Wiggins it is 22.8 and 15.6 percent, respectively.
Granted, merely chucking up treys is not a panacea for the offense, and the game is not as simple as the math, where 33 percent of three-pointers are worth as much as 50 percent of two-pointers. But developing a system and philosophy where the three-pointer is a viable, complementary weapon in a team’s offensive arsenal is a necessity to compete effectively in today’s NBA. And the Wolves don’t have that system or philosophy right now.
4. The veterans are earning their keep
When Kevin Garnett was awarded a two-year contract in excess of $16 million this summer, most observers believed it to be a steep price to pay for a part-time player who had already compromised his own negotiations by openly admitting he someday wanted to buy the franchise. But KG has invested himself — on the court as a tone-setting starter on defense, on the bench as voracious cheerleader and adviser, and in practice as a mentor whose heart is always in overdrive and whose brain is loaded with more than 20 years of NBA jousting, surviving the plummet from automatic Hall of Fame talent to dogged role player. The father of Karl-Anthony Towns recently said having Garnett as a teammate is the best thing that ever happened to his son’s career.
Tayshaun Prince and Andre Miller are considerably lower on the financial totem pole, pulling in slightly less than $2 million apiece this season. Both have been cited by younger players as being a positive influence on both the physical fundamentals and the mental approach to the NBA grind. Meanwhile, the Wolves defense is transformed from sub-mediocre to solid simply by adding Prince to the starting lineup, and Miller has rescued the Wolves offense more than once with his wizened point guard play this season.
5. Uncertainty lingers
In the day-to-day routines that put the season on a grid, the Wolves are doing a marvelous job of moving on from the tragic death the architect of the team, Flip Saunders, just three days before the opener.
But in the grand scheme of things, how this franchise will proceed post-Saunders is still very much up in the air. Both General Manager Milt Newton and head coach Sam Mitchell explicitly have the word “interim” before their job titles. Nor is it absolutely clear to the public how decisions are made and what nuances are rendered through the chain of command.
This matters because the Wolves suddenly possess the rights to two of the most talented and exciting players in the NBA for another four or five years, which thus becomes an absolutely vital stage in the ongoing development of both the franchise and its superstars-in-waiting. It makes the Wolves a coveted landing spot for anyone wishing to fill in the complementary personnel or chalk up the x’s and o’s for Towns and Wiggins moving forward.
How Newton and Mitchell will respond to the somewhat contradictory challenge of grooming the prized assets and putting wins on the ledger will be worth watching, especially at the February trading deadline. The needs of a coach and a general manager are not always in sync under the best of circumstances, let alone a subtle pressure cooker where both of working to earn extensions on their highly coveted jobs.
Owner Glen Taylor is likely to have some top-notch candidates to fill the posts once occupied by Saunders. On the other hand, Taylor has always preferred a family-type atmosphere — often derided as a “country club” — and front office and sideline employees whom he knows personally. And we don’t know how much, if any, input will be allowed to group in negotiations to buy 30 percent of the operation.
Thus far, this season has been successful in terms of developing the stars and winning some games on the court. But the schedule has become more rugged, and the campaign is long.
One thing seems fairly certain: The ambitious vision Saunders had for this makeover of the team has already been ratified by the events described above. I’ll delve further into that — and into the rest of this franchise on the rise, playing the best game on the planet — when we return in January.
Good positive article on Wolves. I agree on Wiggins and Towns being corner stones moving forward. I disagree on Lavine being a core player. When you have 2 guys to build around your support rotation role players 3-9, have to compliment your 2 stars. That means they understand their game, how it compliments your 2 stars and are willing to sacrifice for the betterment of the team. I don’t see those traits in Lavine. He takes hero shots, turns it over and is lost on D most possessions. Lavine reminds me of Gerald Green, freakish athlete still looking for his role/spot on good team 10 years into his career.
You’re not totally wrong
Joe–
You are frequently preaching to the choir here about LaVine. I have been pretty rough on him most of his young career and some of the things you cite are among the reasons.
But if we consider the theme of the piece–important aspects of the 15-16 season to date–the needle starts to tilt much more in LaVine’s direction. First, he is obviously highly valued by the franchise–more than you or I believe he merits perhaps, but we aren’t the ones who matter here. Bottom line, the powers that be for the Wolves are highly invested in developing LaVine…and the good news is that he is much better this season in the ways that I mention in the current piece.
When you have been writing as long as I have about this wonderful sport, it is always a really good idea to keep checking yourself for when initial impressions start to morph into biases that distort your thinking. I still don’t regard LaVine as highly as most every other Wolves pundit, but I have great respect for some of my brethren who do very much like LaVine’s future–and I would be dishonest and less credible if I didn’t acknowledge that he is improving more rapidly and probably further than I would have imagined he could after last season’s debacle.
No one can dispute he is a world class athlete. And it is difficult to dispute that he has the potential to be a formidable scorer via a combination of long-range shooting and drives to the rim. Whether all that will be harnessed cohesively and whether it will be enough to overcome lapses in court vision at both ends of the floor remain open for debate. For now, however, hard not to regard the LaVine of 2015-16 as a positive development.
Good stuff
But let’s not forget the presence of Ricky Rubio, who is playing arguably the best season of his career after signing a new contract. He’s still the straw that stirs the (increasingly potent) drink, *and* has improved his numbers playing next to Tayshaun Prince and KG, neither of whom can generate their own offense. While Ricky’s FG% is actually worse than it was last year (!), he’s getting to the line more (.55 FTs per FG attempt, compared to last year’s .32) and creating more assists. A few years ago I argued that a team could never win without a PG who can shoot, but Rubio is changing my mind about that.
As for LaVine, his improvement is also remarkable, and can be attributed to several things. As of today, he’s played 36 percent of his minutes at the SG position, compared with 6 percent last year. As such, his turnover rate has dropped, and yet his assist rate has actually improved. Dare I suggest that the last year playing out-of-position at PG was good for his growth? It’s probably too early to say on that one. It’s also worth noting that LaVine has the highest usage percentage, which is a measure of possessions used by a player when he is on the court, on the Wolves. Player efficiency tends to decline as usage goes up, yet LaVine’s efficiency numbers are about where they were last year (and they’re weren’t bad then or now, but there’s always room for improvement).
But yes, it’s really shot selection (and the accompanying inefficiency) that’s hurting this team the most. I don’t mind as much our big men taking long top-of-the-key shots since they’re set shots of a higher quality than the looks a guard might get, but it’s going to be impossible to raise that efficiency number, which is the most important of the “four factors” without taking and making more threes. (Though I’ll note we are very good at getting to the line, which is also very important.) Andrew Wiggins in particular needs to start making them more to stretch the defense.
Some more offensive rebounding wouldn’t hurt either. We’ve had way too many one-and-done possessions, especially w/o KAT on the floor. A few minutes out of Pek each night could be a nice luxury for this team, though I’m not holding my breath on his comeback.
solid as always
Good stuff here Anton.
I can quibble slightly about both Rubio and LaVine being somewhat overrated here. Unless Rubio wipes out the elasticity in his damaged legs and ankles too much by digging so hard on defense that it affects his shot after the first quarter–something I won’t entirely discount–I think he still needs to prove he can hit shots enough to open up the offense. But other than that, yes, he’s been marvelous.
LaVine is always going to be polarizing because he is so young and talented and yet with so many flaws that may or may not be correctable–I haven’t seen many players suddenly have a growth spurt in court awareness, which is one of his chief obstacles. But you are right, he has the potential to be a very dynamic player. I wouldn’t put too much on the efficiency rating because all that time at PG also enabled him to choose his own shots and shot selection has been one of his undoings on offense.
If he can hone himself into a catch and shoot or catch and drive player, and then concentrate on defense for the rest of his game, yes indeed, he might be special. That there is a lot of curve in that growth chart.
You’ve left out
another 19 year old: Tyus Jones.
He may or may not ever be a starter, but he knows how to play the point and gives the Wolves a backup point guard behind Rubio.
This in turn should free up LaVine to concentrate on his natural 2-guard position rather than trying to learn two positions at once. To me the Wolves backcourt of the future is Rubio and LaVine.
I don’t share your enthusiasm for Wiggins at the 2. He may benefit from the occasional mismatch, but he’s also hurt trying to keep up with smaller, quicker players. This in turn will sap his offensive play at the end of games. He’s a natural 3 — he’s got a quickness advantage against small forwards that let’s him exploit his penetration skills which so far are the most reliable part of his game.
Wiggins and KAT and more of that…
Britt, I think you’ve nailed the five major takeaways from this first part of the season.
A few thoughts: I think your call on LaVine is right. When Flip drafted him, he called it a home-run swing; he knew he was drafting an athlete and super-confident kid and hoping to teach him how to harness that into an NBA skill set. So far, so good. He started with so little experience, and really he’s come a long way already. (One thing to note is, if not for the rash of injuries last year, he wouldn’t have played that much. So we got to see/were forced to watch him play badly. Think about how the Wolves are using Jones this year–some D-League, some minutes, lots of sitting–that should have been LaVine last year. It’s not fair to him to remember too much of his play from last year.) The thing to watch for with LaVine is, is the team’s investment in developing him hindering anyone else’s development? As long as it isn’t (clearly, they are prioritizing Wiggins and his matchups over LaVine’s), there’s no downside to it. Where he and Wiggins and Bazz fit together…that’s a question for two years from now, when they are hopefully contending. For now, it’s all good.
I know I shouldn’t get excited about Tyus–I know he’s not ready to play major minutes in this league, and he’s getting punished on defense. But his court sense, his ability to create pace and get things going, and his skill, already, knowing how to set up and come off of a pick, are fun to watch. It’s one of the things I get most frustrated with Ricky about–when he comes off of picks, he rarely gets going downhill toward the hoop, or to the foul line where the defense has to make a decision about how to play him. I know some of it is the defender going under the screen, but he doesn’t cut the screen sharply enough most of the time, so the defender just follows him over the top and nothing is gained. Tyus already knows how to set up a pick and use it; it’s a skill that the team as a whole needs to get better at.
Looking forward to 2016. My prediction/hope for this year: Bazz will figure out enough defense to take over the starting three spot from Prince (really, Prince can’t play this many minutes much longer…), and Bazz will blossom into a real bright spot in the second half.
depth
The T wolves are as deep as they have ever been, talent wise. Jones is a better scorer than Rubio so that’s a good combination. Shabazz has been hitting lately, helps with the rebounding, and plays like he really wants a job. LaVine hurries some of the bombs he throws up late in the shot clock but he and Wiggins both look better this year. A little Pek for the bump and grind would really help. Basically they’re closing in on two deep at most spots with competitive NBA caliber players. Kmart is Britts’ bete noire but he is a professional gunner (see JRSmith) and a good one, so if there is a trade in the cards it better be for more really talented youth.