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The tenuous Timberwolves future of Zach LaVine

The tenuous Timberwolves future of Zach LaVine
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Pistons guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, right, dribbling the ball past Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine during the second quarter of the Feb. 3 game.

It has been a week now since Zach LaVine invoked his patented super-glide motion driving the lane for a successful layup against the Pistons in Detroit. The 21-year-old shooting guard for the Minnesota Timberwolves contorted his body sideways in mid-air yet still drew the foul, receiving just enough contact from 280-pound center Andre Drummond to land inelegantly as the ball went through the hoop.

The play didn’t look gruesome. LaVine stayed fallen for a few moments beneath the basket, wincing and writhing while clutching the thigh area above his left knee. But the collision had been slight by the standards of pro basketball and LaVine scoffed at a teammate’s offer to support his weight as he limped gingerly to the sidelines. After the timeout, he stayed on the court not only to shoot the free throw, but to play another five and a half minutes, grabbing a defensive rebound and dishing an assist off the dribble to teammate Gorgui Dieng.

But when LaVine came back into the game to begin the fourth quarter after a brief rest, he lasted 37 seconds, hobbling around the court before signaling for a substitution. The next day, an MRI revealed that he had torn the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in his left knee, requiring surgery that, without complications, would sideline him for the next six to nine months.

That is a damaging delay and disruption as the Wolves continue the vital tasks of developing their young core of players while gauging the upside of their collective talent against the financial parameters of their future.

Hope, hype, and dedicated losing

One of the many beautiful things about the National Basketball Association is that it gives struggling franchises a fighting chance to improve if competently managed.

There is a salary cap that impedes teams from harboring too much talent without player sacrifice or financial penalty, including a “luxury tax” imposed when teams finesse the rules to surge past the cap. And there is a four-year period of time during which franchises can hold on to their young talent at dramatically low cost — and even after that get the right to match the bids of other teams during a player’s first year of free agency.

For the past three seasons, the Wolves have stoked hope and hype under those protections. It has almost become a cliché to proclaim that they possess the most exciting collection of young talent in the NBA. Invariably, the names on the honor roll invoked to justify the boast consist of Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Zach LaVine.

Towns and Wiggins have won the past two Rookie of the Year awards. LaVine is a two-time slam-dunk champion and arguably has demonstrated more improvement than his higher-pedigreed colleagues this season. It is not uncommon for all three players to do something memorably spectacular during the course of a single game.

The rub is, much more often than not, the Wolves still lose the game.

Up until LaVine’s injury on February 3, the Wolves had a record of 64-150 in the nearly three years Wiggins and LaVine have been on the Wolves roster. With Towns added to that pair for nearly two years of that time, the record was 48-84.

Yes, there have been all sorts of contingencies that mitigate the terrible results. The Wolves were obviously tanking for a high draft pick — which turned out to be Towns — while going 16-66 during LaVine’s and Wiggins’ rookie season in 2014-15. The shocking death of franchise architect Flip Saunders right before Towns’ rookie season in 2015-16 undoubtedly was a drag on the team’s 29-53 record. And the decision by new architect Tom Thibodeau to hasten the maturity of his three budding stars via a trial-by-fire immersion together with minimal veteran support is a factor in the Wolves 20-33 mark this season (19-31 before LaVine’s injury).

Throughout this incubation period, there was always the comfort of knowing that the Wolves were in an evaluation phase, a time when they could literally afford to throw the kids into the deep end of the pool — LaVine as point guard, Wiggins as wing stopper even when defending much larger opponents — and see what happened. Whether they succeeded or not, it was all grist for development, for testing out the features beyond the bells and whistles in their respective sets of skills.

The LaVine injury is the first really significant intrusion on this theoretically risk-free process. More than that, it might be the dreadful buzzer announcing the end of “the kids will lead us to glory” joyride. Announcing that, too soon, it will be time to pay the fare.

Dollars and sense

Next October, both LaVine and Wiggins will enter their fourth and final season under exclusive control of the Wolves. If they don’t agree to new contract terms by the end of that month of October 2017, they will become restricted free agents. For all intents and purposes, then, LaVine’s injury closes the books on his NBA performance before Thibodeau and Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor make a decision about how much they want to commit to avoid putting him on the market.

Even before LaVine got hurt, viable projections of his future value could run the gamut from perennial All Star to capable role player.

Begin with the fact that he is a ton of fun to watch. His athleticism defies gravity while coated in silk. The form of his jump shot is a thing of beauty. His love of the game is palpable and guileless. His teammates love him. Ditto the vast majority of fans and media.

On the flipside, LaVine doesn’t do all the little things that help win games. His defensive recognition and reactions remain woefully inadequate. His intuitive decision-making at both ends of the court betray his talent to an alarming degree. And too much of his skill-set is redundant with Wiggins, providing less bang for the stupendous buck required to keep them both on the roster.

LaVine defenders have a cogent rebuttal. His defense and decision-making are demonstrably improving and the dude is still a month shy of his 22nd birthday. Besides, Towns and Wiggins have been nearly as wretched — and bigger disappointments, relative to projections — on defense. And as for unique skills, who on the roster spaces the floor with their outside shooting better than Zach?

At this juncture in his arc of development, it is fair to say that LaVine is very valuable. But paying him what he, his agent, and perhaps a rival general manager in the NBA think he is worth would be a huge, potentially devastating gamble for Wolves.

Let’s get down to figures. A maximum contract for someone is LaVine’s position next October will reportedly be $25.8 million per season. Obviously the same applies to Wiggins. That’s nearly $52 million a year for two incredibly talented but physically undersized (especially if they play together) wingmen. And don’t forget that Towns will be in the exact same situation a year after that — or perhaps owed more of a max, if he racks up some league-wide awards and honors in the interim.

That’s at least $78 million for three players, beginning in the 2019-20 season. While there are no reliable salary cap projections for then, the big cap increase as a result of the television contract is behind us. The 2018-19 cap is currently estimated to be $103 million, with the luxury tax being imposed at $125 million. This would be a tiny uptick from the 2017-18 cap projection of $102 million, with a $122 million luxury tax threshold.

Let’s say the 2019-20 cap is $104 million with a luxury tax level of $128 million. If you sign Towns, Wiggins and LaVine to the max deals each expects to receive, you have $26 million in cap room for the remaining 12 players on the roster and $55 million for that dozen before you start forking over millions more in tax penalties to the league.

If you believe the young trio pretty much by themselves can lead you to a ring, it is a sound investment. But wouldn’t it be nice if their teams could take a baby step and win more games than they lose before committing three-quarters of your salary cap space to the cause?

Musical chairs

It is quite possible, if not probable, that the Wolves will hedge their bets and retain only two of the three young kids. In that scenario, it is likely that LaVine would be the odd man out.

The sober fact of the matter is that throughout his NBA career, the Wolves have performed better when LaVine is off the court than when he is playing.

We won’t cite the huge discrepancy that occurred in his first two seasons because LaVine was played out of position at point guard for much of that time. Suffice to say that in his rookie season, no player has ever been less prepared to log so much time in the NBA — playing LaVine at the point was Saunders’ secret tanking strategy. And in his second season, LaVine rarely got to play with Kevin Garnett, or, until the second half, with Ricky Rubio, and those two were the largest factors in improved team performance.

This season the Wolves are -117 in the 1,749 minutes LaVine has played and +49 in the 810 minutes he has been out. Those who prefer analytics beyond that most basic statistic can point out that Wiggins fares worse on measures such as “box plus/minus,” which accounts for what teammates are on the court, win shares, and VORP (Value Over Replacement Players).

But eyes were opened when the Wolves rattled off impressive wins over Houston and Oklahoma City when LaVine was out with a previous injury in January. It added credence to the idea that, at the very least, LaVine and Wiggins were not synergistic.

There are some among the Wolves fan base who, forced to choose, would take LaVine over Wiggins. Thibodeau is not likely to join them. Despite the fact that LaVine arguably has a better handle on the dribble, it is Wiggins who Thibs has designated as his crunchtime players and chronic, if sporadic, “point forward” in the half-court offense. And in both eye test and statistical measure, Wiggins is a superior defender, despite frequently having to guard burly small forwards instead of shooting guards who are more easily contained by his strengths as a defender.

Clash at the top?

This does not necessarily mean that Thibs won’t push for all three of the kids to get max deals. After all, at the end of the day, it is not his money. It might also be telling that the places he has coached over the past 20 years — New York, Houston, Boston and Chicago — are major-market franchises with either large budgets and/or storied histories that create large expectations.

By contrast, Taylor presides over the least successful franchise in modern NBA history. Even amid the current renovations, Target Center is and will remain an outdated building. The fan base, burned by a steady succession of bait-and-switches about the future of this team, is variously cynical and apathetic.

Do the Wolves currently have an exciting product? By all means, which is why they rank 8th in average road attendance in the NBA. But average home attendance? Next-to-last at 29th.

Taylor has proven he will pony up for a legitimate chance to win. His signing of Garnett to a 6-year, $126-million contract stunned his fellow owners into a new collective bargaining agreement that introduced the salary cap in 1990s. His willingness to pay the luxury tax to add Latrell Sprewell as well as Sam Cassell cost him double Spree’s salary — from $14 million to $28 million — to underwrite the run to the conference finals in 2004.

But then Taylor was burned by Sprewell, who never received a penny after turning down the owner’s $21 million, three-year extension offer the following season. He vowed to look ahead beyond a single season in future negotiations.

Now he is looking at an incredibly expensive situation where deafening hype has not been matched by any semblance of even competent play. For years, the hype machine made the analogy between the Wolves core and what Oklahoma City put together seven or eight years ago. But by the time Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden were the ages of Wiggins, LaVine and Towns, the team had won 51 games and gone to the playoffs — and even then, ownership pulled the plug on Harden due to the looming expense.

Can Thibodeau, just one season into a 5-year deal that gives him control over the roster, convince Taylor to stay the course despite all the losing? Does he even want to go in that direction? These are the things that will begin to be determined in just eight months.

Meanwhile, since LaVine went down, Thibs has begun to turn up the heat on his two young stars, demanding better effort on the defensive end. It is the only path to winning games consistently enough to justify a splurge.

Barring a blockbuster deal, the Wolves’ three precocious kids will once again take the court for the 2017-18 season. But there will be distractions, be it from the failure of the team to negotiate new extensions for Wiggins and LaVine, the status of LaVine’s recovery, or the sudden pressure to deliver, at long last, on the promise of winning basketball in Minnesota. 

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Comments (7)

Interesting and sobering stuff!

It would be great if all three of them would be kind and go with $20MIL a year but my guess the pressure from their agents, family, friends, co-workers and players union will not allow that to happen. You also forgot that Gorgui will count 15MIL toward the cap, that only leaves 11MIL to sign any players and the with the players min going up in the agreement--I don't think you are gonna get much more than jersey fillers for those peanuts. It is going to be interesting to see if they extend Wiggins and not Zach and if that will create any Love like bitterness.

My hope is with Zach out that Thibs will slide Wiggins to 2 spot more often, especially if Lance is on the floor with him. Lance is more than capable to guard just about anyone on the floor and hopefully he is committed to acting like an adult and professional. The Wolves could really use his defensive skills on the team.

My guess is that Wiggins gets extended, Zach gets traded Feb 2018 for some picks a vet type player at 3.

Off-season and expedited timetables

I think this upcoming off-season will be the most important one for this franchise of the next 3-5 years. I know we agree that Thibs did a great job not over-extending our resources this past off-season during the big cap spike, especially given his win-now reputation. We will now have a great deal of cap space along with some pieces we can move during an off-season that boasts both a strong FA class and a much hyped draft class. Thanks to our focus this year on development and evaluation as opposed to maximizing our chances of winning (imho), we should still end up with a relatively high pick to either use in the draft or move in a deal, we will still have great young talent under team control with another year under their belts, plenty of money available for free agency or a high priced trade, and a handful of very movable contracts in the right situation to boot (Ricky and 'G' come to mind).

I think Thibs is playing the long game, which is slightly disappointing given the hype and expectations coming into the season (I even started a podcast! "Timberwolves Cold Takes" #shamelessplug) but at the same time the more his plan comes into focus the more I think it is/was probably the right move. I say that even with my sneaking suspicion that the high number of minutes he plays the big 3 contributed at least in part to Zach's injury.

I still wouldn't be surprised if we get ourselves into a bind with Zach after next year, even if we bring him back slow. I've often thought he would be an almost perfect 6th man on this team (like a Jamal Crawford on steroids) but I don't think that's a realistic possibility even if we bring him back off the bench to begin his time next year. I think the most likely scenario is that Wiggins gets his 5-year max extension this off-season, then Zach goes into RFA after next season and we just take our chances there depending on the type of comeback season he has. I don't see trading him as being super realistic next year with him coming off his injury unless someone makes a really aggressive offer for him. Too much of his value is based on his athleticism, and we don't want to sell low on a guy like that.

Max?

Does Lavine really warrant a max deal though? I'm not convinced he'd get a max deal as a RFA. Maybe from a bad team. He's far more one dimensional offensively than Wiggins and can't create his own shot anywhere near as effectively as either KAT or Wiggins. For me maxing KAT is a no brainer and Wiggins has shown far more in terms of what he can do right now and clear improvement over time and warrants a max deal. Zach will command some serious money for sure but I'm not too sure it'll be max money. But it would be the dream to see them all leave a little on the table in order to leave enough to build a team around them.

I'm not seeing this tenuousness

How much those 3 occupy the cap will be challenging to manage, of course, but it's hard for me to see that preventing them for paying up to keep Wiggins and LaVine (Towns being a given, barring serious injury). If new TV deals include new influxes of cash (I think the opposite will happen due to cord cutters), that gives them more room to work with.

It also can't be overlooked that the GM and coach have a history of replenishing their rotation and bench through developing low-1st and 2nd round picks, as well as undrafted guys, Jimmy Butler being the biggest example. Having their own D-League franchise accelerates this possibility as well. That reduces the potential concern for paying the tax and avoiding the repeater tax, which is the real problem for most owners.

Then, there's this year's draft pick. I don't want them to tank, but there's a good chance that if they keep whoever they pick, that person ends up being a better player than at least LaVine and possibly even Wiggins. This year's draft is deep with lottery talent; Kris Dunn probably wouldn't have even been a lottery pick if he'd stayed in school. The additional factor is how close they are to every other non-playoff team when it comes to record besides Brooklyn. They could win 35+ and still wind up in the top 10, or they could match last season's record and be in the top 3-5 simply because almost every team sees themselves as in the hunt. And their final stretch to close out the season is brutal enough that it could move them up quickly.

Finally, a decent player, even with an oversized contract, will likely be more valuable to the Wolves than cap space. Their window for getting an impact free agent is basically the next 2 seasons. After that, there will still likely be a market for guys like LaVine and Dieng if needed, where the Wolves won't have to give them away like they did Al Jefferson (even that could've been a decent trade if they hadn't given away Kosta Koufos for Anthony Randolph).

Trading Zach

Talented though he is, Zach LaVine is the team's most valuable trading chip. Moving him won't be hard; lots of teams would pay a high price in players and/or draft choices to get him. It would also allow the Wolves to move Wiggins to his natural position as shooting guard. Almost by default, the team's defense would be better.

Blessing in disguise?

While I wish Zach would NOT have gotten hurt, its entirely possible that this may actually help the wolves in the long run.

First, the wolves are going to find out whether or not there is really something to the notion that the wolves actually play BETTER (at least on D) when Zach isnt on the floor. Personally, I think it has more to do with the fact that we are playing 3 kids who are learning at the same time then it has to do with Zach. But if the Wolves play better D without him...even its its for what I think is the reason...it will hamper his value a bit. It would also show that the team is capable of playing better D if you can put the right veterans around Wiggs/Towns.

Second, I think one of the issues with this club has been the lack of a "pecking" order. Every team needs one. What we had is a "big 3" when the reality is...we probably really had a big 2 and a "kinda large" 3rd. This really should be Town/Wiggins team. By removing Zach for awhile i believe your going to see Towns and Wiggins take control of the team and erase any doubts about who are the most important players moving forward. I love Zach but it may be a case where "addition by subtraction" comes into play for the bigger picture. I've always felt Zach is best served as a 2 off the bench and Wiggins is a 2. We're already seeing Wiggins "take off" a bit since he's now being pushed a bit harder to up his game with Zach being gone.

third: In the end i think that this is going to cost Zach money while saving the wolves money. Zach shoudl come back but he wont be 100% for at least a year. Hopefully we've signed him to a lesser contract before then. A contract which shows faith in his ability to heal and recover, but one that also gives the wolves a break because there are no guarantee's that Zach will be back to what he was.

Now if we could just find a way to get Tyus in as the backup PG....

Right on

I'm right there with ya Germann on everything you and the person above you said. I normally don't comment on this stuff but the past 2 days I've had this epiphany on what the perfect T-wolves team is. Thibs already knows it and tried to do it last draft by trading Dunn for Butler but it wasn't fair for Chicago.

But now that we've seen how Towns and Wiggins have handled the team without Lavine, the number of away games that we have left and the difficulty of competitors that we need to face, it sets us up perfectly to now get Butler. It's fair for both teams.

Butler for LaVine, top 7 pick and Muhammed or Rubio.

Without LaVine and Rubio it opens a lot of cap space for us to also acquire a PF to help Towns and to allow us to bring G off the bench for the front court, which I believe is his perfect role on our team.

Starting lineup = Dunn, Butler, Wiggins, Gibson, Towns
Bench = Jones, Stephenson, Muhammed, Bjelica, Deng
Plus = Aldrich, 2nd round pick and a FA for backup

This wolfpack would be something truly special. The team would be chemistry incredible and I feel enough to beat the warriors.