Update: This piece has been updated to reflect reporting on the status of the Timberwolves’ interim President of Basketball Operations Sachin Gupta.
Last week’s column closed out one of the more enjoyable seasons in Timberwolves history by spotlighting the four people most responsible for the team’s surprising success. Now, as promised, we turn our attention forward, identifying three proactive measures the Wolves should undertake if they are going to sustain their momentum in what is likely to be a more competitive Western Conference in the years ahead.
First, let’s set the context with some cautionary caveats. It is far easier to plan an agenda than it is to execute it. The NBA has become increasingly dynamic in terms of roster churn and strategic moves and countermoves. Look back just three or four years ago at who was on what team, and consider how many players have moved, or had their value dramatically elevated or reduced, often due to their role drastically changing for myriad reasons.
Players get injured, unhappy, impatient — and, albeit less often, the positive opposite of all of that. They get buffeted by changes in team management, their egos volleyed around by agents, endorsement deals, entourages, social media and family life. There are a steady welter of motivating factors, many hidden from public view, which are colliding, refracting and otherwise influencing the strategic status quo in front offices around the league. A single trade of a superstar inevitably has many ripples.
Consequently, stating specifically what a team should do is a fool’s errand. As much as we all enjoy speculation, especially in the offseason, we have incomplete knowledge and even less control — it is, de facto, idle speculation.
Of course this works both ways. Just as a scenario that seems like a logically good maneuver may in fact be impossible to execute, there are scenarios that currently seem like silly pipe dreams that might be exploited if the right ripples or confluence of circumstances occur. At this point in time — heading into the Conference Finals — a year ago, who had Patrick Beverley coming to the Timberwolves for the 2021-22 season?
What follows then, is a look at three ways the Timberwolves might improve their competitive standing for the 2022-23 season and beyond. When specifics are cited, they are meant as prototypes, and serve as examples of action that don’t seem like ridiculous reaches. For example, taking Chet Holmgren in the NBA draft on June 23 would transform the frontcourt and be a marketing bonanza to boot, but would require a variety of fantastical precursors to become a reality. By contrast, taking EJ Liddell, while still a longshot possibility, serves as a far better prototype for what might be possible to address a certain need.
So let’s get started.
Beef up the frontcourt
As detailed in last week’s column, Wolves head coach Chris Finch did a splendid job of devising an aggressive “high wall” defensive scheme that shielded the weaknesses of the team’s two max-salary players while leaning into the rugged on-ball defensive leadership of Beverley and the wiry athleticism of power forward Jarred Vanderbilt. It became the Wolves calling card the first six weeks of the season.
But inevitably opponents scouted and plotted responses to the scheme, reducing the ambush component that had bolstered its effectiveness. Eventually the Wolves broadened and varied their forms of coverage — they ran a little zone, and switched a little more frequently on pick and rolls. But by default, the “high wall” remained their bread and butter, largely because they didn’t have enough size and brawn on the roster to effectively deploy the classic rim-protecting “drop” scheme that is a staple of a majority of NBA teams.
Vanderbilt’s dogged hustle became a crucial element of the Timberwolves identity and is one of the sweeter stories of the 2021-22 season. But he remains an undersized frontcourt partner for finesse-oriented starting center Karl-Anthony Towns in many defensive situations. And on offense, the Wolves are limited in what they can do because Vando’s shooting range is ridiculously small.
How small? Vando had 361 field-goal attempts in 2021-22. More than 78% of them, 285, were in the restricted area right down near the rim. Another 16% of them, 57, were in the painted area. That means he attempted 19 shots from outside the paint over the entire season. Worse, he made exactly two of those 19 shots (both corner treys), which comes out to 10.6% shooting. Add in the measly 31% of his shots he converted in the paint (but outside the restricted area) and Vando was never a serious threat to score unless he was cutting toward (or already stationed at) the area right beneath the basket.
Opponents utilized this gift in two different ways. Most effectively, they put their more mobile frontcourt player, who would normally be guarding the power forward, on KAT instead. That enabled them to put their classic big man down near the basket, where he could simultaneously keep an eye on Vando and slide over to trap and double-team KAT, reducing the effectiveness of the Wolves best shooter and most efficient scorer. Or they could rest their high-octane playmaker and subpar defender — for Memphis that would be Ja Morant — by having him guard Vando.
To be clear, Vando is not a total liability on offense. The turnovers he generates on defense often turn into highly-efficient scoring opportunities for the Wolves in transition, and he is the best on the team at extending possessions by getting offensive rebounds, followed by rapid, usually smart passes to teammates for open looks at second-chance points. And that’s why, despite his non-existent shooting range, the Wolves scored more points per 100 possessions, 115.5, with Vando on the court than with any other player except KAT.
To sum up, Vando remains an important member of the Wolves rotation, with a significant role to play at both ends of the court. But his lack of size and brawn on defense and inability to space the floor with any credible shooting range on offense both make the game more difficult for KAT, the team’s best player.
Those limits are glaring because the Wolves don’t have good counter-measures elsewhere on the roster, which bears the legacy of former president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas, who never prioritized the power forward position aside from a slight fetish for “stretch fours” — relatively scrawny outside shooters, the “light trucks” of the NBA.
To accommodate Finch’s defensive scheme — which had him guarding at the leverage point of the pick and roll, in or adjacent to the painted area but further away from the hoop — KAT lost 15 pounds and picked up quickness and core strength. He remains a mediocre-at-best rim protector. Backup center Naz Reid is a better shot-blocker but is likewise a finesse player, with a flimsy low-center of gravity that invites being bullied close to the hoop. Third-string center Nate Knight is more rugged but not very large, and is extremely foul-prone.
At power forward, the primary backup and occasional starter is Jaden McDaniels, who has acceptable length at 6-foot, 9-inches, and is a skilled, tenacious defender who plays with a competitive chip on his shoulder. But he is also 185 pounds soaking wet, a 21-year old kid who hasn’t fully filled out his lithe body, and has the spidery appendages that indicate he may never possess a brutish physique. Although he adapted some over time, McDaniels was in constant foul trouble early in the season as opponents learned that the best way to negate his many defensive virtues was to go right at him, especially when he was guarding power forwards. By default, he played two-thirds of his 1,800 minutes at the four last season (per the stats at basketball-reference.com), but everyone knows he is ideally suited to be a wing-stopper — even Finch, who thinks he can do anything and sorely needs players who match up with brawny opponents.
A player who is a hybrid center and power forward and can also shoot from outside would go a long way toward solving the trifecta of frontcourt issues confronting the Wolves, which is why Indiana’s Myles Turner has been the most popular subject of trade chatter among the team’s fan base for more than a year now.
Good luck with that. By dealing Domantas Sabonis to Sacramento in midseason, the Pacers eliminated the redundancy problem they had in the frontcourt with Turner and Sabonis, and Turner still has another year left on what is a bargain $18-million contract for this season. Players who can flexibly perform both frontcourt positions at either end of the floor are coveted around the league, and that just begins to describe Turner, who has led the NBA in blocks per game twice in his career, has made more than a third of his three-pointers on over four attempts per game the past three seasons, and is in his prime at age 26.
More likely, the Wolves can only afford less perfect remedies, such as more than one player to address their different frontcourt needs, or a hybrid vastly inferior to Turner. I’d prioritize those needs as having a staunch power forward who could double as a small ball center and shoot enough from distance to compel at least minor attention. Within those parameters, there are modest to moderate options on the free agent market that include Nicholas Batum (most recently with the Clippers), Bobby Portis (Milwaukee), Kyle Anderson (Memphis) and, less ambitiously, Mike Muscala (Oklahoma City).
Remember, all the caveats apply, and some of these names could be scratched off for various reasons. But that is the type of player I think the Wolves need. The aforementioned EJ Liddell of Ohio State is the potential draft pick that currently seems like the most viable match between availability and affordability. But even Liddell may be out of reach. He hangs a rugged 240 pounds on a 6-foot, 7-inch frame and has been optimistically likened to Boston’s recent playoff hero Grant Williams and Golden State’s perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Draymond Green, so there is a good chance the Wolves would have to trade up some from their 19th draft slot, even if it is a couple of places to get ahead of Chicago.
As for centers, the best free-agent fit is Isaiah Hartenstein (again of the Clippers), with Dwayne Dedmon (Miami) also worth a look. Thomas Bryant (Washington) has skills but doesn’t measure up well on defense and might be simply a rich man’s Naz.
Prepare for a transition in the backcourt
This recommended precautionary move is premised on a few things happening, which may reflect my biases more than those of the front office and ownership of the Wolves. That said, I think there is a fair chance we are in alignment.
The first premise is that accelerating the development of Anthony Edwards is the best avenue by which the Wolves make a leap that keeps them playoff eligible, perhaps even at a higher seed, in a Western Conference that figures to be much stronger in the next few years. The star-player comp I believe best blends aspiration and reality with respect to Ant is Paul George. There are obvious discrepancies: Ant is four inches shorter than PG13 (although at age 20 he is still growing) and doesn’t necessarily project to be his equal on defense. But he is reminiscent of George in that he is already a force to be reckoned with at both the rim and from beyond the three-point arc. There is also the tantalizing possibility that Ant can get to PG13’s level as a comprehensive playmaker — a high-usage ballhandler who can average 4-5 assists per game.
The second premise is that there is a decent chance that D’Angelo Russell will be dealt either during the offseason or, more likely, at the February trading deadline, when his expiring contract makes him a more flexible potential asset on the market. Until or unless that happens, I think there will be an awkward short-term fit between DLo and the Wolves, based on their divergent opinions as to his proper role on the team and his compensation for those services.
There was a lot to like about DLo during the 2021-22 season. He bought into his role as an effective off-ball defender and shrewd, vocal communicator after Finch instituted his high-wall scheme. Although he experienced shooting slumps at the beginning and the end of the season, the greater volume of treys in his shot mix put his true shooting percentage above his career average. His passing was never better — he set career bests for both assists per game and assist-to-turnover ratio. Last but not least, for much of the season he was a pretty successful go-to guy in crunchtime.
DLo let it be known just before the onset of the 2021-22 season that he was gunning for a contract extension, and the details just cited give him ammunition to reiterate that desire into request, if not a demand. But it isn’t that simple.
First off, as the surprise factor on the high-wall scheme wore off and opponents were able to reduce the chaos it caused, DLo’s off-ball role diminished in effectiveness. After the All-Star break, the Wolves allowed more points per 100 possessions with DLo on the court than with any other player — 119.1 points, with Ant being a distant next-worst at 116.2.
Second, after an inspired performance in the play-in game that helped the Wolves topple the Clippers and become the seventh seed, DLo had a wretched first-round playoff series as a playmaker against the Grizzlies. (Ironically, his on-ball defense in those six games was a pleasant surprise.) Aware that he had averaged 31 points in the four games against them during the regular season, Memphis deployed perhaps their best perimeter defender, Dillion Brooks on DLo, and the results weren’t pretty. By the deciding sixth game of the series, the difference in the team’s offensive rhythm and proficiency when backup Jordan McLaughlin was on the court compared to DLo was so pronounced that Finch benched his max-salary starter and went with J-Mac in crunchtime.
DLo was understandably peeved about it during his exit interviews with the coach and then the media the next morning. But it is difficult to see how some fundamental issues between player and team get resolved amicably over the long haul.
The “first principles” of Finch’s offensive style are ball movement and player movement off the ball. Those are both stimulated by a rapid pace and Finch cherishes players who ignite momentum with a go-go mindset. Nobody fits that criteria better than J-Mac, who ranks alongside McDaniels as a Finch favorite. Now, even Finch wouldn’t choose to start J-Mac over DLo, who is simply a superior player. But DLo likes to vary the pace, play cat-and-mouse with defenses, keep everybody guessing. And even when he was not shooting well early this past season, he got up his share of shots in the first quarter.
Being a player who doesn’t easily fit Finch’s offensive template isn’t that onerous, as Finch believes in letting his best players do what they want for the most part. No, the uneasy fit that is likely to doom DLo’s tenure here regards his diminished role if Ant is assigned more responsibilities as a lead playmaker.
The equation goes like this: DLo wants a contract extension. He is not likely to get it this offseason, as KAT will probably be named All-League and thus be eligible for a “super max” contract he’ll sign before the 2022-23 season opener. So the only way he’ll earn a lucrative extension is proving himself during the 2022-23 campaign. But it is possible, if not probable, that his role will be diminished next season, and even if it isn’t, it is hard to see the Wolves opening their wallets for another DLo max contract given their other future obligations (like non-rookie scale deals for Ant and McDaniels), and, frankly, his performance thus far.
DLo will be paid $31 million on the final season of the four-year, $131-million sign-and-trade deal he inked with Brooklyn, who then sent him to Golden State as a way to acquire Kevin Durant in 2019. The feeling around the league is that DLo is currently overpaid, meaning the Wolves are unlikely to get fair value from any off-season deal.
It’s an awkward situation — unless I’m a “DLo hater” and the Wolves seek to maintain or even expand his role next season, either as a “prove it” dare or to enhance his value at trade deadline. But if the front office does address its needs in the frontcourt, we are likely to see more minutes for McDaniels at his natural small forward position, which would move Ant back to shooting guard. Meanwhile, the question lingers — how do you maximize and accelerate Ant’s development and enhance DLo’s role and contribution at the same time?
Give Sachin Gupta a two-year deal
It is a fact of life that new owners of professional sports franchises have a powerful need to meddle. Another fact of life is that their meddling screws things up far more often than it helps.
Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez are charismatic individuals with large egos. It comes with the territory. The twist here is that compared to their peers in the franchise-owning business, Lore and A-Rod are relative paupers, and are likely to be more inclined to compensate in areas where they are relatively wealthy, like charisma and ego.
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Chris Finch and his entire coaching staff received raises and salary extensions at the end of this season. Meanwhile, interim president of basketball operations Sachin Gupta remains in an interim limbo, neither fired nor officially rehired for the position. That intrigue doesn’t happen without some resistance to Gupta from within the organization.
Finch, who rightfully exerts enormous influence and has earned great respect throughout the Wolves hierarchy, has loudly touted his support for Gupta, stating that much of his success this season stems from their collaboration. Glen Taylor, who is selling the franchise to Lore and A-Rod in increments but still maintains majority control for this upcoming season, is also believed to be in Gupta’s corner. But six weeks before the NBA draft, the limbo remains.
I’ve voiced my support for Gupta in a previous column and have heard the arguments in debate with those who believe Gupta “hasn’t done anything” to earn the position. But when you are in charge assembling the roster of players, you make decisions but what you don’t do as much as what you do. Gupta could have made a short-term splash at the expense of a long-term asset at the trading deadline, but that likely would have meant saying goodbye to either Taurean Prince or Malik Beasley, the two players most often cited as trade chips back in February. Both went on to have strong second halves, helping boost the Wolves into the seventh seed. But it might have satisfied the “he didn’t do anything” crowd.
In addition to standing pat at the trading deadline, Gupta did make one crucial, albeit low-key move. His re-signing of Beverley for one-year at $13-million was exactly the right mix of time and money to best facilitate the Wolves development arc next season and in years to come.
Since Lore and A-Rod bought their first piece of the franchise, the Wolves organization has brought in former Klutch executive Marquise Watts and given him the vague title Chief Experience Officer (CXO). More significantly, on the organization’s hierarchical chart, the CXO is at a level parallel to Gupta’s interim position as POBO, and to CEO Ethan Casson.
When the hiring was announced, it felt to me like a pathway to meddling by new ownership. But thus far, there has been little public evidence to support my paranoia that Watts would become a disruptive surrogate for Lore and A-Rod. Meanwhile, this past week Gupta was enabled enough to hire former Grizzlies video coordinator Steve Senior as his assistant general manager. Hiring Gupta for a minimum length of two years would be a nice cap on these indications of ongoing harmony over personnel decisions among ownership and the front office.
One of the most enjoyable seasons in the ongoing evolution of a franchise is the one when a team quickens its potential into burgeoning achievement. That was the story of 2021-22 for the Timberwolves and its fans. By contrast, one of the most difficult challenges in the ongoing evolution of a franchise is ratifying that newfound glee and deepening the faith of everyone associated with the franchise by sustaining the progress against much tougher odds. That is the tall order for whatever contingent of people are guiding the decision-making for 2022-23.
With a beefed up frontcourt, the development of future cornerstones Ant and McDaniels accelerated by putting them in the best positions for them to succeed, and a happy, coherent and unified chain of command, the Wolves can put some traction on joy and some credit on new ownership for knowing a light touch is sometimes the right touch.
Update: Since this column was written, reportage by my colleagues on the Wolves beat indicates that new ownership is seeking a “Top 5” president of basketball operations to work alongside Gupta. If that is in fact the “plan,” it is a clumsy attempt to minimize and alienate Gupta, and, to a lesser extent, Finch. It would be exactly the sort of amateurish meddling I feared would occur.
I want to hone in on the frontcourt, Britt. Of the four possibilities you cited, I gravitate more towards Kyle Anderson and Nicholas Batum and less towards Bobby Portis and Mike Muscala.
Muscala has rarely been a starter or had anything close to starter minutes. Its hard to see him step into the role the team seems to need. My knock on Portis is that he is just 27 and been with four teams in seven seasons. With the exception of Pat Bev, the Timberwolves are all under 28 and I suspect we have just one more season with Pat Bev as the elder statesman.
Anderson is 29 and Batum 33. Anderson’s eight seasons are split evenly between San Antonio and Memphis. Good pedigree and good tenure. His offense is serviceable. If the Timberwolves could get his next four years that might be a very good thing. Batum may not have four good years left, but he’s a a heady, team-oriented player with good shooting numbers who can contribute as a respected vet.
Thanks as always for enriching the experience of being a Timberwolves fan, Britt.
Thanks Jeff–
Muscala is what he is: A “stretch 5” who provides rebounding, floor-spacing and a keen knowledge of his role coming off the bench. The “less ambitiously” before his name means he is a lower-cost option if the Wolves have spent their resources in other places. I actually admire how he has tailored himself to be of use in the modern NBA.
You are selling Portis short. He is a bit of a hot-head, and I frankly think he loves the Bucks too much to leave unless it is nearly impossible to stay. But he is a scrapper who plays larger than his body, defends, rebounds and can shoot decently from the wing.
Of Batum and Anderson, I like Batum more but he is older and may be looking for a team closer to a championship than the Wolves. I like that he came in as a small forward–he has retained some of those skills–while honing his brawnier advantages as he has widened and aged. Anderson is a smart player with a long wingspan, a tad less brawny than I would prefer for the role the Wolves need, but again a vet he knows his role and can capably provide a little flexibility as a wing as well.
Besides the obvious things like “having talent” and “avoiding significant injuries,” sustained success in the NBA usually comes down to coaching, competent veterans, and continuity (I wasn’t trying to be alliterative). Of those 3, they should be looking to bolster their vets by adding guys who can play and lead. I don’t have enough information to know who’s available or a positive cultural presence, but it’s clear, Prince or no, they need more vets in that rotation. The continuity aspect is tricky when it comes to Russell. Dallas trading Porzingis for 2 lesser, overpaid, competent players is a big reason why they’re in the conference finals, but most of that has more to do with Luka and with that 5-out, paint-or-3s style being favored by the current rules. That’s likely the kind of trade they’d be looking at, and there are so many accumulators who don’t help winning but look okay as a return if you don’t look too closely.
The roster will eventually need balance. Their clear top 7 (Towns, Edwards, Russell, Beverley, Vando, McDaniels, Beasley) is too light, and they don’t have enough size (height or weight) in their other bench positions to compensate. Besides the backup C options, if Derrick Favors was basically shelved by OKC so they could tank better, he’d be worth a look for upgrading a couple of their deficiencies. I’m guessing any legitimate long-term 4 next to Towns will have to come from the draft; anyone else just would provide more diversity of options (partially why I think the names except Portis are a little redundant with what they already have).
Always appreciate you coming by PSR.
The Porzingis comp as a template for a DLo deal is one I wish I had thought up–Dane Moore used it as well yesterday on twitter. Like DLo, Porzingis has regressed in value relative to his former promise, and I’m not sure the Mavs even understood how much losing him would unlock Powell and the two wings, Finney-Smith and Bullock, plus get you a re-energized Dinwiddie off the bench. In a perfect world, we would discover DLo to be a similar logjam on the rotation, but I think that is less true and that DLo is also a better player–giving Ant more oxygen as a playmaker along with DLo’s almost-certain unhappiness about his contract are why I think his departure is ordained.
I get you on the need for veterans and I obviously agree about the need for incoming brawn. Am curious about Naz’s value on the trade market; he has some definite skills, can be an eye-opening flashy-finesse big and still has a sweetheart contract. The last time Favors was getting regular minutes he looked woefully slow. The dalliance with Greg Monroe shows the Wolves might want that prototype, although Monroe is the better playmaker and Favors the better rebounder and rim protector. Not sure who, but I think they can get a Favors type who is a tad quicker and younger and still a veteran.
I can’t think of much that would make me stop following the TWolves, Kyle Anderson at the four might be the one thing that would do it.
That’s a bizarre hill to die on, Paul.
It was bad enough watching him travel all over the place in the Memphis – Wolves series and not see it called. Slo Mo confuses everyone, including the refs. I can’t imagine watching that game in game out.
For years we’ve heard the drumbeat of “we need a big to put some brawn in the front court, protect the rim, and give us some rebounding.” And I don’t disagree; I’ve been beating that drum myself. But that is the checkers answer to the Wolves’ dilemma, or at least it seems so in the squalid corners of my basketball mind. The chess answer seems to be the subtraction of DLo.
Sometimes we become so enamored of a particular player’s skills that we fail to see that it is those very skills that are causing the problem. To my mind, DLo’s hunt and peck style will forever limit the Wolves’ ability to play the type of game that Finch seems to want and the young core seems built to play. I think this is the source of much of the ambivalence I and so many others feel about DLo’s game. He is so good at what he does that we fail to see the full implications of the fact that what he does well is not what the team needs. Of course his skills can be utilized to good effect, and Finch seems to be a master at putting players in a position to succeed. But that does not mean it is the optimal situation for either DLo or the TWolves.
If the Knicks and the Lakers have shown us anything, it is that talent, poorly mixed, produces bad results. DLo has talent and it is hard not to be smitten with that talent when it is on full display. But I submit that he is the right player on the wrong team. The key to a meaningful trade is finding the situation where a team needs what he offers and the TWolves can get something of utility and value in return.
I guess what I’m saying that this is as much a “Free DLo” post as it is a “Get rid of DLo” post. This is not a Wiggins situation where someone has to figure out how to free up what’s there; it is more a situation where someone has to figure out how to best take advantage of the obvious skill that is already on full display.
Is this Gupta’s call? Is it Lore’s and Rodriguez’s and Taylor’s? Is it even the right call at all?
I really like DLo. I like his cerebral approach to the game. I like his cool take on things, though moreso after the games than during the games. Put him in the right place in a role that he accepts and he could once again be an all-star. Keep him on the TWolves and I see trouble coming, because neither he nor the Wolves are getting maximum value from the situation. Throw in the upcoming contract situation and I think you have lit a slow burning fuse that is destined to blow up something.
Good man, good time, good run. Time to move on. Do it right and the TWolves blossom and DLo shines. Can’t ask for much more than that.
Great to hear from you Kent.
I am of the same mind, in that I think (and am hopefully not projecting) that under the circumstances, a move is as good for DLo as it is for the Wolves. Certainly the pace thing (which is within the play as much as throughout the game; you are right about “hunt and peck”) is part of it but also simply not enough room for three roles to blossom prominently on offense, as if you have to choose an odd player out, it would be DLo.
I do think we need some brawn, which is why it is the first-stated priority. But I always think if we model a logical progression for development for this team, the answer is recognizing the need for moving DLo before it gets too much more obvious.
If the team added Hartenstein and drafted EJ Liddell isn’t there a positive impact on DLOs fit assuming he is willing to adapt? The additions would provide more 5-out options on offense, better rebounding, better rim protection, more drop coverage in defense and better overall screen setting.
Yes, and good thinking.
But as I stated above in various places (the copy and the comments section), it is as much about unlocking Ant as it is subtracting DLo.
You make a good point that if DLo had better supports, be it personnel or Finch preferences, it would further enhance his own game. And who knows, that may be what is in the cards in terms of front office priorities.
But then the other thing is the contract. Pretty sure DLo isn’t going to take less, and would bet on himself in the open market. What he wants money-wise and whether that would be the best way for the Wolves to spend, is another inevitable issue.
Thanks Britt for a great column. You did not discuss Beasley and I wonder what his role will be with the team. How can he set a t-wolves record for most 3’s in a game and then fail to show up in the playoffs?
As good as your column is, the comments and your answers to them are equally interesting.
Thanks Jerry and I agree, I cherish my commenters and really enjoy the engagement. (Sorry that didn’t happen enough in the aftermath of the last column–crazy week.)
Beasley’s role likely won’t change. If you look around the league, you’ll discover a disproportionate number of 6th and 7th men in the rotation are three-point shooters, if not specialists. That’s because 40% shooting from distance is admirable, meaning there will be many nights when the marksmen aren’t hitting their marks–when that happens you need to be able to move off them quickly without huge disruption to the rest of your players and the roles and rotations.
Beasley is a natural three-point specialist. Ironically, one of his closest comps is Duncan Robinson of Miami, who has likewise been played off the floor in the postseason, where the grit of the game and the need to play defense in rough company is heightened. The Heat have Max Strus to do a lot of what Robinson does, along with Tyler Herro who is even more of a redundant skill set.
Beasley remains a valuable component of the team. But as with most long-range shooters who don’t do a tremendous amount of other things beside hit that approximately 40% accuracy on treys, that value will be scrutinized and regulated for maximum efficiency.
Hi Britt, thanks for your always-thoughtful and well-argued pieces. I heard you and Dane on the podcast breaking down the Tim Connelly rumor and its implications for the Wolves. I agree that continuity and fit are important; I agree that making sure Finch is empowered and in alignment with the front office is key; and I agree that Sachin has done a good job, including not trying to make a splash at the deadline but instead do what was best for the team. But I do disagree with both you and Dane in your assessment of Connelly.
He’s an excellent exec with a great track record. Top five, not top five–who knows, but he’s up there. You and Dane were seriously undervaluing the job he has done in Denver over the last decade. The Nuggets are among the very best in the NBA at player development. Connelly has put in place (or extended and grown something Ujiri may have started) a system to draft or sign and then markedly increase the value of a whole pipeline of players that have helped them contend. Obviously Jokic is the big win here (and the judgment he had to trade Nurkic at the right time and show confidence in Jokic’s ability to blossom), and Murray, but there are many others: Monte Morris, Gary Harris, Torrey Craig, PJ Dozier, even Malik and Juancho, now Hyland and Concar. This is key for a small-market team like the Wolves. They did great in 2018 with JMac, Naz, Nowell, but since then the alignment and commitment there has dried up. I have commented on this before: it seemed like a waste to let a two-way slot go unused last year, and to have Wright all year and Knight through the end of the year when it became clear neither was a keeper. Obviously there are resources here to invest in the development of Ant and McDaniels, but a team like the Wolves needs to find significant value up and down the roster, and then knowing how to cash that out at the right moment.
Connelly’s track record of team-building in a small market is enviable, and I think hiring him could really be great. He has experience that Gupta doesn’t, and perhaps he’s brought into some role that allows him broad authority while also allowing Gupta to stay and have substantial authority. Ujiri was elevated to some super-exec role and Bobby Webster is GM; perhaps that’s the kind of model they’re considering here.
Hey Robert, thanks for weighing in.
I like Connelly. I just think the risk overtakes the reward on the scales.
Would agree that choosing Jokic over Nurkic was well-timed and prescient. But what about overpaying Harris and now MPJ?
More to the point, though, do you really think a big dog the new ownership clamors to bring in is going to be a seamless and harmonious fit with Gupta and Finch? You heard the podcast so you know my arguments about chemistry and my paranoia about meddling. We’ll just have to agree to disagree–not necessarily about Connelly, who I believe is a very good POBO, but about this particular tinkering by these particular people at this particular time. Put succinctly, when a Wolves operation isn’t broken–a very very rare occurrence–what is the real motivation behind Lore and A-Rod “fixing it”?
Britt, I actually agree with your basic points about continuity, meddling; my first choice is to hire Gupta as well. I mostly wanted to say that, of the range of people they might be pursuing (if they feel they need to pursue someone) Connelly seems like about as good a fit as you could imagine–relationships with Finch and Nori, a set of skills we need and having built an organization we aspire to model ourselves after, by all accounts someone of minimal ego that people really like working with. It seemed like you and/or Dane were talking about him as just another guy; I think he’s better than that.
I will say, this report has been out there a while now… seems like if it was going to happen it would’ve happened already. We’ll see.