It was a tough year for Republicans in Minnesota, and that wasn’t something money could fix. Despite attempts to localize House races, the November midterm election was largely a referendum on President Donald Trump, mostly adjudicated in the Twin Cities suburbs.
DFLers’ success in the suburbs propelled them to victories in the competitive governor’s race, attorney general’s race and in the race for the Minnesota House of Representatives.
But how money was spent shows that GOP groups were doing what they could to make a bad situation better. According to year-end reports filed last week with the state Campaign Finance Board, Democrat-affiliated groups spent heavily in the governor’s race, while Republican groups appeared to devote their resources in an attempt to hold the House.
Those spending patterns were established after the August primary and continued through the end of the campaign.
All-told, Democratic outside groups outspent Republican groups by nearly five-to-one in the governor’s race, while Republicans outspent Democrats by nearly 50 percent on House races. (An important caveat: The Minnesota Jobs Coalition, a major Republican-affiliated spending group, had not filed its report by last week’s deadline and is not included in the data.) The flow toward House races by GOP-leaning groups began once Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson surprised everyone except perhaps himself in defeating former Gov. Tim Pawlenty in the Republican primary for governor.
The spending map
Outside spending is money spent to influence elections by groups outside the candidate’s campaign, including party-affiliated groups.They are banned from coordinating with the campaigns, but they’re run by political veterans who know the ropes.
(That spending is separate from money donated directly to campaigns and spent by the candidates, and usually amounts to far greater than candidates spend. In direct spending, Democratic nominee for governor Tim Walz raised $4.6 million, including a public subsidy of $480,333, and spent $4.6 million. Johnson raised $2.7 million with a subsidy total of $361,259. Johnson spent $2.7 million.)
The pattern of fleeing the governor’s race and trying instead to hold on to the GOP majority in the House was so well established that even Pawlenty himself followed it. His year-end report showed that he distributed money he raised for a general election he wasn’t going to be part of mostly toward legislative races.
Pawlenty made token donations to three of his party’s nominees for statewide office: $15,000 to Johnson, $5,000 to attorney general nominee Doug Wardlow and $1,000 to state auditor nominee Pam Myhra. But his biggest check — $70,000 — went to a political committee that spent much of its money attacking House DFL candidates. The Minnesota Jobs Coalition had already spent $710,000 through October 22. While it has not yet filed its year-end report, DFL candidates continued to suffer attack mailings from the coalition.
Pawlenty gave another $20,000 to the House Republican Campaign Committee and made individual contributions of $1,000 each to 18 House GOP candidates and 11 Republican Senate candidates who won’t be on the ballot until 2020.
To that end, Pawlenty made his final donation in a way that shows his campaign is aware of the stakes next election, giving $5,000 to Sen. Paul Anderson of Plymouth who is considered the most-vulnerable Republican in 2020.
And where is his district? In the same suburbs that provided the DFL with its winning majority last election.
Where else did Minnesota’s big spenders put their money?
The attorney general race
The spending differential in the attorney general’s race was even more stark than the governor’s. Groups seeking to help elect DFLer Keith Ellison spent nearly $2 million, or more than 12 times the $162,000 spent to help elect Republican Doug Wardlow.
Almost all of the outside money spent to help Ellison came from the DFL State Central Committee, listed as having spent nearly $1.9 million, largely on TV, radio and digital ads against Wardlow.
Where spending by candidates is concerned, eventual winner Ellison raised $1.148 million and spent 1.105 million. His subsidy was $96,067. GOP-nominee Wardlow nearly matched Ellison’s totals, raising $949,203, spending $937,614 and receiving $72,252 in public subsidy.
The Minnesota House
Groups supporting Republican candidates for the Minnesota House spent at least $1.5 million more than their DFL-aligned counterparts. It wasn’t enough for Republicans to hold the House. Despite the spending differential, Democrats picked up 18 seats to take the majority.
In the battle for control of the House, the Twin Cities suburbs saw the lion’s share of spending.
Outside spending for GOP
Greater Minnesota | Metro | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2A
House District 2A No spending data reported |
|||||||||||||||||
1A
House District 1A No spending data reported |
1B
House District 1B No spending data reported |
2B
House District 2B No spending data reported |
6A
House District 6A No spending data reported |
6B
House District 6B No spending data reported |
3B
House District 3B No spending data reported |
3A
House District 3A International Falls Total spending: $23,456.81 Candidates:
|
|||||||||||
4A
House District 4A No spending data reported |
4B
House District 4B Dilworth Total spending: $34,010.41 Candidates:
|
5A
House District 5A Pennington Total spending: $105,272.29 Candidates:
|
5B
House District 5B Cohasset Total spending: $157,763.19 Candidates:
|
7B
House District 7B No spending data reported |
7A
House District 7A No spending data reported |
||||||||||||
8A
House District 8A No spending data reported |
8B
House District 8B No spending data reported |
10A
House District 10A No spending data reported |
10B
House District 10B No spending data reported |
11A
House District 11A Esko Total spending: $26,775.87 Candidates:
|
30A
House District 30A No spending data reported |
30B
House District 30B No spending data reported |
35A
House District 35A No spending data reported |
35B
House District 35B No spending data reported |
31B
House District 31B East Bethel Total spending: $589.11 Candidates:
|
32B
House District 32B No spending data reported |
|||||||
12A
House District 12A Total spending: $363.60 Candidates:
|
9A
House District 9A No spending data reported |
9B
House District 9B No spending data reported |
15B
House District 15B Becker Total spending: $1,000.00 Candidates:
|
11B
House District 11B No spending data reported |
34A
House District 34A Rogers Total spending: $17,502.42 Candidates:
|
36A
House District 36A Champlin Total spending: $306,083.21 Candidates:
|
36B
House District 36B No spending data reported |
37A
House District 37A Spring Lake Park Total spending: $256,594.62 Candidates:
|
37B
House District 37B Blaine Total spending: $112,464.47 Candidates:
|
38A
House District 38A No spending data reported |
38B
House District 38B Dellwood Total spending: $190,246.65 Candidates:
|
39A
House District 39A No spending data reported |
|||||
12B
House District 12B No spending data reported |
13A
House District 13A Rockville Total spending: $38,423.81 Candidates:
|
13B
House District 13B No spending data reported |
15A
House District 15A No spending data reported |
32A
House District 32A No spending data reported |
34B
House District 34B Maple Grove Total spending: $270,402.63 Candidates:
|
40A
House District 40A No spending data reported |
40B
House District 40B No spending data reported |
41A
House District 41A No spending data reported |
41B
House District 41B No spending data reported |
42A
House District 42A Shoreview Total spending: $184,828.24 Candidates:
|
42B
House District 42B Roseville Total spending: $11,112.07 Candidates:
|
43A
House District 43A No spending data reported |
|||||
17A
House District 17A Prinsburg Total spending: $343.07 Candidates:
|
17B
House District 17B No spending data reported |
14A
House District 14A St. Cloud Total spending: $17,444.75 Candidates:
|
14B
House District 14B St. Cloud Total spending: $14,508.43 Candidates:
|
31A
House District 31A No spending data reported |
44A
House District 44A Plymouth Total spending: $303,681.49 Candidates:
|
45A
House District 45A No spending data reported |
45B
House District 45B No spending data reported |
59A
House District 59A No spending data reported |
60A
House District 60A No spending data reported |
66A
House District 66A No spending data reported |
66B
House District 66B No spending data reported |
67A
House District 67A No spending data reported |
43B
House District 43B No spending data reported |
39B
House District 39B Stillwater Total spending: $176,375.66 Candidates:
|
|||
16A
House District 16A No spending data reported |
18A
House District 18A No spending data reported |
29A
House District 29A No spending data reported |
29B
House District 29B No spending data reported |
44B
House District 44B No spending data reported |
46A
House District 46A No spending data reported |
59B
House District 59B No spending data reported |
60B
House District 60B No spending data reported |
64A
House District 64A No spending data reported |
65A
House District 65A No spending data reported |
67B
House District 67B No spending data reported |
53A
House District 53A No spending data reported |
||||||
16B
House District 16B No spending data reported |
18B
House District 18B No spending data reported |
47A
House District 47A Waconia Total spending: $1,000.00 Candidates:
|
33A
House District 33A Greenfield Total spending: $1,000.00 Candidates:
|
33B
House District 33B Chanhassen Total spending: $192,425.86 Candidates:
|
46B
House District 46B No spending data reported |
61A
House District 61A No spending data reported |
62A
House District 62A No spending data reported |
63A
House District 63A No spending data reported |
65B
House District 65B No spending data reported |
53B
House District 53B Woodbury Total spending: $241,487.61 Candidates:
|
54B
House District 54B Cottage Grove Total spending: $160,062.88 Candidates:
|
||||||
19A
House District 19A North Mankato Total spending: $125,732.13 Candidates:
|
20A
House District 20A Elko New Market Total spending: $1,000.00 Candidates:
|
20B
House District 20B Northfield Total spending: $215,068.05 Candidates:
|
58B
House District 58B Farmington Total spending: $1,000.00 Candidates:
|
21A
House District 21A Red Wing Total spending: $22,385.75 Candidates:
|
21B
House District 21B No spending data reported |
48A
House District 48A Minnetonka Total spending: $24,632.92 Candidates:
|
49A
House District 49A Edina Total spending: $32,061.97 Candidates:
|
61B
House District 61B No spending data reported |
62B
House District 62B No spending data reported |
63B
House District 63B No spending data reported |
64B
House District 64B No spending data reported |
52A
House District 52A No spending data reported |
54A
House District 54A St. Paul Park Total spending: $225,579.18 Candidates:
|
||||
22B
House District 22B No spending data reported |
19B
House District 19B No spending data reported |
23B
House District 23B Lake Crystal Total spending: $64,521.64 Candidates:
|
25B
House District 25B No spending data reported |
24B
House District 24B Faribault Total spending: $27,238.50 Candidates:
|
25A
House District 25A Byron Total spending: $13,170.06 Candidates:
|
28A
House District 28A No spending data reported |
47B
House District 47B Chaska Total spending: $77,573.45 Candidates:
|
48B
House District 48B Eden Prairie Total spending: $175,218.37 Candidates:
|
49B
House District 49B No spending data reported |
50A
House District 50A No spending data reported |
50B
House District 50B No spending data reported |
51A
House District 51A No spending data reported |
51B
House District 51B No spending data reported |
52B
House District 52B Inver Grove Heights Total spending: $225,146.95 Candidates:
|
|||
22A
House District 22A No spending data reported |
23A
House District 23A No spending data reported |
24A
House District 24A No spending data reported |
26B
House District 26B Total spending: $15,880.21 Candidates:
|
26A
House District 26A No spending data reported |
27A
House District 27A Albert Lea Total spending: $31,168.15 Candidates:
|
27B
House District 27B No spending data reported |
28B
House District 28B Preston Total spending: $69,525.29 Candidates:
|
55A
House District 55A Shakopee Total spending: $140,433.25 Candidates:
|
55B
House District 55B No spending data reported |
56A
House District 56A Savage Total spending: $163,180.41 Candidates:
|
56B
House District 56B Lakeville Total spending: $305,389.65 Candidates:
|
58A
House District 58A Total spending: $7,224.81 Candidates:
|
57A
House District 57A Apple Valley Total spending: $319,443.61 Candidates:
|
57B
House District 57B Rosemount Total spending: $147,637.22 Candidates:
|
Legend
- Up to $319,443
- Up to $255,554
- Up to $191,666
- Up to $127,777
- Up to $63,888
- No spending data reported
Outside spending for DFL
Greater Minnesota | Metro | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2A
House District 2A No spending data reported |
|||||||||||||||||
1A
House District 1A No spending data reported |
1B
House District 1B No spending data reported |
2B
House District 2B No spending data reported |
6A
House District 6A Total spending: $1,452.94 Candidates:
|
6B
House District 6B Virginia Total spending: $2,969.75 Candidates:
|
3B
House District 3B Total spending: $1,452.94 Candidates:
|
3A
House District 3A International Falls Total spending: $108,474.18 Candidates:
|
|||||||||||
4A
House District 4A Moorhead Total spending: $431.27 Candidates:
|
4B
House District 4B Dilworth Total spending: $28,206.51 Candidates:
|
5A
House District 5A Pennington Total spending: $24,892.38 Candidates:
|
5B
House District 5B Cohasset Total spending: $163,533.40 Candidates:
|
7B
House District 7B No spending data reported |
7A
House District 7A Total spending: $984.94 Candidates:
|
||||||||||||
8A
House District 8A Total spending: $313.00 Candidates:
|
8B
House District 8B Total spending: $313.00 Candidates:
|
10A
House District 10A No spending data reported |
10B
House District 10B No spending data reported |
11A
House District 11A No spending data reported |
30A
House District 30A No spending data reported |
30B
House District 30B No spending data reported |
35A
House District 35A Total spending: $208.44 Candidates:
|
35B
House District 35B Total spending: $300.35 Candidates:
|
31B
House District 31B No spending data reported |
32B
House District 32B No spending data reported |
|||||||
12A
House District 12A No spending data reported |
9A
House District 9A No spending data reported |
9B
House District 9B Little Falls Total spending: $566.78 Candidates:
|
15B
House District 15B No spending data reported |
11B
House District 11B No spending data reported |
34A
House District 34A No spending data reported |
36A
House District 36A Champlin Total spending: $146,477.83 Candidates:
|
36B
House District 36B Brooklyn Park Total spending: $2,997.27 Candidates:
|
37A
House District 37A Spring Lake Park Total spending: $157,151.36 Candidates:
|
37B
House District 37B Blaine Total spending: $166,059.83 Candidates:
|
38A
House District 38A No spending data reported |
38B
House District 38B Dellwood Total spending: $82,312.16 Candidates:
|
39A
House District 39A Forest Lake Total spending: $1,175.06 Candidates:
|
|||||
12B
House District 12B No spending data reported |
13A
House District 13A No spending data reported |
13B
House District 13B No spending data reported |
15A
House District 15A No spending data reported |
32A
House District 32A No spending data reported |
34B
House District 34B Maple Grove Total spending: $235,783.14 Candidates:
|
40A
House District 40A No spending data reported |
40B
House District 40B No spending data reported |
41A
House District 41A No spending data reported |
41B
House District 41B No spending data reported |
42A
House District 42A Shoreview Total spending: $192,161.44 Candidates:
|
42B
House District 42B No spending data reported |
43A
House District 43A No spending data reported |
|||||
17A
House District 17A No spending data reported |
17B
House District 17B No spending data reported |
14A
House District 14A St. Cloud Total spending: $2,614.67 Candidates:
|
14B
House District 14B St. Cloud Total spending: $38,510.00 Candidates:
|
31A
House District 31A No spending data reported |
44A
House District 44A Plymouth Total spending: $255,254.02 Candidates:
|
45A
House District 45A Total spending: $410.94 Candidates:
|
45B
House District 45B No spending data reported |
59A
House District 59A No spending data reported |
60A
House District 60A No spending data reported |
66A
House District 66A No spending data reported |
66B
House District 66B No spending data reported |
67A
House District 67A No spending data reported |
43B
House District 43B No spending data reported |
39B
House District 39B Stillwater Total spending: $115,969.26 Candidates:
|
|||
16A
House District 16A No spending data reported |
18A
House District 18A No spending data reported |
29A
House District 29A No spending data reported |
29B
House District 29B No spending data reported |
44B
House District 44B No spending data reported |
46A
House District 46A No spending data reported |
59B
House District 59B No spending data reported |
60B
House District 60B Minneapolis Total spending: $1,308.30 Candidates:
|
64A
House District 64A No spending data reported |
65A
House District 65A No spending data reported |
67B
House District 67B No spending data reported |
53A
House District 53A Total spending: $86.50 Candidates:
|
||||||
16B
House District 16B No spending data reported |
18B
House District 18B No spending data reported |
47A
House District 47A No spending data reported |
33A
House District 33A No spending data reported |
33B
House District 33B Chanhassen Total spending: $52,798.58 Candidates:
|
46B
House District 46B Total spending: $92.27 Candidates:
|
61A
House District 61A No spending data reported |
62A
House District 62A No spending data reported |
63A
House District 63A No spending data reported |
65B
House District 65B No spending data reported |
53B
House District 53B Woodbury Total spending: $150,940.99 Candidates:
|
54B
House District 54B Cottage Grove Total spending: $35,216.03 Candidates:
|
||||||
19A
House District 19A North Mankato Total spending: $185,343.05 Candidates:
|
20A
House District 20A No spending data reported |
20B
House District 20B Northfield Total spending: $61,934.37 Candidates:
|
58B
House District 58B No spending data reported |
21A
House District 21A Red Wing Total spending: $2,162.73 Candidates:
|
21B
House District 21B No spending data reported |
48A
House District 48A Minnetonka Total spending: $66,285.67 Candidates:
|
49A
House District 49A Edina Total spending: $122,004.39 Candidates:
|
61B
House District 61B No spending data reported |
62B
House District 62B No spending data reported |
63B
House District 63B No spending data reported |
64B
House District 64B No spending data reported |
52A
House District 52A No spending data reported |
54A
House District 54A St. Paul Park Total spending: $197,630.72 Candidates:
|
||||
22B
House District 22B Mountain Lake Total spending: $450.66 Candidates:
|
19B
House District 19B Total spending: $741.94 Candidates:
|
23B
House District 23B Lake Crystal Total spending: $17,122.04 Candidates:
|
25B
House District 25B Rochester Total spending: $32,348.65 Candidates:
|
24B
House District 24B Faribault Total spending: $908.14 Candidates:
|
25A
House District 25A Byron Total spending: $1,164.94 Candidates:
|
28A
House District 28A No spending data reported |
47B
House District 47B No spending data reported |
48B
House District 48B Eden Prairie Total spending: $218,009.90 Candidates:
|
49B
House District 49B Edina Total spending: $2,165.23 Candidates:
|
50A
House District 50A No spending data reported |
50B
House District 50B No spending data reported |
51A
House District 51A Eagan Total spending: $386.02 Candidates:
|
51B
House District 51B Eagan Total spending: $418.24 Candidates:
|
52B
House District 52B Inver Grove Heights Total spending: $214,510.05 Candidates:
|
|||
22A
House District 22A No spending data reported |
23A
House District 23A No spending data reported |
24A
House District 24A No spending data reported |
26B
House District 26B No spending data reported |
26A
House District 26A No spending data reported |
27A
House District 27A Albert Lea Total spending: $2,091.30 Candidates:
|
27B
House District 27B Austin Total spending: $15,057.54 Candidates:
|
28B
House District 28B Preston Total spending: $2,635.93 Candidates:
|
55A
House District 55A Shakopee Total spending: $3,165.21 Candidates:
|
55B
House District 55B No spending data reported |
56A
House District 56A Savage Total spending: $191,870.80 Candidates:
|
56B
House District 56B Lakeville Total spending: $203,084.43 Candidates:
|
58A
House District 58A No spending data reported |
57A
House District 57A Apple Valley Total spending: $140,040.62 Candidates:
|
57B
House District 57B Rosemount Total spending: $137,821.71 Candidates:
|
Legend
- Up to $255,254
- Up to $204,203
- Up to $153,152
- Up to $102,101
- Up to $51,050
- No spending data reported
The most expensive House race was for 44A, the suburban Plymouth seat that saw DFLer Ginny Klevorn unseat Sarah Anderson, a longtime state rep who had withstood tough elections for Republicans in the past.
Outside groups spent more than half a million in the race: $304,000 to help Anderson and $255,000 to help Klevorn.
Not far behind and with similar dynamics was the race in 56B between Republican incumbent Roz Peterson and DFLer Alice Mann. Outside groups spent $305,000 to help Peterson and $204,000 to help Mann.
Eight other suburban districts round out the top 10 spending in terms of outside money.
The Senate special
Democrats outspent Republicans by two-to-one in the high-stakes Election Day special election in Senate District 13. The seat was vacated by Michelle Fischbach when she became lieutenant governor, leaving each party with 33 members in the Senate. Republican Jeff Howe won big there, leading DFLer Joe Perske by a 15-point margin, keeping the Senate in Republican hands.
The big spenders
As is often the case, the DFL-allied Alliance for a Better Minnesota Action Fund was the biggest source of independent expenditures in the election, with nearly $8.5 million spent across races.
Democrats, who typically funnel a larger share of outside spending though party-affiliated committees, spent considerable amounts through its DFL State Central Committee and other party-aligned groups.
Minnesota’s Republican Party relies less on party-affiliated groups (though its House Republican Campaign Committee was one of the big spenders this time around), and more on non-party-affiliated outside spending groups, such as the Minnesota Jobs Coalition (again, yet to file its year-end report), and the Freedom Club State PAC.