Thanks to coronavirus, the 2020 presidential election process, both nationally and in Minnesota, is frozen in place. What are Joe Biden’s prospects against President Trump at present? Answering that involves a daunting list of uncertainties.
The main ambiguities: How long will the current virus impasse afflict the campaign? How will that affect the remainder of our presidential selection process?
Two related uncertainties arise from our current deep freeze. Will the parties actually conduct their national conventions as in the past – or virtually? Will voting occur as it has traditionally in the past?
Right now, it’s far from clear how those conventions will transpire. U.S. House Democrats are now proposing new national laws permitting voting by mail in all states this November. Will that come to pass?
Four problems afflict Biden campaign
Four major problems afflict Biden’s campaign in this unprecedented situation.
First, his fundraising has lagged behind Trump’s. When the candidate can’t raise funds in person, the cash flow dwindles. Trump’s campaign and related committees have since 2017 raised a record $677 million with at least $240 million cash for his campaign. Though Biden so far has raised $68 million in February and March, he remains far behind Trump in total funds raised and cash on hand. Can Biden be financially competitive in the fall?
[image_caption]Steven Schier[/image_caption]
Third, the awkward situation puts a spotlight on questions about 77-year-old Biden’s campaign and governing abilities. His recent conduct has received media second guessing and thorough coverage of any perceived gaffes.
Fourth, Tara Read, a former staff assistant in Biden’s Senate office, on April 9 filed a criminal complaint with the District of Columbia police accusing Biden of sexually assaulting her during her time working for him in 1993.
Not all is bleak for Biden, though. He may gain momentum by his choice of a running mate.
Running mate considerations
Minnesota’s Senator Amy Klobuchar may well appeal to voters in the vital swing states – in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and perhaps even Pennsylvania. Michigan’s Gov. Gretchen Whitmer may help the ticket in similar ways. The two are considered strong finalists for his VP nod.
Minnesota ranks as a major battleground state because of Trump’s strong showing in 2016, losing the state to Hillary Clinton by only 1.5 percent despite his devoting few campaign resources to Minnesota.
The Trump campaign has ranked Minnesota as a top target in 2020 and plans to deploy unprecedented GOP campaign resources in the state. Democrats counter with one of the best managed and resourced state parties in the nation, markedly outdistancing the Minnesota GOP in these regards. Add Klobuchar to the ticket and Trump faces an uphill effort in the state.
Some uncertainties could help Biden
It may also be the case that some of the aforementioned uncertainties will help Biden’s campaign. President Trump is under a daily hostile media microscope as he wades through the crisis. Biden’s lengthy Washington experience may seem a safe harbor to many voters by November, given the many problems created by the coronavirus shutdown of the economy and society.
The initial uptick in Trump’s job and crisis management approval seems to be dissipating as the public’s latent partisan polarization begins to resurface. The national polls show a tight race with a narrow Biden lead, despite this curious virus-induced pause in the action. That is the best news Biden has received since the virus shutdown began.
For Joe Biden, the glass is both half full and half empty – for now.
Steven Schier is Congdon Professor of Political Science Emeritus at Carleton College in Northfield.
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Meanwhile, Bernie’s timely op eds and public announcements offer clear and compelling reasons to look now at the bare truth of our healthcare system, of the debt and minimal savings among workers and the complete incompetence of the President.
His most recent NYTimes : “The Foundations of American Society Are Failing Us”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/opinion/coronavirus-inequality-bernie-sanders.html
Joe needs to learn how to do what Bernie is doing.
Get up and get relevant!
Credit to Joe Biden: He has called for mail-in paper ballots.
Let’s get one a day.
There is much truth to tell that does not hurt the medical efforts.
We need to address the climate and the future of our planet.
The youth need a big lift ASAP.
Well there are times when your opponent just keeps digging that hole for themselves, don’t get in their way! .Curious if folks know how much $ were spent over the last 2 years going through the primaries? We also know that ~ 10-15% of the electorate is all that is up for grabs right now, suspect 80% or more have already made up their minds.
And Trump began digging early and digging often.
He has very few actual election specific accomplishments since 2016 and lots of losses:
The 2017 VA Governor’s race was the biggest D margin in almost 40 years.
2018 Mid terms: we all know what happened there.
2019 Kentucky Governor flips R to D
2020 WI Supreme Court.
No time for Biden to show any HRC like complacency, but all recent indicators should be viewed favorably by Biden and concern for Trump.
It surprises me a little to see a political scientist describe MN as a major battleground state based on the 2016 election.
I think it’s critical to recall the fact that Trump didn’t so well in MN as HRC performed soooo badly. HRC was an historically unpopular, disliked, and distrusted Democratic candidate. Biden isn’t nearly as unpopular and disliked. That election didn’t turn the state into a battleground, it just reflected the fact that Democrats had a bad candidate. If you pull HRC out of the lineup, you can see that almost not Republican comes close to winning a statewide contest in MN.
Paul is exactly correct & this analysis applies to other states as well, some of which barely went for Trump. The problem for this incumbent is his ceiling is not far from his floor; and now he’s running on his record. Meanwhile, the challenger only needs to outperform HRC by a point or two, i.e. a revesion to the mean for Dem turnout.
For me, two things will determine if I vote for Biden. First is whether he kowtows to the far left to get their vote. The second is who he picks as a running mate. I doubt the guy will make it through four years as President which means his running mate is likely be President. Bernie lost based on his policies. If Biden picks a leftist he is stabbing us moderates in the back.
Don’t you think he has to compromise? The majority of the Democratic electorate is moderate, but a significant percentage is further left. I’d like to see a balanced ticket.
For whom might you vote if Biden chooses a progressive running mate? Nobody? Trump? Protest vote?
Biden doesn’t need to be in the limelight right now. He will eventually put his foot in his mouth and that will only allow credence to Trumps’ meaningless messages. Which ends up enlivening his nonsensical base.
There’s every reason to believe that Biden will select a woman of color as his running mate. Congressman Jim Clyburn made his wishes clear in that respect, and Biden owes him one. Clyburn mentioned a California Congresswoman who used to be speaker of the California assembly; can’t remember the name. And there are others, Kamela Harris being one of the most prominent. There may be Latina women who’d be good. Before the primaries began, I suggested that a Biden/Harris ticket would be logical.
My bet too
“The initial uptick in Trump’s job and crisis management approval seems to be dissipating as the public’s latent partisan polarization begins to resurface.”
I’m sorry, Professor Schier, you’re an emeritus professor of political science, and this is how you describe the body politic that you see? There is no polarization in this nation. Two-thirds of the nation are a bell curve on a nominally democratic continuum, the opposite of polarization. One-third of the nation are authoritarian followers in a cult of nihilism that is off the continuum entirely because it has no link to democratic principles.
A few nominally democratic folks extended Trump a brief benefit of the doubt in order to “rally around the flag.” Trump’s next actions forfeited that support, as always. So we are back where we have been essentially every day of the Trump reign: those who disapprove always will disapprove, because Trump is plainly and irrevocably incompetent and malignant; those who approve will always approve, because they are in a cult. And those who disapprove are not “partisan,” unless it’s “partisan” to want to save human society from collapse.