One recent survey of Minnesotans reveals Gov. Tim Walz in decent shape for re-election but another poll identifies some issue opportunities for Republicans in their campaign against him.
The good news for Walz is evident in findings from a SurveyUSA poll conducted from Dec. 2-6 for KSTP-TV. The poll’s credibility level of responses for its 675 adults is plus or minus 2.9 percent, for its 591 registered voters plus or minus 4.7 percent and for its 506 likely voters plus or minus 5.1 percent. SurveyUSA’s methods receive an “A” grade from Nate Silver’s 538 analysis site. 538 has found no detectable bias toward Democrats and Republicans in the pollster’s surveys.
Among the 591 registered voters in the poll, Walz has a healthy 55 percent job approval. That is impressive given the recent years of tumult in the state due to the pandemic, an uncertain economy and the death of George Floyd.
A closer look at Walz’s job approval uncovers several pillars of strength in his public backing. First, the midterm elections of 2022 will feature a smaller and older electorate than emerges in presidential years. Among registered voters over age 50, Walz’s job approval is a lofty 58 percent. This is a key Walz strength among an important group of likely voters.
Second, the many voters in Twin Cities suburbs often guide the direction of state politics. These voters are as a group not consistently Democratic or Republican in their voting and how they trend usually dictates a statewide electoral result. Walz has a healthy 60 percent job approval among suburban registered voters. That level of support from them on Election Day 2022 virtually ensures his second term in the governor’s mansion.
A third source of strength for Walz is his support in southern Minnesota, location of his former 1st Congressional District seat. Among registered voters in that region, his job approval is a whopping 68 percent, even higher than his 56 percent approval in the Twin Cities. This result may be exaggerated due to polling error — there are only 106 respondents from southern Minnesota in this sample of registered voters — but it does suggest outstate support for Walz that will be a problem for his 2022 GOP rival.
Fourth, the governor’s handling of the coronavirus has earned public backing. Among registered voters, 55 percent approve of his handling of this issue. Further, the survey shows that most Minnesotans are firmly in support of vaccination. Of the 675 adults in the survey, 76 percent claim to be vaccinated. Further, 54 percent of adults in the poll support President Biden’s mandatory vaccination or testing policy for all employees in firms hiring at least one hundred workers.
[image_caption]Steven Schier[/image_caption]
One can find a bit of good news for Republicans in this and another recent survey. SurveyUSA found that among likely voters, Walz receives less percentage support — 47 or 48 percent — in match races with current GOP gubernatorial candidates than was evident in his 55 percent job approval among the broader group of registered voters.
A recent survey from the conservative Center of the American Experiment also uncovered an issue opportunity for the GOP. Meeting Street Insights, a firm rating “B/C” from 538 and showing a slight +.07 percent Democratic bias in its surveys, conducted this survey of 500 Minnesotans from Nov. 30 to Dec. 2, yielding a credibility level of plus or minus 4.38 percent.
When told “the state will likely have the largest budget surplus in state history” respondents were then asked, “How should the 2022 state Legislature use the state surplus?” Sixty seven percent opted for more fiscally conservative options — 24 percent for personal tax cuts, 21 percent for paying off state debt, 12 percent for one-time tax rebates and 10 percent for paying cash rather than borrowing for state projects. Only 28 percent favored “greater investment in government programs such as education and welfare.”
Republicans thus may make progress against the governor with fiscally conservative arguments. But they have a big task before them. SurveyUSA has revealed that a majority of the state’s registered voters approve of Walz’s job performance. He at present is faring well for reelection despite difficult and uncertain times.
Steven Schier is the emeritus Congdon Professor of Political Science at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota.
The GOP MN gubernatorial campaign message:
“Look at what did not work for all the Republican governors during COVID: We’ll do the same next time: half the restrictions, twice the deaths”
And with a Governor like Scott Jensen there will be a next time.
Walz was in control when Minneapolis burned down, Minnesota leads the nation in LTC COViD deaths due to mandates to return sick patients back to the facility, our largest school district has graduates who can’t read, write or do math efficiently, Twin Cities are experiencing a crime spree, outstate meth problem just keeps on getting worse, our taxes are too high. How hard can it be to run against that!
Putting aside that most of that is nonsense, Republicans would have to actually have solutions. Covid lies and denialism play well in rural areas, but its not a winning strategy in a statewide race where a strong majority of people are vaccinated. The Republican candidates are all clowns.
Pat, I didn’t even hook Walz to National issues crushing the Democratic Party. Add in gas prices, when Americans look at a party asking OPEC and Russia to “please pump more oil for us” instead of getting it right here in USA, they shake their heads. USA has new record (Dems have that going for them) in producer price inflation at 9.6%. Afghanistan disaster, enough said. Border is totally out of control. Dems 100% behind the failing public schools system, look at Virginia. The list of National issues goes on and on. Those hurt Democrats as badly as local issues when folks go to the polls.
Again, in the real world, people don’t subscribe to that kind of nonsense. Walz should clean up against the clowns running against him.
Pat, are you actually saying Minnesotans and USA citizens do not care about gas prices? You don’t think when producers of goods have a 9.6% increase in their costs, the American public doesn’t understand what comes next? You think Americans are oblivious to a border under siege? You don’t think folks see and feel run away inflation? What are Minnesotans and USA citizens concerned with? Wow!
No, I am saying that only people who have no idea how anything works would blame the governor or even the president for gas prices. I am saying that only people who are hooked on Fox News care about absurd claims about the border. All the things you are ranting about are meaningless in the political considerations of most people.
This past September I paid $3.48 for a gallon of gas. Yesterday I paid $3.48 for a gallon of gas. I’ll do the math for you, it’s the same, no increase here, so your claim about rising gas prices is just a lie.
Geez, gas was 50 cents cheaper this morning, I hope you try that.
“How hard can it be to run against that!”
Apparently pretty hard based on Walz approval ratings.
Unfortunately for the opposition and fortunately for Walz, at some point you need to be for something and not just against whatever the other guy is for. DJT kind of ran the well dry on tax cuts leaving little meat on the bone on the “I’m for this!” agenda.
And if you want to place the blame for George Floyd unrest squarely on someone’s shoulders other than Derek Chauvin that person is Trump supporting, butt kicking Bob Kroll, who more than anyone else is responsible for the mess that is the MPD. Chauvin’s behavior is exhibit 1 for Kroll’s “warrior trained union membership” legacy.
Are you serious? Have you not seen what the Republican Party of Minnesota has turned itself into?
If history is any predictor, the Republicans will choose their nominee from a group of ranting hard-right wingers. Their choice will be based entirely on their positions on social issues, viz. guns and abortion. While the nominee will pay lip service to economic issues (“I’m pro-business!”), the thrust of his campaign will be those wedge issues because that’s what the base wants to hear.
The campaign will ignore the cities (the state’s population centers) except when the candidate speaks to outstate crowds and wants to reinforce their pre-existing notions about the Cities of the Plain. It is doubtful that he will attempt top engage any urban voters any more closely than at a Chamber of Commerce luncheon, but if he does, his appearance will be, at best, fleeting.
The candidate will try to deflect attention from national issues, but may want to bring up “voter fraud,” despite the fact that is not a winning issue in this state. If he’s lucky, he will get The Blessing of Trump to further excite the base.
Tell me how that’s a winning strategy.
Well right there is your answer. How hard is it to run against it? With this batch of Republicans pretty hard. They continue to go off the rails and to the extremes. Waltz, for all his faults, does manage to steady the ship. The nursing home deaths were largely based on lousy advice from the feds, no state can say they have managing covid down, and people tend to overlook the high taxes with the surplus. Many wish Waltz would focus more on crime, for starters he could use the surplus for more state troopers at least and there is the endless mess at DHS and lots of window dressing. Yet despite that, Republicans tend to have more zanies in leadership roles than the Democrats, although at times it is a tough call.
Frankly, it’s not hard at all to run against that. But it’s really beside the point. The problem is that it’s hard for a Republican gubernatorial candidate to win…..period.
From my perspective, the Republicans’ real problem is easy to define. They never ask me to vote FOR them. Instead, they always tell me to vote AGAINST Democrats. They don’t really want my vote, and, in a sense, they don’t even expect it. They simply assume that it’s theirs to demand, and they demand that I give it to them. In that sense, they seem far too regimented and in lockstep. They are absolutely intolerant of anyone and anything that isn’t rock-solid Republican. And I simply refuse to be ordered around.
Gazelka and a bunch of other Republicans are carrying guns into our Capital buildings. They are afraid of the boogeymen but not worried about Covid-19. They scream about peoples’ rights in not wearing masks or not getting vaccinated.
Five of these Republicans running for governor have already had Covid-19 but remain opposed to any vaccination mandates. Jensen, who is a physician, and Murphy still have not been vaccinated. Gazelka and Shah didn’t get vaccinated until after contracting Covid-19. Shah also took ivermectin, a drug used to deworm horses.
I wonder what the Minnesota death toll would have been if one of these Republicans had been at the helm. It would be regrettable if Governor Walz loses politically after demonstrating actual leadership. We were lucky that we had a governor in there with common sense during this pandemic.
The best thing Walz has going for himself is the complete lack of serious competition from the GQP candidates. They couldn’t even beat Mark Dayton in the wave year of 2010; just let that sink in. For Pete’s sake, they can’t even manage a decent candidate for Attorney General.
And given they had frequent majorities in the House and Senate for much of the last decade, it’s not like they don’t have a farm team.
Their best bet is to find some outsider with very little political identity to enter the primary with tons of money sown into his down jacket. A Jesse Ventura type from the Bothsidesism Party. The circus, not having left the tent, can reinvent itself.
Interesting that 76% of registered voters want more security at the border according to Rasmussen polling. 83% of people are concerned about gas prices. 64% of Americans feel Afghanistan was a disaster. 79% of regular folks are concerned about run away inflation. I doubt all these people are Fox News viewers. Please someone here at Minnpost show me a poll where Americans or Minnesotans are happy with border, inflation, gas prices, BBB plan, school curriculum or Biden’s job. Add in Minnesota leading USA in LTC COViD deaths, a burnt out Mpls (with little to no build back in site) and a crime spree out of control under Walz…. How hard can it be to beat that?
Joe:
These are the same Fox News talking points that you floated yesterday. Readers should scroll up to see how Pat Terry and many other readers debunked them. Nothing has changed in the last 24 hours.
A Rasmussen poll. I think that pretty much speaks for itself.
I would say that, overall, the public is happy with most of the BBB agenda, but I have no illusoins that you would believe any evidence showing that.
And how hard can it be to understand that this potpourri of (supposedly outrageous) national issues isn’t going to much factor into the decision to re-elect Walz or not?
I might be willing to grant that if the national election in 2022 were held today, the Dem Congress would be in trouble. Not for any rational reason, but mainly because of (1) the nationwide gerrymandering efforts of the Repub party, (2) the Rightwing Noise Machine so beloved by you, and (3) the generally silly, uninformed thinking of most Americans on such things as gas prices and economic issues, which lead them to vote for the party “out of power” no matter what.
Apparently even if that party is quasi-fascist and hasn’t the slightest idea of how to address any of the problems they and their Noise Machine are ranting and raving about.
Even assuming all of those numbers are true, most people have some understanding of why these things are issues. Only someone with absolutely zero understanding would blame Biden (much less Walz) for gas prices. I know some people who are upset about the border feel that way because Biden hasn’t fixed Trump’s mess yet. Trump was a failure at being president, just like he was a failure at everything else in his life, and it will take some time to fix it.
Add BBB going down the drain to the list of why Democrats are in big trouble in the next election. When your signature legislation goes the way of the dinosaur before you vote on it, not a good sign for leadership.
Once again, Joe, Walz is most likely not going to be yoked to national issues such as “BBB”, whatever may happen with it.
On the other hand, as I read about new estimates that vaccination likely prevented one million[!] Covid-19 deaths in the US, I have to wonder how that will affect the public’s reception of “conservative” anti-vax performance artists such as Dr. Jenson, a purported MD….
The reason Walz will win was very apparent in the recent 5 person GOP Governor’s debate where not one of them would actually clearly say Biden won the 2020 election. Even after being asked twice.
https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/at-gop-gubernatorial-debate-all-5-candidates-suggest-bidens-win-wasnt-legitimate
Biden won by 6 in Minnesota. We have 2 D Senators and these 5 think catering to the Trumpian fringe is the key to electoral victory. They won’t be able to walk this back and will mealy mouth it till one loses to Walz on election night.
The only R hope is to nominate a candidate with some mainstream appeal and there are none even running so far.
I think hammering Walz for the increasing lawlessness, and lack of consequences for said lawlessness, would be a winning issue. His sentencing board would like to change the guidelines for repeat offenders in same very scary ways.
“His sentencing board would like to change the guidelines for repeat offenders in same very scary ways.”
I went and read it:
https://mn.gov/sentencing-guidelines/guidelines/currentguidelines.jsp
Please tell us the specifics of what you find so very scary.
The American right is usually long on hyperbole and short on specifics.
But there is no doubt that “increased lawlessness” will be the main argument of whatever Repub emerges from the MN fever swamp. That and “CRT” panic.
What else do they have? Literally nothing.