The year 2022 was a consequential political year in Minnesota, determining the fate of political parties, candidates, causes and moneyed interests. Here is an accounting of those various fates.
Winners
At the top of winners’ list resides Gov. Tim Walz. After a trying and tumultuous first term, he secured a comfortable election victory and Democratic control of the state legislature for the first time since the 2012 elections. Now he has a large say in allocating the state’s epic budget surplus among voters and friendly political interests. His box of goodies now overflows.
Alongside the governor on the list is DFL party Chair Ken Martin. Now in his sixth term and facing a possible 2022 red wave, he nevertheless guided his party to victories in all statewide races, keeping that streak alive during his chairmanship which began in 2011. A new DFL-controlled state legislature is another feather in Martin’s cap.
Minnesota’s two “pot parties” – the Legal Marijuana Now Party and the Grassroots Legalize Cannabis Party – are such big winners they may soon cease to exist. DFL control of state government means legalization is highly likely to occur. Democrats will set aside public safety and health concerns in their ardent desire to add stoners to their electoral coalition.
Out of state money – gushers of it – proved decisive in state elections. Most of this came to the DFL via direct contributions and independent expenditures. It helps to have a Rockefeller as an ex-spouse of a DFL governor. The Alliance for a Better Minnesota, with its ubiquitous abortion ads aimed at hapless GOP governor candidate Scott Jensen, proved particularly influential.
The Republican winners are few in number. Rep. Brad Finstad seems to have transformed the First Congressional District into a pretty secure GOP seat. Rep. Tom Emmer, R-6th, as head of the National Republican Congressional Committee saw his predicted red wave nationally turn into a trickle. He won the House Republican Whip position by a one vote margin – and that decisive vote was cast for him by mistake. I guess that counts as a win.
Survivors
David Hann survives as GOP chair despite a thorough electoral trouncing of his party. He was, however, chair for only a few months before the election and any repairs of his party will take years. He survives to pursue that mammoth task.
Rep. Angie Craig, D-2nd, survived by just above a five% margin in her highly competitive U.S. House race in the Second District. It remains a swing district, however, likely to draw quality GOP challengers in the future. More hard-fought campaigns are likely for her.
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison and State Auditor Julie Blaha squeaked out victories statewide and, like Craig, will likely draw quality challengers in four years.
Republican State Rep. Lisa Demuth (Cold Spring) and State Sen. Mark Johnson (East Grand Forks) survived the election and now will serve as minority leaders in their chambers. Can they be more than bystanders and onlookers in the DFL controlled legislature?
Back from a near-death experience is Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman. Supposedly locked in a tight reelection contest, she cruised to victory with just over 62% of the vote and saw her State House majority hold with 70 Democrats and 64 Republicans. She survives to rule the State House another day.
Losers
This is a long list, heavily populated with Republicans. One notable DFL loser, however, is retiring State House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler, who gave up his seat for an unsuccessful bid for Hennepin County Attorney.
The entire GOP slate of candidates for statewide offices went down to defeat, blowing the party’s best statewide opportunity in years. Urban uprisings, a pandemic, record inflation, scandals involving state spending offered them big electoral prospects. None of the candidates were able to make the sale. It’s true that they were all heavily outspent, so the bigger loser in those results may be the state party which could not match DFL resources.
Kurt Daudt saw his hopes for the speakership of a GOP ruled that House disappear, and after the election, was no longer House Minority Leader. Sen. Paul Gazelka gave up his seat as Senate Majority Leader to run for governor and lost his party’s endorsement.
[image_caption]Steven Schier[/image_caption]
After 2022, what is Minnesota’s partisan future? With the state GOP becoming less electorally competitive, DFL rule may become the default condition of Minnesota party politics. The state’s partisan balance may increasingly resemble that of states like Washington and Oregon. Those states vote routinely blue in elections, with GOP victories confined to the most rural parts of the states. The actions of the state GOP since the Pawlenty governorship have moved the North Star State very much in this direction.
Steven Schier is the emeritus Congdon professor of Political Science at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct Sen. Mark Johnson’s name and the number of seats held by each party in the Minnesota House once the session convenes.
“One major author of the GOP’s 2022 electoral disaster was Lexington, Minnesota Mayor Mike Murphy. At the party’s state convention he defamed gubernatorial nomination rival Kendall Qualls as a liar and endorsed Scott Jensen, sealing the party’s fate in the 2022 elections. One wonders if he was secretly on the DFL’s payroll.”
Election Night – and a subsequent automatic recount – proved Mayor Murphy was truly a big loser of 2022: Nonpartisan Mike Murphy 372 49.27%
Nonpartisan Gary Grote 380 50.33%
WRITE-IN WRITE-IN 3 0.40%
“Minnesota DFL”: For those who may not be old enough to remember Hubert Humphrey, “DFL” is an acronym for “Democratic-Farmer-Labor”, which hasn’t been true about the Democratic Party in Minnesota for at least 20 years – and I doubt that the Democrats efforts to legalize marijuana (how many acres for what economic benefit?) or the barriers they have put in place for mining in northern Minnesota (in spite of then need of these minerals for their desire to increase EV use) will change anything in the near future.
“Democrats will set aside public safety and health concerns in their ardent desire to add stoners to their electoral coalition.”
This is a rather biased summary of the issue, though perhaps intended tongue-in-cheek.
From a public health & social justice standpoint, pot decriminalization is a no-brainer. Instead we need to prioritize eliminating the scourge of opiates.
So, will Ellison and Blaha draw significant challengers? Or just GOPers?
It’s hard to imagine a better environment than the GOP has this year.
Its a mental struggle, the typical Republican in my humble opinion is so far right I can’t relate, anti-women, women’s choice, anti-science, anti medical science, anti Psychological science, anti government, anti-logic, anti-statistics etc. etc. etc. The Democrats got their own issues, everyone deserves a hand out for one reason or another, seems that its all about the rights, but never about responsibilities. Folks are almost never responsible for their personal situations, and lets use the governemnt to bail them out regardless the circumstances. Sure do miss the Arne Carlson types, logical, common sense, fiscal, community, responsibility coupled with social independence. I think that would have made me a solid conservative 30 years ago, makes me a right wing leftist today.
“Sure do miss the Arne Carlson types, logical, common sense, fiscal, community, responsibility coupled with social independence.”
They traded policy debates & reasonable compromise for rallying the base. ‘Owning’ the libs is more important than enacting legislation. The current GOP is a joke.
And its not a funny or even a cute joke, sad at best.