Voters preparing to cast presidential primary ballots at a polling station in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Jan. 23.
Voters preparing to cast presidential primary ballots at a polling station in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Jan. 23. Credit: Kyodo

President Lyndon Johnson won the New Hampshire primary in 1968 by about 10 points – and promptly withdrew from the race. His narrow victory was widely interpreted as a loss. Interestingly, former President Donald Trump’s margin of victory earlier this month was about the same as LBJ’s, but no one is expecting him to withdraw from the race.

Unlike Johnson in 1968, Trump will benefit from Republican primary electorates in upcoming states that are decidedly more conservative than New Hampshire. Trump won Republican voters who identify as conservatives by a wide margin. He lost to moderate Republicans and independents, but those center-right voters are scarce in upcoming Republican primary states. It seems likely that Trump will be the nominee.

Yet Trump’s relatively narrow victory reveals some vulnerabilities. Since 1952, five incumbent presidents received less than 60% in the New Hampshire primary, similar to Trump’s total. All of them — Truman, LBJ, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush — either withdrew from the race or lost the November election. Seven of eight incumbent presidents who got over 60% in the New Hampshire primary went on to win the November election.

Less decisive victories reveal a president who is unable to unify their party. George H.W. Bush won 57% of the 1992 New Hampshire primary vote against Pat Buchanan — forerunner of Trump — who won about 40%. Bush was unable to bring the party together and lost to Bill Clinton in the fall. Similarly, Jimmy Carter defeated Ted Kennedy by about 10 points and then lost the fall election.

Successful Republican presidents unite the so-called Republican establishment with social conservatives or the more populist wing of the party. Richard Nixon’s “southern strategy” won over former supporters of George Wallace on the way to a November landslide. Ronald Reagan’s embrace of Christian conservatives was similarly successful and he won without alienating Wall Street Republicans who formed the core of the Republican establishment. More recent Republican presidential candidates like John McCain and Mitt Romney have struggled to build the diverse coalitions led by Nixon and Reagan.

Trump won in 2016 by shunning the Republican establishment as he advocated a starkly anti-immigrant agenda and opposition to free trade. Earlier Republicans like George W. Bush and Romney took opposite positions on those issues. Once in office, Trump ironically had more success in passing the core policies of the Republican establishment: a deep tax cut tilted toward the wealthy and reductions in regulation. This helped him retain the support of Republicans like Mitch McConnell.

Dan Hofrenning
[image_caption]Dan Hofrenning[/image_caption]
Yet Trump’s coalition seems tenuous. Compared to 2016, Trump’s support among conservative Republicans has grown, but it has fallen among moderate and independent Republicans. That dynamic enabled Nikki Haley to get close to Trump in New Hampshire. The increasingly conservative Republican primary electorate should frustrate her efforts to catch Trump. Yet the fact that she is close reveals the vulnerabilities of Trump and the Republican Party.

The conservative primary electorate may choose a candidate less able to win in November. With Trump as its leader, the Republican Party has suffered election losses in 2018, 2020 and 2022. That record shows Trump’s inability to unify different parts of the Republican Party. Together with Biden’s wide victory in the New Hampshire primary, the tides seem to be favorable for Democrats. Yet many things will happen before November.

Dan Hofrenning is professor of political science at St. Olaf College. He spent the January term with 16 students working in and studying the New Hampshire primary.