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Minnesota’s most competitive House districts

Since the 2012 election, the DFL has controlled the Minnesota House and Senate, as well as the governor’s mansion. Republicans will be working hard this election season to win back the House (the Senate is not up for re-election this cycle). Currently, the DFL controls 73 of 134 House seats, so Republicans need to net seven seats in November to win back control. Which seats make the likeliest targets for the GOP?

The chart below estimates the political leanings of each of Minnesota’s 134 House districts (more on our method here). Boxes colored blue lean toward the DFL, red toward Republicans, and the lighter the box the more competitive the race is likely to be. To find out more information on each race — including names of candidates, a map of the district, the exactly lean of the district, and the results from the 2012 election —  click on an individual box.

Comments (1)

  1. Submitted by Josh Ondich on 09/10/2014 - 06:16 pm.

    The Partisan Value Index

    The PVI is based on which party candidate’s or incumbents have one by how much precentage in previous elections. The PVI only favors the incument’s party in the upcoming election. An example could be. If the PVI was applied to president elections. It would of predicted a R+17.4% for the 1932 Presidential Election becuase Republican Hebert Hoover won the Presidential Election in 1928 by a popular vote margin of 17.4%?. The PVI does not factor in the possiblity of upsets or change in the climate of a race that could occur within the final week or months before the election. The PVI gives you an idea of an possible election outcome, but the PVI should not assume an automatic win for the favored party or incument. I just find the PVI ratings an fascinating method to predict election outcomes.

    Josh D. Ondich
    Prior Lake, MN

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