WASHINGTON — Rep. Michele Bachmann holds a nine-point lead over DFL challenger Tarryl Clark in poll out today. However, Bachmann’s support dropped from the last survey, falling under the critical 50 percent threshhold.
Bachmann leads Clark 48-39 in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, first announced on Twitter by KSTP’s Tom Hauser. The margin of error was 4.2 percent.
It’s KSTP’s poll, so I’ll refer you there for more details..
It’s the sort of survey both Bachmann and Clark will take some solace from. For the incumbent, a lead’s a lead, and she’s up nine. Bachmann won her last contest with 46.4 percent of the vote, and her first with 50 percent, so this level of popularity is within her past winning totals.
For Clark, her mission is to close the gap. Getting Bachmann under 50 percent is a big move (meaning a majority of the voters either don’t want Bachmann or aren’t sure) and nine points is a margin that can certainly be overcome in the next four months.
Either way, this is a poll that will only increase the fundraising appeals in one of the most expensive races in the country so far.
To put this in perspective, an incumbent elected official who can’t get 50 percent of the poll is vulnerable.
“For Clark, her mission is to close the gap. Getting Bachmann under 50 percent is a big move …”
That’s not a very good analysis. Its major flaw is that it fails to account for the fact that the first poll (Public Policy Polling ) surveyed a hypothetical head-to-head contest between Bachmann and Clark, whereas the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll offered respondents a choice among all four candidates on the November ballot.
Here’s a comparison of the two sets of poll results. If the table layout makes interpretation difficult, go to http://www.immelman.us/news/mn-6-poll-bachmann-approval-53/ and scroll down to see the original table.
Public Policy Polling (Dec. 17-20, 2009)
Bachmann 55
Clark 37
Undecided 8
KSTP/SurveyUSA (July 9-11, 2010)
Bachmann 48 (-7)
Clark 39 (+2)
Anderson 6
Immelman 2
Undecided 5 (-3)
Bachmann shed 7 percentage points since the first poll. That can be accounted for by the combined 8 points in the second poll for IP candidate Bob Anderson and independent former Republican Aubrey Immelman, two conservative candidates whose names did not appear on the first survey.
In addition, Clark’s 2-point gain since the first poll comports with the 3-point reduction in the Undecided column. It’s plausible that Clark’s active campaigning and improved name recognition since the first poll accounts for the reduction in undecided voters.