WASHINGTON – If Republicans win the U.S. House and Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer, R-6th, wins re-election in November – both very real possibilities – he will face a much tougher election weeks later.
That second election involves a vote by his GOP colleagues that will determine whether Emmer, now the head of the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), fulfills his ambition to rise up the House leadership ranks and become the new majority whip.
The whip is responsible for counting heads and rounding up party members for votes. As the No. 3 person in the Republican leadership, Emmer would occasionally stand in for the majority leader and be involved in day-to-day decisions.
The leadership elections will take place during freshman orientation, a post-election event that’s held so members from both parties can learn the ropes, participate in a lottery for their Capitol Hill offices and begin hiring staff. Although those new members won’t be sworn in until January, they can cast votes for the leaders of their parties during their orientation, which is expected to take place before Thanksgiving.
Emmer, 61, who has represented a district that includes St. Cloud and many Twin Cities suburbs, declined to be interviewed for this story. Until recently, he’s been inscrutable about his plans. But, with potential rivals for the whip job – including Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-New York, and Jim Banks, R-Indiana – canvassing colleagues for support, Emmer has finally indicated he plans to seek the leadership job.
“Chairman Emmer is focused on winning in November,” NRCC Communications Director Michael McAdams said in a statement. “He’s asked his colleagues for the opportunity to make an argument for majority whip once Republicans retake the House and fire Nancy Pelosi.”
If Pelosi is indeed “fired” as Speaker of the House, Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-California, plans to go for her old job. The current House GOP whip, Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, also wants a to climb the leadership ladder, to House Majority Leader, leaving that whip position vacant.
There’s an expectation that Emmer, who has headed the House GOP’s campaign arm since 2018, will be rewarded with some kind of promotion if the Republicans seize the House in the fall – something most political analysts say is likely.
“If the Republicans do have a good night in the House, winning a decent-sized majority, Emmer will come out of the election looking good, which might be helpful in his leadership bid,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
The NRCC has targeted 75 Democratic seats in November’s midterm elections. Even if Republicans flip fewer than half of those seats, they will have the largest majority in the House in nearly a century. And to win the narrowly divided chamber, Republicans need only a net gain of five seats.
Earlier this month Emmer spoke about his recruitment of GOP candidates during a University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs event.
The congressman said he’s bucked the trend of recruiting wealthy candidates who self-fund their campaigns because “they are tough to manage,” preferring instead to ask Republicans in state congressional delegations who he should recruit to challenge Democrats.
That, Emmer said, has resulted in a very diverse field of Republican candidates, with “a record number” of women and people of color.
“It’s something I’m extremely proud of,” Emmer said.
As NRCC chief, Emmer has raised and spent millions of dollars to help GOP House candidates, both challengers targeting vulnerable Democrats and Republican incumbents in tough races.
He’s also donated more than $500,000 out of his leadership political action committee, Electing Majority-Making Effective Republicans (EMMER) to the campaigns of GOP candidates, as well as making dozens of contributions to Republican candidates from his personal campaign account.
University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs said Republicans are “almost certainly” going to win the House majority and Emmer should get “outsized credit” for that. Jacobs also said winning candidates Emmer has helped should show him loyalty when they vote for their party’s leaders.
“Leadership elections are hard to handicap,” he said. “But my own personal view is that he will win the leadership contest.”
Emmer’s rivals
An attorney and former member of the state Legislature, Emmer has represented Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District since 2015.
An ardent conservative, he’s from a slightly different mold than his rivals for the whip position.
Stefanik, elected in 2014 as a moderate, staunchly defended former President Trump during his first impeachment proceedings in 2019, prompting Trump to declare that “a star is born.”
Stefanik has fervently supported Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. More recently, she has excoriated the FBI for serving a warrant on Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida resort, an act she called an “unprecedented threat to democracy” in a fundraising appeal for the former president’s legal defense fund.
In May, Stefanik became the House GOP conference chair, after Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming, was ousted from the job for voting in favor of Trump’s second impeachment. Stefanik argued she merited the job because a woman should belong in the top ranks of the GOP House leadership, an argument she’s expected to repeat as she campaigns for whip.
Elected in 2016, Banks is the leader of the influential Republican Study Committee, a caucus of conservatives in the House that counts Emmer, as well as fellow Minnesotans Reps. Michelle Fischbach, R-7th, and Pete Stauber, R-8th, among its members.
Like Stefanik, Banks is an outspoken defender of Trump. And like Stefanik, on Jan. 6 Banks voted against certifying the results of the 2020 election.
Meanwhile, Emmer voted to certify that election and, while he’s been supportive of Trump, he’s largely stayed away from controversies involving the former president, instead preferring to fundraise and hone GOP messaging that blames Democrats for crime and inflation.
Jacobs said that during his political career, Emmer has “gone from a disrupter” and “renegade” to “someone who can hold together the GOP caucus.”
Emmer has been able to work with Democrats on legislation, including Attorney General Keith Ellison when the state’s top attorney was in Congress. Emmer also promotes bipartisan bills on mental health and recently crossed party lines to vote for a Democratic bill that would protect same-sex marriage.
As far as the impact on Minnesota if Emmer continues to climb the GOP ranks?
“It’s good for Minnesota because it gives us a voice,” Jacobs said. “We would have more influence, and that’s a good thing.”
I am troubled by politicians such as repub Emmer who initially was willing to vote in congress against Biden’s win, who has refused to hold accountable the Big Lie, refused to criticize or want to hold accountable the violent coup attempt enabled by trump.
He also voted against the bill to help with global warming, as our planet cooks. He voted against the bill to allow Medicare to negotiate with pharmaceuticals over their pricing, also voting to throw out a guarantee to keep insulin at $35, protecting the pharmaceuticals. He even voted against preserving a right to buy contraceptives.
This is not a representative who supports our democracy. He supports only the wealthiest without a concern for working people. We do not need these types of reps. We need people who care for us…who value a viable democracy.
With one exception, the people who vote for Emmer don’t want him to do anything. They want him to stop things. They want him to vote agin’ the following: programs to bring them broad band internet, increasing their FREEDOM and LIBERTY to organize for higher wages, improving access to health insurance, to increase their FREEDOM & LIBERTY to have all of their votes counted, to provide care for our brave veterans and their families, and acting to reduce climate change.
Although there is one thing they do want Emmer to do, and that is to, as one Trumper admitted to us, “Hurt the people he’s supposed to hurt”.
If Rep. Emmer wins the job he is seeking, will he be in a better position to deliver for his constituents and for Minnesota? What will it mean, exactly, for the people he represents in Congress? How will it change their lives for the better?
There are a lot of “ifs” in this presumption that the GOP will take the House. Now that the GOP is officially the party of racists, white supremacists, misogynists, and fascists their message is driving new voters to register and they sure aren’t registering as GOP. Their consistent attempt to “hone GOP messaging that blames Democrats for crime and inflation” will be thwarted because they are now messaging anti FBI and anti Justice Dept. rants because of the investigation into the criminal actions of their cult figure. Secondly, due to the measures that have passed including the Inflation Reduction Act with a clear path to help address climate change, the Dems have a positive message to build on. Point to one single thing that the GOP has championed and done for the benefit of the country – name one. You can’t. No, they want to suppress the vote, make sure that the only elections that count are the elections that they win based on suppressing the vote. I am looking forward to the Democrats retaining the House and increasing their numbers in the Senate in November. That should send a pretty good signal to the GOP that folks aren’t interested in the kind of message they want to hone and we certainly aren’t going to accept GOP fascism.
Tom Emmer is the perfect candidate for this new role!
Look at how neatly he fits the job requirements: must spout the party line, must NOT show the ability to reflect, must be oblivious to reality, must look good in an empty suit, must accept, through acquiescent silence, the delusion that Trump won the last election.
A parallel embrace of the Tooth Fairy and Santa Claus a big plus.
Go, Tom!
The wind is at the back of the House GOP. Most anyone with a pulse could lead them into the majority.
But sure, Mr. Jacobs, Emmer should get “outsized” credit.
Jacobs’ should get a high speed in the 2023 KFAN Common Man Preposterous Statement Tournament for this one.
The appropriate adage is “People rise to the level of their incompetence.” See also over achievers: Kevin McCarthy, Elise Stefanik.
Well there’s a horrifying thought: that republicans may take over the House this fall.
Tom Emmer claimed Trump actually won the 2020 election. He has long ago surrendered his backbone and brain. No facts … no truth … no shame … That sums up our congressman from the 6th District. He supports “The Big Lie!
It will be a disastrous day for the country should extremist Emmer win this coveted promotion in the terrible anti-democratic party he has helped to build.
Emmer is very rational compared to the outliers in both parties. Yes he has helped the GOP gain in the last election and in the upcoming. As Whip he will have an outsized reach on legislation. That will be very good for Minnesota, especially going into a presidential election. It will be a WIN-Win for Minnesota, the GOP and the House. Not so good for the DFL.
Emmer may have distanced himself from “controversies involving the former President”, forgotten in the article is the fact that Emmer was one of 106 House Republicans, and the only one from Minnesota, to sign on to the Texas lawsuit brought before the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to overturn Biden’s election to the Presidency.
The suit was filed Dec 10, 2020 with Emmer signing as a plaintiff. Thankfully, the Supreme Court rejected the claim. Emmer’s ambition to gain power guides his decision-making.