Prior to Tuesday night, the only real talk of “trifectas” in Minnesota state government had been from the GOP side – that Republican Scott Jensen could knock off incumbent DFL Gov. Tim Walz while the GOP also pulled off full control of the Legislature.
As the sleep-deprived fog of the 2022 Minnesota state election evaporates, it’s clear few had “DFL trifecta” in their office pool.
But that’s what happened, despite an election where historical trends, most of the main issues and polling were working against the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. The DFL grabbed control over the entirety of state government, including all three legs of the legislating stool. Walz will begin his second term in January with something he lacked in his first – DFL control of both the House and the Senate.
That hasn’t happened for a decade when DFLer Mark Dayton was governor.
And down ballot from Walz, Secretary of State Steve Simon easily won a third term and Attorney General Keith Ellison and Auditor Julie Blaha won second terms. The last two won with small margins, on either side of 1 percentage point, but by midday Wednesday Jim Schultz had conceded to Ellison and Ryan Wilson had done the same to Blaha.
While she was speaking specifically about the Senate DFL’s surprise victory, Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen may have summed up the storyline when she called it the “Minnesota Senate Miracle.”
Republicans had high hopes this election. In fact, one reason why Republican legislators cooled to the bipartisan budget agreement last May was a hope that if they waited, they wouldn’t need to get Walz and DFL agreement on taxes and spending.
That notion had mostly melted away as Jensen’s campaign failed to resonate with voters. But the GOP still seemed sure it would hold the state Senate and win the House again. Neither happened.
Divided government – the most-common feature of the last four years, something that drew some national attention to the state – will be no more.
That’s a big deal for Walz. Watching his agenda go nowhere in the GOP-controlled Senate? Worrying about whether his commissioners will be fired by the same body? Having to hash out last-minute bipartisan budget deals filled with compromise and missing many of his goals? None will mark his second term, at least until the 2024 state House elections.
That’s not to say that the DFL will pass all of its bills. House Speaker Melissa Hortman will still have a raucous caucus to manage, though with roughly the same margin over the GOP. Whoever is selected Thursday to lead the new Senate DFL Majority will have just a one-vote margin.
But when asked Wednesday which bills would they like to see surface that in the past hadn’t even received a hearing in the Senate, members of the new majority shouted their list in rapid succession.
“Price gouging.” “The PRO Act.” “Legalizing Marijuana.” “ERA.” “Paid family leave.” “Election reforms.” The PRO Act would codify legal protections for access to abortion. ERA references both a state equal rights act for women and ratification of a proposed federal constitutional amendment. Legal marijuana had gone nowhere among Senate Republicans.
Walz was asked whether trifecta had been in his thinking prior to Tuesday. He said his campaign’s internal polling showed that he was likely to win, but he was surprised at the sweep by his fellow DFL candidates.
“I thought there was an outside chance,” he said. “Candidly, I think things went better.” But he said he saw movement both in polling and in crowd size and enthusiasm on the campaign trail.
“I thought there was a possibility,” he said. “This is for all of us to digest; there was a flood of polls that proved to be radically off but they changed the national narrative that this was super close, that things were leaning this way.” The last state media poll had Walz and Simon leading but Ellison and Blaha trailing. National polls were suggesting that the suburbs were swinging to the GOP.
Walz said that could have caused some campaigns to change their strategy, but he said his campaign tried not to be distracted.
“But it was hard to tell in an individual House or Senate district how things were going to work,” Walz said.
The former congressman from Mankato said it is too soon to announce a second-term agenda, saying that will come after meetings with his commissioners and staff and consulting with House and Senate leadership. But he said the same issues he has pushed in the past will likely be back with his new-found allies in the Senate.
“Last night’s vote wasn’t just a pat on the back, it was a mission order going forward,” he said of voters. That includes protecting access to abortion, defending democracy, maintaining access to collective bargaining for unions and “more than anything, they believe in a hopeful vision for Minnesota.”
While there is currently a $12 billion surplus over the end of the current budget and two-year budget that starts next summer, that could change with the next official forecast due in early December. While tax collections remain above forecast, the state’s economic consultants are now expecting a recession in the coming calendar quarters.
Term one was marked by a pandemic and civil unrest following the murder of George Floyd. Term two could be different, he said.
“We were tasked with governing the state of Minnesota and there were things from a global pandemic to a long-overdue reckoning on social justice and economic uncertainty,” he said. “Now is the time for us to get back to work. I will work with anyone who is willing to make things better for Minnesota.” He said he wasn’t naive enough to expect that the next four years will be crisis-free but said his administration has learned from the hurdles of the last four.
But he also said the “changed dynamic” of the Legislature means “we’re not going to see things that Minnesotans need get stalled.” He said he was open to a lame-duck special session to pass funding for local public safety costs. He also said issues he’s backed in the past such as rebate checks, the end of state taxation on Social Security and even sports betting could be back on the table.
Finally, Walz was asked whether one of the top issues presented by Republicans – rising crime rates and an assertion that Walz and DFLers didn’t adequately respond – didn’t resonate with voters despite polling that said it did. Walz won easily but the attacks against Ellison and Hennepin County attorney winner Mary Moriarty also weren’t enough to cause them to lose.
Walz said the GOP’s message lacked solutions.
“The public understands that crime is a complex issue,” Walz said. “I don’t think they think there’s an easy fix on that. Crime being up is unacceptable. You’re not going to hear us stop talking about it.”
“A lot of Minnesotans said pointing out that problem without offering a solution does us nothing,” he added. “I heard about it on the campaign. They were concerned about it. But they are concerned about solutions.”
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly described the PRO Act. The story has been updated.
Walz might be right that the MNGOP problem wasn’t that they attacked on the wrong issues, but that they attacked on the right issues without ever saying what they would do. I never heard a Republican say what should be done about inflation, and I maybe just assumed some resumption of “tough on crime”. It’s telling that DFL leaders have to figure out their agenda: didn’t they just campaign on that? No, because it was a defensive agenda: we’re going to defend voting rights, etc. They seem as stunned as I am as a grassroots Democrat at having the trifecta. I assumed both houses were lost and I focused my volunteer efforts on the statewide races.
The Republicans did so poorly at the statewide because they put forth such weak candidates. Walz and Ellison were particularly vulnerable. Both of their opponents lacked experience and any evidence of coherence and depth of thought. Jensen, a one-term state senator who apparently thought so little of his experience with the Legislature that he didn’t even bother to run for re-election, came into the race with the reputation as something of a moderate only to swing far to the right, but then to backtrack on those views as well. Left with Walz or a bowel of jello for choices, it’s no wonder the governor won.
I don’t like Ellison. His actions and views regarding the police really upset me. But the idea of Schulz as AG seemed ridiculous. A corporate hedge fund lawyer with zero prosecutorial experience and a johnny-one-note on the issue crime was hardly a realistic alternative. It was like a replay of the 2018 race when a similarly weak candidate, Doug Wardlow, was put forth.
I’m not looking for reasons to vote for Republicans, per se, but sometimes I’d like to fine some alternatives. I’m not seeing them with the offerings of the MN Republican Party.
Bingo
Yeah, I’m actually looking for competitive candidates, ironically the last one was Arnie C, standing Governor, not endorsed by his own party for reelection and he won with almost 64% of the vote, seems the “R” folks don’t like candidates that take good healthy (good for all of MN) political positions and win, better to move to the extremist view point and lose.
The election sent the message that those connected at the hip with Trump show poor judgment. I think that was a big factor for Jensen, Birk and Crockett. Jensen anti COVID protection, Birk as condescending to women and Crockett trying to reduce voting participation.
Population continues to shift away from rural areas and the young people who move to the metro and larger cities are more open to new ideas than their parents or grandparents. The state is also becoming more diverse all the time, with more of our people are hurt by conservative straight white men’s desire to control things when they only account for about one in four state residents is becoming less and less realistic.
If Republicans want to become more relevant they must go beyond being critics to advancing ideas that improves the lives of everyone who lives here. Conservatives used to do this, but seem to have forgotten how. We are a great state only as politics focus on creating solutions not feeding grievances and pointing fingers.
All this did was to expedite the continued republican migration to the southern states, so don’t expect any worthy or interested republican candidates any time soon. All of my republican relatives are now in Texas or Arizona. Over 800 people a day move to Florida. Last one out, turn out the lights.
If our country doesn’t get serious about dealing with climate change and income inequity, moving south (especially to Florida) might not be such a good idea.
Since Minnesota continues to gain population, I don’t think the Flight of the Rightwingers is doing a lot of damage.
Don’t let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya.
If the GOP couldn’t do it this time, then when? You had a governor who encouraged protesting while the cities burned, an AG who threw the book at a cop who made a mistake, and a leadership who somehow missed the biggest public fraud (Feeding Our Future) ever. When will the DFL be as vulnerable again?
“an AG who threw the book at a cop who made a mistake”
A mistake?
Maybe 30 days without pay?
An apology?
“I’ll never again intentionally kneel on someone’s neck until they are dead, sorry about that”
A new low in commenting sensibilities.
I was referring to Potter. Do you not follow the news cycle? Potter and mistake were front and center, and yet you thought I was referring to Chauvin? Really? I’d call this a new low in… something.
The news cycle told us that the initial charging document came from the Hennepin County DA
Ellison later took over and added to the charges
And a jury of Potter’s peers found her guilty of the charges
Something that is generally accepted as proof of appropriate charging in the first place
What do you know that the jury did not?
I make no judgments. My point is it was controversial, as was the response to riots, as was the Feed Our Future scandal. The DFL would prefer these not be issues. But they were, and they still won easily. So like I said, if the GOP can’t do it this time, when? Maybe never.
For someone who claims to make no judgements, this seems pretty judgmental:
“an AG who threw the book at a cop who made a mistake,“
“Ellison later took over and added to the charges” Exactly.
She was referring to Kim Potter, I’m sure. She should never have been charged with a crime.
He’s not talking about George Floyd.
Yeah Edward… having lost on manufactured grievances organized around the Floyd riots… now it’s time to shift to complaints about Potter. I know… it’s hard to follow this shifting logic of false pretense, but not to worry… they’ll get no more traction whining about Potter than they did car jackings and food fraud.
Ooh, must be a few dollars left after all.
What makes you keep saying I’m getting paid? Because I’m smart? And you’re not because you’re… ?
Ethical.
You accuse me of being unethical? On what basis?
Because you are misstating what I just said. I never said you were unethical, I said Mr. Haas is ethical.
I misstate nothing. If an action is ethical, the opposite is unethical.
If a person is labeled as ethical, no judgment is passed on the ethics of others. No comment was made about any actions.
You can do all the jiu jitsu you want. But when you say someone does the opposite because they’re ethical the meaning is clear. And now you’re running for the doors.
In some parts of the English-speaking world, the metaphor “flogging a dead horse” is rendered as “flogging a dead dog.”
No, I don’t know why that sprang to mind right now.
That’s what did it for you?
An inability to accept proven fact because it differs from a preferred narrative was one factor among many that demonstrated Jensen’s unfitness for office
You think passing on stories like that indicates a candidate with good judgement in other areas?
why not? If a pol is going to make such a ridiculous lie about that, what else will they be lying about?
I would hope some base level of honesty would be required of any candidate you vote for. Since MAGA, I’m realizing this fundamental virtue is no longer a consideration for some.
If you’re saying Jensen created more than enough suspicion regarding competence, a weak candidate who made it easy to vote against the man, I agree.
I’m saying if this is the best the GOP can do, with an election ripe for change, the GOP is sunk.
Well, you start with a lie an it’s downhill from there. Walz never encouraged riots, he deployed the State Patrol and National Guard to stop them. Potter killed an unarmed teenager, that’s not just a little “ooops”, it’s a crime. And the AG and education officials discovered the fraud, stopped the payments, and referred it to the feds, who were running the program that was being defrauded. A federal program that began under Trump by the way.
You can assemble these grab bags of manufactured grievances and run on them if you want… but you’ll lose. And you obviously STILL don’t get that because here you are… trying to sell it again.
These “manufactured grievances” are all facts, and remain so. Your only contribution is to wildly misstate them, and ignore my point.
You may have forgiven our leadership for smoldering cities, hysteria-driven justice, and the wholesale fleecing of public coffers. And enough of your friends did to put them back in office. But they were in charge when it happened, and it’s like giving the keys back to the drunk who just wrecked your car.
You can double down on falsehoods all you want but that can never actually make them “facts”. And the inability or simple refusal recognize your own falsehoods betrays a basic level of intellectual and moral vacuity that doesn’t bode well for future relevance.
The statements in my post were not “falsehoods”, but facts:
1. “You had a governor who encouraged protesting while the cities burned”. Walz did encourage protests, even though riots broke out nightly. It is a fact, we all remember this, but in case you need help see https://www.cbsnews.com/video/minnesota-governor-tim-walz-says-majority-of-protesters-are-outsiders/#x Note the headline as Walz speaks: “State leaders call for peaceful protests”.
2. “an AG who threw the book at a cop who made a mistake”. Ellison did do this, and it is a simple fact: https://www.kare11.com/article/news/local/first-degree-manslaughter-charge-added-to-case-against-former-brooklyn-center-police-officer-kim-potter/89-effbca6e-d532-4dac-96ea-8623351cc6ad
3. “a leadership who somehow missed the biggest public fraud (Feeding Our Future) ever”. This is fact. It happened on the governor’s watch. I did NOT say he’s guilty. Only that it happened while he was in charge, an unfortunate fact to deal with in an election. But a fact nonetheless.
It’s not a shortage of “worthy and interested” candidates, it is a shortage of sane Republican’s willing to give them a shot. Today’s GOP would call Reagan a RINO. Kinzinger and Cheney are as conservative as anyone can get. Your earlier suggestion that they should become Democrats shows that conservative values are very low priority in today’s R party.
And of course, none of those folks are going to want “free stuff” like government assistance after a hurricane! Yep, true dyed in the wool “R” folks!
When they move to Florida, do they buy that socialist government home owners insurance?
Even in those red states, private markets fail, and taxpayers pick up the tab.
You’re back! With predictably useless takeaways! You make it sound like fewer conservatives is a BAD thing.
Democrats did screw up in Florida by nominating a political opportunist – who changes parties on a whim – just to run for something. Texas had shenanigans because the most populated county – Harris Co – had two hours less for voters to cast their ballots than is guaranteed by the state’s constitution, but if you pay attention to voter trends, Texas is slowly shifting. Arizona is on its way to a Democratic governor and Democratic Secretary of State, because Republicans nominated crazy election deniers. Mark Kelly just beat Blake Masters. In Nevada, Cortez-Masto will hold her seat, which means Dems retain the Senate and Warnock’s victory in the run-off will be 51. The South is not as “red” as many would like to believe.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) should be on the DFLs agenda as well. Let’s not waste this opportunity. The NPVIC has passed in 16 states now representing 195 EC votes. MI Dems won a trifecta. Add MNs 10 and MIs 15 votes and that’ll leave just 50 EC votes to get to 270.
Exactly!
I just wrote my D State Senator and Rep that now is the time for NPV passage in MN
Nobody ran a campaign based on the national popular vote compact and very few voters care about this. There is only so much time in a legislative session and this can’t be a top priority.
It’s interesting to see the hatred for Ellison. Haters are opposed to.. consumer protection? Freedom to control our own bodies? Perhaps they’re offended that Ellison wants us all to pay less for items which are price gouged? If you’re a republican complaining about high prices, Ellison is your friend and ally, despite his religion and skin color which may offend you. To oppose him is a sign of ignorance, for which he probably forgives you.
“despite his religion and skin color which may offend you”
Really?? You had to go there.
Maybe it’s because he has been a progressive leader and that is not in line with what our country is.
Being a progressive is his bona fide track record. There is nothing wrong in criticizing that.
Falsely accusing others simply on religion and skin color when nothing is there is something that just has to end.
So, reverse the results and Schultz wins by ,84% and you would maintain that being a Black guy and a Muslim had no effect on the results?
Fine people on both sides right?
Maybe it’s because he has been a progressive leader and that is not in line with what our country is.
Umm….checks notes
You DO realize conservatives just massively underperformed in virtually every non-gerrymandered election in the country based on the premise that they are part of some massive “silent majority” waiting to let themselves be heard right?
The deep, deep antipathy for Ellison is the rightwing frustration of the DFLers lock on AG office for what will be 60 years at the end of Ellisons second term. Consumer protection, environment, health care are the AG issues that conservative economic forces cannot overcome alone. So they exploited the images of a Black Muslim man, Ellison as the procrime candidate to scare and dupe voters into becoming part of their coalition. Their failure should make Minnesotans proud.
BTW the story of the DFL lock on the AG post would make an interesting article. (I would elaborate on the topic, but Minnpost has a habit of losing the contributions I put more time and thought into.)
Funny how the Conservatives, well not just Conservatives, here fail to understand what happened. Apparently, people don’t think attacking our capital and trying to stop the peaceful transfer of power is good thing or that refusing to accept the results of a free and fair election is a good thing or that taking away the rights of women is a good thing or that threatening the rights of others is a good thing. Who knew? Democrats have never been good at constructing a narrative around the folks on the other side, but fortunately for them the Republicans did that for them. The things listed above showed the voters what Republicans are really all about and they rejected that.
The people apparently know what they want and they’re going to get it good and hard.
The good old
“When my people win the voters are over flowing with wisdom”
And when the opposite happens:
“Boy, are they stupid”
It’s not THAT hard to believe that Fascism isn’t as popular as some think it is, and it’s is a relief to see MN voters push it back. But we’re not out of the woods yet, it remains to be seen whether or not Democrats will build on this victory or blow it like they did the last time they had a “trifecta” and lost it after just two years. Let’s hope they have the courage and foresight to pursue the liberal agendas and policies that will propel them into even greater and more sustained power this time.
It was Gen Z that propelled Democrats to victory here. 2022 was the Democrats’ best mid-term victory since 1986. We’re obviously going to keep the US Senate, and there’s still – at the time I type this comment, 10:32am CST, 11/12/2022 – a path for Democrats to retain the US House. My biggest fear is that party leaders (at the state level and nationally) will continue to ignore the will of the youth.
Mike: agreed.
Well, and here’s the other thing that we can’t overlook: this isn’t just about winning or losing elections. The last time Democrats were in power… worse… far worse than merely losing that power in the next election cycles, was the fact that they deliberately left multiple issues and problems on the table. Rather than pushing ahead on several fronts and resolving a number of budget and infrastructure issues conclusively, they deliberately dialed back opportunities out of fear of losing votes… and then they lost the votes anyways and we were left holding the bag. So don’t do THAT again.
I don’t know about anyone else but simply seeing Democrats in office doesn’t float MY boat unless their doing the job and getting stuff done. If they’re going to lose anyways I’d be left without ongoing crises and systemic problems that could have and should have been fixed.
Now I’ve I’ve never even run for office, but I think it’s actually common sense that it’s easier to campaign and win on a platform of getting things done and fixing things, than it is running on a platform of leaving crap on the table because you were afraid of losing if you satisfied too many voters. But again… win or lose, always do the job; if you win great, if you lose at least your not leaving a bunch garbage on the table that the poor bastards who vote for you have to go on living with.