Welcome back, fellow seekers of wisdom and truth,

We’re officially into 2010 now, the year of (in addition to Minnesota’s epochal gubernatorial election) a crucial midterm election for all U.S. House seats a third of the U.S. Senate. I’ll get to work on an overview, but wanted to put on your radar screens the possibility of a Senate seat in play in neighboring North Dakota.

Soon after I left on winter break, Rasmussen Reports published a poll that showed that (if the election were held today etc.) Republican Gov. John Hoeven would crush Dem. incumbent Sen. Byron Dorgan by a truly impressive 58-36 percent.

Hoeven, however, has not committed to run for the seat. If he did, I sincerely doubt he would win by 20 points. Dorgan is more popular than that poll makes him look, is sitting on $4 million in his campaign warchest (very serious money in a small-population state like NoDak) and has won his three previous Senate races by 20 percentage points or more. Rasmussen, a prolific robo-poller, is not rated the most reliable of pollsters and has recently come under increasing allegations of a Republican bias (on which I take no position). But Hoeven is a very popular governor and — despite its long habit of electing fiscally conservative Dems to Congress — North Dakota is a red state that went for McCain by nine points and has given it’s electoral votes to a Democrat exactly once since 1937!).

Jim Geraghty of the National Review (where the hope for a Hoeven candidacy is palpable) writes today about why Hoeven hasn’t decided (he’s got universal name recognition and since he’s the only Republican who would have a strong chance against Dorgan he isn’t worried about the nomination).

The NoDak situation highlights what the professionals know about the midterms, that candidate recruitment is huge. No duh.

 

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11 Comments

  1. If so ND would be losing a longtime senator with all that entails. Are the old plains states with their known retail politics losing out to bigger national interests? Pressler, Daschle in SD lost their seats. Whats up across the valleys?

  2. Rasmussen is one of the most accurate pollsters around because he polls likely voters. In 2006 and 2008, liberals thought he was fine when his polling revealed voters liked Democrats. Now that his polling is illustrating the Republican surge, they question his accuracy. It is typical liberal behavior.

  3. Gov Hoeven is not the only Republican that could take down Sen Dorgan, former Gov Schafer would also win by a wide margin. I can’t really complain to much about the three stooges, Dorgan, Conrad, and Pomeroy. All are reasonable North Dakotians that act in best interests of the states residents. Both of our Senators are exponentially better representatives of their residents then the joke that is Minnesota. At some point life it would be nice to see some new faces in the Senate. I can’t remember anytime in my life that those three haven’t be in office. I think two of the three were former Tax Commissioners, exceptional pedigree! Just above Comedian, what a joke.

  4. Unfortunately, the fact remains that Rasmussen polls are based on robo-polling which has many selection biases (such as leaving out the 20% of the population that has given up landlines for cell phones).

  5. How accurate is Rasmussen? Very, according to this study of the 2008 presidential rate by, Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D., Department of Political Science Fordham University
    For inquiries: cpanagopoulo@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069. Dr. Panagopolous wrote” . . . To assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength. Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were
    perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).

    The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national pre-
    election polls (as reported on pollster.com).

    1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
    1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
    2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
    3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
    4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
    5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
    5. ARG (10/25-27)*
    6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
    6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
    7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
    8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
    9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
    10. FOX (11/1-2)
    11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
    12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
    13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
    14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
    15. Marist College (11/3)
    16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
    17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
    18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
    19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
    20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

  6. Geez JJ what do you think an organization does? It raises funds and meets its demands whether it be roads to bring products to market or educating the citizens of tomorrow. Calling elected representatives of whatever party a joke or demeaning the role of comissioners (tax or otherwise) seems to point out a failure to grasp at basic things in the real world. Ever heard of anti emperical belief systems? Probably not. I am proud to have been a dakotan and you oughta go out to the grain drying bin until you have something decent to say. Losing seniority privileges is costly to a state especially if you aline yourself with what is increasingly becoming a small regional minority party.

  8. On Polls:

    I note it is the final polls, a day or so before the election, that are rated by Panagopoulos.

    While they may suggest that Rasmussen polling methods have some validity, they are far from suggesting that a poll taken months before has the same weight.

  9. Dan,

    Are you serious? I love North Dakota. They have two good Democrats as Senators that were formerly tax commissioners and I as a tax accountant know that there is few better place to gain an understanding of government inefficiencies than tax compliance. Maybe Tom Bakk should take a page from Sens Conrad and Dorgan, before his next regurgitation. I was making a joke of junior Senator from MN and his underwhelming background. As far as government goes I can’t name a single aspect of government that MN does better than ND. Well unless waste money counts.

  10. Dan, if after the 2010 elections the House and Senate are back close to a 50/50 status, will you change your mind about ‘small regional minority party’?

  11. It’s been around a quarter of century since a Republican was part of the ND Congressional Delegation. So while the state offices and presidential preferences might indicate solid “red”, there is a surprisingly long unbroken ribbon of “blue” representing North Dakota in the US House of Representatives and US Senate.

    Those NoDaks have a peculiar set of measuring sticks that don’t work quite the same when applied to state offices, congressional offices or presidential elections.

    Those that don’t understand that often have trouble describing the state as “blue” or “red”.

    Especially in this day of increasingly polarized and small-tent politics, look for North Dakota to elect a Senator who it thinks will put North Dakota and the public interest before their own ambition or their party caucus.

    That means you have to be flexible enough to work with folks from the other side, but strong enough to stand up to the folks on your side.

    Especially where the Republican minority in the US Senate seems intent on lock-step obstructionism, it will be critical to know if Hoeven has the grit to walk his own path if his conscience dictates it or if he will lapse into partisan role-playing.

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